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QCP: The shitcoin's longs may already be fully loaded, with any new USD inflows only flowing into Bitcoin

2025.02.25 17:24:31

On February 25th, QCP Asia disclosed the February 25th Market Observation. The specific details are as follows: "Bitcoin finally managed to break free from its range-bound trading and dropped below $90,000 for the first time in a month. It is currently hovering below that level, resulting in more than $200 million in liquidations in the past few hours. After Trump decided to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investments, market sentiment remains under pressure. As the Bitcoin price declines, short-term options hedging activities have witnessed an increase. The 1-month implied volatility has now rebounded to 50. Interestingly, the option skew remains relatively unchanged. From a more macro perspective, although the data previously thought to lead to a broader market softness, the stock, fixed income, and gold markets have largely absorbed these impacts. However, Bitcoin still remains within a certain range. The increasing Bitcoin dominance and the decline in altcoin prices indicate that altcoin bulls may have fully positioned themselves. Any additional inflows of the US dollar will only flow into Bitcoin. We remain cautious. The recent Bitcoin demand has mainly been driven by institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, which finance themselves through the issuance of stock-linked notes. Considering that over the past 14 months, cryptocurrency-related issuances have accounted for about 19% of total issuances, such financing markets may be approaching saturation, which could dampen future performance."
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