U.S. October unemployment rate hits 4.1%, below expectations.

U.S. October non-farm payroll growth exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, showing the labor market remains resilient and giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to shift policy focus to inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, while the September figure was revised up to a 60,000 gain from the initial 29,000, against market expectations of just a 65,000 increase. Economists estimate the U.S. economy needs to create at least 40,000 jobs monthly to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Due to a shrinking labor force, this so-called "jobs balance level" has dropped from around 150,000 in 2024 to its current level. With layoff rates at historic lows and a sharp recent rise in job openings, this has further fueled expectations that the labor market may be tightening. However, economists and Fed officials have consistently held that the labor market does not pose an inflation risk. Some economists point out that against the backdrop of tightened immigration policies and population retirements, the shrinking labor supply is the main reason for the U.S.'s relatively low unemployment rate.

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Ahead of the release of U.S. October non-farm payrolls data, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 27.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in December, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike stands at 72.8%. For next January, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 21.6%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 63.4%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 15.1%.

US October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls came in at 165,000, above the expected 65,000, with the prior figure revised from 29,000 to 60,000.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures declined following the release of non-farm payroll data, as traders ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. Earlier reports indicated that U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for October reached 165,000, far outpacing the 65,000 market expectation, while the prior figure was revised from 29,000 to 60,000.

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