CryptoQuant: Analyst sentiment has entered a clearly bearish zone, with the market consensus index dropping significantly.

Investment bank Baird has downgraded Nvidia’s rating from Outperform to Neutral, cutting its price target from $500 to $200, a 60% reduction. Analyst Tristan Gerra warned that 2027 data center-related expectations could be delayed due to supply constraints, weakening demand, and reduced visibility. The AI spending growth rate of hyperscale cloud vendors may slow to 40% or lower in 2027, while 10% to 30% of channel orders could face early cuts. While demand for the H300 remains strong, Baird also noted uncertainty surrounding CEO Jensen Huang’s tenure extending through 2027. The firm stated that Nvidia’s AI business fundamentals remain strong, but growth expectations and leadership risks could exert significant pressure on its stock price.

Nvidia and its founder Jensen Huang are facing a shareholder class-action securities lawsuit, alleging their misconduct and misleading statements harmed investors’ interests. In response to US President Donald Trump’s public support for Huang, the case’s lead attorney Laurence Rosen stated that Trump’s claim that Huang was unaware of the matter, and Nvidia’s board’s assertion that national security was not compromised, even if true, do not dictate the case’s outcome. Rosen stressed that the core of the lawsuit hinges on whether the October 9, 2025 statement regarding Singapore-based firm Megaspeed was misleading, and existing facts back this conclusion. Currently, the lawsuit only names Nvidia and Huang as defendants; Rosen noted it has not yet been decided whether to add additional defendants including Nvidia board members. Per US federal securities laws, the deadline for the case’s lead plaintiff application is January 8, 2027.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost points out that the losses of short-term holders (STH) are starting to show on the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator. This metric measures realized profit or loss when unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are spent; the STH’s SOPR has now dropped to 0.98. The indicator has remained in negative territory since October 30, meaning short-term holders are beginning to feel pressure from falling prices. Previously, the monthly average SOPR for this group hit 1.013, but it has now just fallen back to the neutral level of 1, indicating their average profits have largely evaporated. Combining recent data, the analyst believes the market is leaning toward "capitulation" and panic selling. Against the backdrop of a longer-term bull market, a SOPR drop into negative territory often signals a strong buying opportunity. However, the current monthly average has not yet reflected extreme panic, suggesting the current capitulation trend may persist for several days until it reaches a truly extreme level.

According to data from BIT Stock Platform, U.S. pre-market trading saw AI cloud service provider CoreWeave (CRWV.O) rise as much as 17%, and is now up 13.5% at $55.3. CoreWeave released its financial results this morning: third-quarter revenue jumped 167% year-over-year to $3.66 billion, beating the market expectation of $3.55 billion; its per-share loss was $0.95, narrower than the projected $1.16. The company projects it will achieve adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028. CoreWeave raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $12.4–13.2 billion to $13–13.3 billion, and increased the lower end of its full-year expense guidance by $20 billion, with the new range standing at $37–39 billion. As of the end of September, the company’s signed but unrecognized revenue reached $132.5 billion, up from $104 billion at the end of June. Third-quarter capital expenditure rose to $14.5 billion from $9.4 billion in the prior quarter.

CoinShares has released its October digital asset fund manager survey. This round featured 28 investors, representing approximately $642 billion in assets under management (AUM). The average allocation to crypto assets in respondents' portfolios rose to 1.3% from 1.2% in July. Funds are increasingly shifting from stocks and bonds to alternative assets such as commodities and crypto, rather than cash. The largest allocators remain groups with more flexible mandates, including family offices and individual investors. Regarding investment motivations, portfolio diversification climbed to 40% as the top reason, a trend that has persisted since the survey’s launch in 2021. Speculation has fallen to fifth place, accounting for less than 9% of responses. More respondents now view crypto as having allocation value, while replies citing client demand as an investment driver have dropped significantly. In holdings-related responses, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain core positions, together making up 47% of allocations. Bitcoin still holds a substantial lead in growth outlook assessments, while the outlooks for Ethereum and Solana have improved slightly. Respondents are shifting from established altcoins outside Ethereum to newer tokens, with Sui, NEAR, Aave, Hyperliquid, Uniswap, and Chainlink being frequently mentioned.

Binance Research’s latest report notes that while institutional capital has flooded the crypto market, it is flowing primarily into passive beta products such as ETFs, with the active management segment lagging behind. The core reason is not a lack of talent or returns, but the absence of a "discovery and validation" intermediary layer connecting capital and managers. Currently, funding for crypto active strategies remains heavily reliant on personal networks and conferences, with a lack of standardized performance verification and benchmark systems. Surveys show 80% of asset allocators prioritize asset safety over historical returns; verified trading platform data significantly strengthens due diligence, while managers cite hard-to-verify performance and lengthy compliance reviews as the biggest barriers to fundraising. Capital Connect data reveals extreme polarization in capital allocation: directional strategies account for 44.3% of total funds but hold only 6.7% of capital. Conversely, market-neutral, statistical arbitrage, and traditional multi-strategy funds, though making up less than half of total funds, have attracted 92.1% of capital. The average institutional investment size in neutral strategies is roughly 11 times that of directional strategies. In October, BTC fell 7.2%, but directional funds posted an average +1.9% positive return, while neutral strategies gained +1.0%, confirming active strategies’ resilience amid downturn pressure. Binance Research concludes that institutional preferences and the introduction of traditional structures are driving the crypto market toward maturity, yet allocators remain highly selective. Only a robust validation system and operational infrastructure can truly unlock inflows of active management capital.