Kalshi: Trading volume on markets tied to U.S. midterm elections exceeded $2.5 billion, roughly double that of the 2024 election cycle.

Prediction market platform Kalshi released its review of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, stating that related markets recorded a cumulative trading volume exceeding $2.5 billion, higher than the $1.3 billion in the 2024 election cycle. According to the platform’s statistics, as of 6:00 AM ET on November 4, out of 487 concluded elections, candidates favored by the markets won 479 races, accounting for approximately 98%. Kalshi noted that markets leaned toward Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress and most governorships ahead of Election Day, and led TV networks in reporting results in most races by several hours. At 8:10 PM ET on November 3, the market probability of Democrats controlling the House of Representatives hit 99%; at 9:00 PM ET, the probability of them controlling the Senate surpassed 99%. However, the platform also pointed out that while traders had previously favored Democrats winning more than 230 House seats and 51 Senate seats, they had not fully priced in scenarios of larger victories. Per the review’s assessment at the time of release, Democrats were likely to secure over 250 House seats and more than 56 Senate seats, with some key races still undecided at that point. Kalshi also plans to continue expanding its international election markets and is building a dedicated 2028 U.S. presidential election section, covering markets for candidates, Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, and final election winners.