QCP: Risk-off Sentiment Triggers Bitcoin Sell-off, Market Confidence Lacking, Stagflation Risk Rises

According to data from Bitget, spot gold has fallen below the $4,100 per ounce threshold, hitting its lowest level since August 5, and is down 1.55% on the day. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to its highest level since 2002, standing at 5.3496%.

Stablecoin payment infrastructure provider Noah announced an additional $16 million in funding, bringing its total seed round financing to $38 million. Investors include Endeit Capital, FJ Labs, LocalGlobe, Felix Capital, and several angel investors. Noah reported that year-to-date revenue in 2026 has surged 538% compared to the same period in 2025, with monthly revenue growing by 31% on a consistent basis. The firm has added over 150 new clients this year, covering global platforms and financial institutions across sectors including remittances, fintech, online transaction platforms, and payroll services. Currently, Noah operates in more than 150 markets, supports over 60 currencies, and delivers cross-border payment infrastructure for businesses and individuals via direct services and partner channels. The new funding will be allocated to expanding regulatory coverage, hiring engineering and compliance personnel, and strengthening connections with local payment networks in major trading markets. Noah also plans to open an office in New York to accelerate its expansion into the U.S. market. Co-founder and CEO Shah Ramezani noted that the company aims to enable one-click international money transfers while ensuring full compliance throughout the fund sending and receiving processes.

A Reuters survey shows fixed-income strategists expect US Treasury yields to decline in the coming months. Despite the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield notching its largest quarterly gain since 1994, strategists are sticking to their long-held bearish outlook on yields. However, after repeatedly misjudging yield trends over the past nine months, market confidence in a yield decline is waning. Some strategists argue that financial markets have overpriced expectations for a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and the actual scale of rate increases may be lower than market forecasts. Meanwhile, driven by inflation concerns stemming from the US-Israel conflict with Iran and rising policy rates among major global central banks, government financing costs in multiple advanced economies have recently climbed to multi-decade highs. Tech giants are borrowing heavily to build AI infrastructure, and increased US Treasury issuance has also added further upward pressure on yields. The Reuters survey of nearly 60 strategists, carried out between October 5 and 7, projects the median forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield to hit 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% six months later, and 4.75% one year later.

US public company Genius Group (GNS) has announced it is resuming Bitcoin treasury purchases. Between October 2 and 5, the firm acquired 10 BTC for approximately $854,000, at an average price of $85,364 per Bitcoin. The move follows the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals’ August 31 ruling to vacate a preliminary injunction that had blocked Genius Group from issuing stock, raising capital, and purchasing Bitcoin. This latest buy marks the next step in the company’s $1.2 billion dual treasury capital plan, unveiled on August 27, which targets allocating $827 million in Bitcoin and $800 million in AI assets by fiscal year 2031, pushing total assets to $2 billion. Genius Group plans to continue accumulating Bitcoin while increasing its AI stock holdings. The company will fund its dual treasury purchases via operating cash flow, its previously announced perpetual preferred securities issuance program, and an at-the-market (ATM) stock offering mechanism, with the goal of boosting net asset value per share. Currently, the firm has no plans to acquire assets through debt financing or to pledge its held Bitcoin and AI stocks. CEO Roger James Hamilton noted that while this purchase is modest in scale, it signals the company’s restart of its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Europol has released two reports urging the crypto industry and policymakers to proactively prepare for the threat of quantum computing. The EU law enforcement agency’s European Cybercrime Centre identified crypto wallets as a primary risk point for quantum threats: a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling unauthorized asset transfers. By contrast, hash functions that underpin blockchains and mining remain largely resistant to quantum attacks. The reports note that cryptocurrencies will not collapse due to quantum computing, but recommend a phased migration to post-quantum cryptography, alongside improvements to wallet security and key management. For wallets whose public keys are already publicly visible on-chain, the reports advise moving funds before an attack occurs. The reports also point out that standardized post-quantum signatures are 10 to 120 times larger than Bitcoin’s current ECDSA signatures, which could increase block space pressure, drive up transaction fees, and slow transaction confirmations. The second report focuses on the "collect now, decrypt later" risk: attackers gather encrypted data now to crack it once quantum technology matures. There is currently no clear evidence that this tactic has been systematically or widely deployed, though government communications and corporate confidential data are seen as the most likely targets.

An Iranian senior official told Reuters that no negotiations are underway between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program. The official noted that there are disagreements between the U.S.’s approach to Iran’s nuclear plans and Iran’s demands, adding that Washington must first meet Tehran’s conditions before nuclear issues can be discussed. The official emphasized that Iran will never abandon its right to uranium enrichment, though details of enrichment can be discussed at a later time. He also stated that U.S. recognition of Iran’s uranium enrichment rights is Tehran’s red line, and described remarks made by U.S. Vice President Vance regarding Iran’s nuclear program as the U.S.’s “ideas and demands.”