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According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil futures prices have broken through $95 per barrel, marking the first such occurrence since June 11. Currently, Brent crude spot trades at $91.27, up 2.15% intraday; WTI crude stands at $88.76, with a 4.41% daily gain.

Sources say Kuwait plans to issue U.S. dollar bonds on Wednesday. Over the past two weeks, the country has been hit by daily missile and drone attacks from Iran. Kuwait has hired banks including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup to arrange a three-part deal with tenors of three, five, and ten years. Final terms, including bond size and pricing, may be announced later Wednesday. Kuwait is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, and thanks to its vast oil reserves, it ranks among the world’s wealthiest nations. However, Iran has frequently carried out airstrikes on Kuwait in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, leaving the country’s economy under heavy pressure this year. In April, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated Kuwait’s fiscal deficit had surged to nearly 40% annualized, as the country was forced to suspend most oil exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Jinshi)

The Wall Street-favored "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is now gaining support from quantitative models. An analyst team from geopolitical advisory firm Signum Global Advisors used four indicators—Brent crude oil prices, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the S&P 500 index—to predict Trump may adjust his hardline policy toward Iran by the end of July. The model shows Trump typically needs a sharp market move of 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviations to trigger a policy shift, with an average threshold of around 2.9 standard deviations. Based on current market trends, analysts say the "TACO moment" has not arrived yet but is approaching, with the earliest possible date being July 22, the latest no later than July 30, and July 26 marked as the highest-probability date. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are currently driving up market pressure: Brent crude oil has topped $91 per barrel, and the average U.S. gasoline price has broken $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-June. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, rising war costs, and U.S. military casualties are adding to political pressure on the Trump administration. Republican insiders warn that if oil prices stay high for a prolonged period, energy costs could become a risk factor in the midterm elections. Conservative figures note that when oil prices break $90 during a ruling party’s tenure, it significantly erodes voter support. Analysts believe Trump’s current tough rhetoric may partly aim to force Iran back to the negotiating table, but as the conflict drags on, the U.S. government will face greater policy pressure between "escalating further" and "reducing military pressure."

The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the U.S. carrying out airstrikes against Iran for the 11th consecutive night, driving rising war costs. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said that so far, the U.S. government has invested at least $37.5 billion in the war against Iran, and if military operations continue, nearly double that amount may be needed in additional funding over the coming months. According to reports, some U.S. officials previously estimated that if costs including repairs to damaged military bases are factored in, the U.S. total war expenditure may have reached $80 billion to $100 billion. Meanwhile, military operations by both sides continue to expand. U.S. Central Command stated that the latest round of airstrikes targeted Iranian aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and other sites, aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, announced a new round of attacks on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The escalating conflict is also roiling global energy markets. Severe disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil and gas prices higher, while Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, further raising risks for Red Sea trade routes and prompting multiple vessels to reroute. Analysts note that as the U.S. faces growing domestic pressure from higher fiscal spending, rising energy prices, and new U.S. military casualties, political pressure on the Trump administration to end the conflict is mounting. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said the U.S. remains committed to a diplomatic solution, but questioned whether Iran is serious about engaging in negotiations.

According to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report, beyond tariff policies, the Trump administration is advancing a longer-term strategic initiative: signing agreements with major trade partners to establish a new generation of global trade rules centered on cross-border data flows, cloud computing, software, and artificial intelligence (AI). The report notes that 43 jurisdictions worldwide have implemented 146 digital trade barriers, including digital services taxes, data localization mandates, restrictions on cross-border data flows, and requirements for companies to surrender source code, technology, and commercial data. The U.S. argues that these rules are eroding the competitiveness of its domestic tech firms and digital economy. Recent agreements the U.S. has reached with countries including Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia include provisions banning forced technology transfers, guaranteeing free cross-border data flows, prohibiting governments from demanding companies submit source code, and maintaining duty-free status for electronic transmissions—seen as an initial framework for digital trade rules in the AI era. Analysts believe that future competition over international rules related to data governance, AI regulation, and digital trade standards will be a key arena in global economic rivalry.

According to Bitget's market data, WTI crude oil surged 4% intraday, currently trading at $88.42 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose over 2% to $91.17 per barrel.