After the release of PPI data, money markets have priced down the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December.

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Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee said inflation is broad-based and moving in the wrong direction. He noted that one should not feel complacent just because wage inflation has not materialized, adding that inflation will determine the path of interest rates. "I agree the Federal Reserve still has work to do on inflation," he stated.

U.S. producer prices rose further in October, marking the largest annual increase in four years, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again after the widely anticipated rate hike next month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that October PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the 0.4% consensus estimate, with the prior month’s figure revised up to 1.4%. Last month’s producer prices were lifted by a 0.5% gain in goods prices, driven mainly by food and basic organic chemicals. Services prices rose 0.2%, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases. October PPI surged 6.5% year-on-year, the largest annual rise since November 2022, following a 6.3% increase in September. The report arrives after this week’s October CPI data came in hotter than expected. Additionally, October nonfarm payrolls surged as released last week, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% from 4.2% in September. Combined with remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, this has left financial markets torn between pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in December and keeping the door open to a 50 basis point increase.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said excessive interest rate hikes would be inappropriate as the energy supply shock is set to subside. The Federal Reserve should focus on the future; the market is resilient, bond auctions are strong, and demand for the US dollar is robust. He voiced confidence in the economy, adding that conditions are very good with no warning signs.