Analyst: Bitcoin’s momentum indicators have weakened; if historical bearish patterns repeat, BTC could drop below $60,000.
19 minutes ago
Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole noted in a post that Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram dropped below the zero line this week, signaling weakening price momentum. The weekly bearish signal will only be confirmed if the histogram remains negative at Sunday’s weekly close. At press time, Bitcoin trades at around $69,000; a 16% drop would push it below $60,000, approaching this year’s low of roughly $57,700. Statistics show that since November 2012, Bitcoin’s weekly MACD has generated 24 bearish signals. Of those, in 13 cases, Bitcoin fell at least 16% from the signal confirmation before the indicator turned bullish again. Among these 13 instances, 5 saw the decline hit within a week, 10 within four weeks, with a median time of three weeks. Notably, in November 2018 and February 2014, Bitcoin dropped 38% and 35% respectively within a week after signal confirmation. Conversely, the other 11 times saw declines of less than 16%. The most recent bearish signal occurred in June this year, when Bitcoin only fell around 3% to $57,700 before rebounding. The current signal emerges amid outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a strengthening U.S. dollar, though a single technical indicator is insufficient to determine whether Bitcoin will retest this year’s low.
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