Analysis: On-chain data shows real Bitcoin (BTC) panic, with long-term holders "capitulating" while panic-driven sell-offs accelerate liquidation.

On-chain analyst Murphy published an analysis dissecting Bitcoin’s real market panic level using on-chain data. He pointed out that on November 5, the realized loss of long-term holders (LTH-RLTE) transferred to trading platforms reached $139 million—only exceeded in February and June this year in the past 12 months, signaling severe market anxiety, with even long-term holders starting to "capitulate" and exit. Conversely, this often means the liquidation of panic-driven positions is speeding up. In comparison, short-term holders haven’t "panicked into indiscriminate selling": they completed most of their turnover at the start of the year, with current average cost around $75,000 to $76,000, and the current price is near their break-even line, so most choose to hold and wait. Overall, the absolute value of the 24-hour average on-chain realized loss remains high. Hit by both the Binance hack at the end of October and the November 5 US stock market crash, market confidence has taken a hit, directly triggering panic among long-term holders. However, the overall realized loss scale hasn’t continued to expand. Murphy believes investors are currently in a psychological state of "unwilling but forced to sell at a loss", and sentiment recovery will require a catalyst: when people gradually realize the actual situation isn’t as bad as expected.