BofA Securities: Sustained rises in oil prices could push interest rates significantly higher.
12 minutes ago
Bank of America Securities noted in a research report that if crude oil and refined product prices rise further in the next three to six months, it could lead to a "significant rise in interest rates". The U.S. two-year nominal interest rate swap, which reflects market expectations for interest rates over the next two years, has risen 113 basis points so far this year. However, Bank of America pointed out that on trading days when oil prices rose, this rate increased by a cumulative 196 basis points; on other trading days, it fell by a cumulative 83 basis points. The volatility of interest rates in the UK and Germany is even more pronounced. Bank of America believes that if energy inflation rises, the Federal Reserve may face fewer constraints when considering interest rate hikes, as U.S. economic growth and consumer performance are resilient, and the labor market remains relatively tight.
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