Gemini co-founder: Zcash’s current hype resembles the crypto market’s momentum in 2019

A stronger U.S. dollar is generally seen as a headwind for U.S. dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and debt-denomination currency; when it appreciates, repayment costs for U.S. dollar debt borrowers rise, typically leading to reduced exposure to risk assets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen roughly 2.6% since September 9, hitting a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday. Bitcoin, after approaching $87,500 on September 21, has pulled back to the $83,000–$84,000 range. A stronger dollar may cap its upside, but the impact remains relatively limited for now. TradingView data shows that over the past 90 trading days, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY is -0.41, the lowest since February 2023, indicating the two tend to move inversely. However, the corresponding coefficient of determination is only 0.17, meaning the DXY explains roughly 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return volatility. The 30-day correlation coefficient between the two is -0.45, but this result is largely skewed by two exceptional sessions on August 19 and September 3, when Bitcoin rallied over 5% while the DXY fell. Excluding those two days, the correlation drops to -0.19. Looking at a longer timeline, since January 2020, the average 90-day correlation coefficient between the two is just -0.14, and it once rose to +0.22 in November 2024. Bitcoin also shows no significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, indicating its movements are largely driven by its own factors. Technically, the DXY has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud, but has not yet broken through the 101.80 resistance level. A breakout could end the sideways consolidation that has persisted since May 2025 and trigger an accelerated rally.

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. pension funds may sell roughly $33 billion in stocks around late September, a capital flow size at the 98th percentile since 2000. Meanwhile, systematic CTA capital flows could partially offset the pension selling pressure. If the stock market remains flat, CTAs are projected to buy $11.5 billion in global stocks; if the market rises, the purchase volume could approach $30 billion. If the market declines, CTAs may instead offload an additional $15.8 billion in stocks.

Multi-chain DEX Jumper announced in a post that Jumper Perps is now open to holders ranked in the top 1000 of XP, inviting relevant users to participate in the early test and provide feedback.

On September 1, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed its first major update to transfer agent rules since the late 1970s, explicitly including the use of blockchain technology by transfer agents in securities issuance and share transfers within its scope of consideration. This is not a full endorsement of tokenization, but rather a recognition of blockchain’s role in securities registration. If ownership data is stored separately in token wrappers, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), broker-dealers’ internal ledgers, and transfer agents’ off-chain databases, the market could face a repeat of the 1960s “paperwork crisis.” He argues that tokens themselves should serve as the official registration records for securities, rather than acting merely as digital wrappers for off-chain securities. Fairmint recommends that the SEC require filings to distinguish between native on-chain registration and third-party wrapper models, allow modern identification methods such as digital identities, cryptographic credentials, and wallets, and recognize compliance restrictions enforced via smart contracts. Public blockchains can serve as official records, but wallet addresses cannot replace regulated transfer agents.

Against the backdrop of growing calls for regulation of prediction markets, Polymarket has rolled out a series of user protection and anti-addiction measures. Users can now set non-immediately-revocable deposit limits to control spending and potential losses, and also add themselves to temporary or permanent "self-exclusion lists" to suspend platform use. Polymarket has also partnered with online gambling addiction treatment provider Birches Health to offer mental health resources to users exhibiting "compulsive financial trading behaviors". Malea Otranto, Polymarket’s global head of security, said the company will track usage of these tools and may adjust them based on their actual effectiveness. Prediction markets are classified as financial markets regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so they are not required to follow consumer protection rules set by individual U.S. states for sports betting platforms. Data from TickerTracker shows that sports market and parlay betting transactions account for over 98% of Polymarket’s U.S. platform trading volume this month. New York State has sued Polymarket, seeking to shut down its operations; Polymarket has denied any wrongdoing and filed a counterclaim in federal court.

Former New York Governor and OKX board member Andrew Cuomo warned that if Democrats win control of Congress in the midterm elections, the crypto industry’s current regulatory progress could be overturned. He noted that interim rules drafted by regulators are far more fragile than legislation, stressing that “regulation is not legislation”. Earlier, the Senate on September 15 rejected the CLARITY Act—legislation intended to establish federal rules for the crypto market—by a vote of 49 in favor to 50 against, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed for passage. On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading. Cuomo anticipates the new Congress will conduct strict reviews of such agency rules, and expressed hope that relevant legislation could be passed by a lame-duck session or before January 1 next year.