Barclays: The US-Iran conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and the "no war, no peace" stalemate is likely to persist until the end of Trump's term.
36 minutes ago
Barclays noted in a new report that the likelihood of the U.S.-Iran conflict ending within the next year is less than 50%, with a "prolonged stalemate" now the baseline scenario. Analyst Michael McLean said both sides believe time is on their side, making a near-term substantive agreement highly unlikely. The U.S. may maintain a "no war, no peace" deadlock with Iran, and even prepare for the conflict to last through the end of Trump’s term. Barclays outlined three potential paths for the U.S.: further escalation, long-term status quo, and withdrawal. Among these, prolonged stalemate is the most likely: both sides will continue intermittent tit-for-tat strikes, nuclear talks will make little progress, and the U.S. will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz. The report added that Middle East oil exports have recovered to around 85% of pre-conflict levels, and the global economy has grown more resilient to oil price shocks, reducing the urgency for all parties to end the conflict quickly. Historical data also shows that the longer a war lasts, the lower its likelihood of ending soon. Citing data on 95 interstate wars between 1823 and 2003, Barclays noted that wars that have lasted 6 to 12 months have a roughly 57% chance of ending within a year; for wars that have already lasted 8 months, the average remaining duration is 1.8 years. By contrast, further U.S. military escalation faces risks including Iranian retaliation and opposition from Gulf states, while a unilateral withdrawal could lead to the U.S. losing control of the Strait of Hormuz and trigger a crisis in its regional influence and international credibility. Barclays concluded that both escalation and withdrawal have clear obstacles, making maintaining the status quo the more likely outcome.
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