Arthur Hayes: Expects Bitcoin to Continue Surging, Year-End Price Target Around $125,000

Matt Cole, CEO of Bitcoin treasury firm Strive, posted the message “Turn amplification up some more,” hinting that the company will increase its Bitcoin holdings next week. The move follows the practice of Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury company. Both firms have a pattern of posting hints about Bitcoin purchases on Sundays, then announcing the exact size of the holdings addition on the following Monday. Earlier on September 21, Strive’s Cole disclosed that the firm bought 1,355 BTC for $107.7 million, at an average cost of $79,475 per coin, bringing its total BTC holdings to 26,355.

According to Axios, one day after rejecting Iran’s proposal to end the war, U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects U.S. negotiators to hold more talks with Iran this week. Qatar and other regional mediators are attempting to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations, but the two sides have major differences on key issues. While Iran wants to focus talks on the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. maritime blockades, the Trump administration is demanding Iran make concessions on the nuclear issue. Two regional sources confirmed Trump’s remarks about more talks this week. They anticipate a new round of indirect dialogue between the U.S. and Iran as early as Monday, though it remains unclear whether the two sides can bridge their gaps. Trump stated: “I expect we will have more talks with Iran this week. They want to reach an agreement, but that’s not the agreement I want to make. That’s probably an agreement we would have agreed to a year ago. They misjudged the situation and are asking too much.”

Despite the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing to a nearly 20-year high, U.S. stocks have remained resilient, with the S&P 500 index seeing no notable impact. This divergence has prompted investors to re-examine the historical relationship between surging bond yields and stock market performance. Historical experience shows that rising yields do not necessarily trigger stock market declines. In 1994, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes triggered a bond market sell-off, pushing the S&P 500 down roughly 8% at one point, before the index clawed back losses as the economy and corporate earnings held up. In 2016, markets viewed rising yields as a sign of economic recovery and policy normalization, leading U.S. stocks to rise in tandem with Treasury yields. By contrast, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022 weighed on both bond and stock markets, resulting in a sharp drop for the S&P 500. In 2026, U.S. stocks are facing a similar scenario of rising yields paired with resilient economic growth. Large-scale investments in AI infrastructure by tech firms are supporting the economy and stock market, while a U.S.-Iran deal that could push oil prices lower may also ease inflationary pressures. However, bearish views argue that the Fed may need to keep raising rates until stocks and broader financial conditions are sufficiently tightened. Bank of America interest rate strategist Meghan Swiber noted that current strong performance in stocks and other risk assets has not yet sent the Fed a clear signal that demand is slowing.

Bitfinex released a graphic analysis noting that if Bitcoin breaks through $86,000, market supply above that level will drop sharply, leaving only approximately 23% of upside to reach $125,000. Over 1 million BTC are currently concentrated in the $84,000–$86,000 range, forming a key short-term resistance level. Separately, Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded a cumulative net inflow of around $2.98 billion over the past seven trading sessions, as the market gradually absorbs this supply pressure. If BTC closes above $87,400 and ETF inflows persist, it will indicate that buyers have successfully absorbed current selling pressure, and the overhead supply wall may subsequently weaken.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin announced in a post today that his original speculative sci-fi novel *Snowmoon* (《雪月》) is complete, spanning 32 chapters. Set in a world deeply reliant on cryptography and decentralized governance, the story focuses on ideological clashes between societies including Veridia and the Arctic Empire, integrating elements such as zero-knowledge proofs, quadratic voting, privacy technologies, and content-oriented tax mechanisms, while touching on mechanism design and digital sovereignty—topics Buterin has long prioritized. The novel is released under the GPL v3 license. Buterin noted that adaptations into films, animations, and other derivative works are permitted, though he requires open-sourcing of related production pipelines, including non-generic materials like AI prompts and scripts. He clarified that all text was written by himself, with AI only assisting in spelling and grammar checks, setting consistency verification, and web formatting, adding the note: “Snowmoon was written with love.”

According to Fox News, a Trump administration official stated that Iran is miscalculating if it believes rising prices and the midterm elections will weaken U.S. President Donald Trump’s leverage in negotiations to end the nearly seven-month conflict. Although no breakthrough was announced after the three-hour talks this week, the U.S. government remains confident that growing economic pressure will push Iran to reach an agreement. Tommy Pigott, the State Department’s chief deputy spokesperson, said President Trump holds all the cards.