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德银：SpaceX政治风险被高估，算力供给收紧反而推高公司收入

22 hours ago

，德意志银行最新研报指出，市场对中期选举后 SpaceX 面临政治报复的担忧被显著高估，该行维持其「买入」评级及 250 美元目标价。德银认为，SpaceX 的核心合同均由 NASA、太空军等联邦行政机构签订，国会干预空间极为有限，且多数业务领域目前不存在可行的替代供应商。即使 SpaceX 与特斯拉寻求合并，国会也无权直接阻止，仅能通过听证程序拖延。真正值得关注的近期风险来自得克萨斯州候任州长对数据中心的强硬表态，但这更可能导致更严格的审查而非全面禁止。由于 SpaceX 2027 年的绝大部分算力将部署在得州以外，短期冲击有限，但 2028 年及以后的扩张计划存在不确定性可能转向路易斯安那州等地。德意志银行报告进一步提出了一个反向逻辑：若得州政策导致美国整体算力扩张放缓，SpaceX 反而可能从中受益。由于其算力建设比竞争对手更快、成本更低，且新云合同设有 90 天取消条款，SpaceX 能在现货价格上涨时灵活捕捉上行空间。若全行业算力供给受限，SpaceX 有能力大幅提高定价，从而推动收入和 EBITDA 上升。针对得州的政策不确定性，马斯克近期表示「太空中的数据中心现在看起来相当有吸引力」。德银指出，星舰的可复用性将是解锁轨道数据中心经济性的关键，基准预测到 2029 年底部署规模可达 500 兆瓦。在发射业务方面，由于审批监管属联邦 FAA 职责，得州州长无法直接干预，但可通过土地使用权和州级许可等增加星际基地的扩建难度。

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