Arthur Hayes: Expects Bitcoin to Continue Surging, Year-End Price Target Around $125,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told attendees at the Bitcoin 2026 conference on April 28 that he’s increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s future. AI is set to displace millions of knowledge workers—a shift that could saddle the banking system with hundreds of billions in credit losses, echoing the subprime mortgage crisis. But the U.S. is now at war, with its new defense budget poised to jump ~50% to $1.5 trillion. The U.S. government won’t cut spending; instead, it will print massive amounts of money. The enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rule, effective April 1, lets banks hold fewer reserves and more government bonds. S&P Global projects this will unlock ~$1.3 trillion in extra lending capacity for banks—primarily for defense firms and AI infrastructure. With a bank lending money multiplier of ~3, this could ultimately create ~$4 trillion in new credit. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Wash plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet while easing bank regulations, letting commercial banks load up on government bonds and repurchase agreements (repos). The net liquidity impact is neutral, but credit creation will shift from the central bank to commercial banks. Since new credit creation will outpace the credit disruption from AI, Bitcoin is set to keep climbing—with a year-end target of ~$125,000.