Most crypto funds believe that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and the market bottom may form in late Q3 to early Q4.

June 15: A majority of institutional investors hold that Bitcoin still has further downside potential, with overall market sentiment remaining cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tighter liquidity, ETF outflows, and capital shifting to AI and other sectors continue to weigh on BTC’s price. David Grider, Partner at Finality Capital, noted his firm expects Bitcoin’s current market bottom could arrive in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2026, with BTC bottoming in the $45,000–$55,000 range. Even investors who believe the market is nearing a bottom don’t anticipate a strong short-term rebound. Research shows many funds are increasing cash positions, cutting directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to navigate volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds are focusing on fundamentally strong areas like DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than allocating solely to Bitcoin. Institutions generally cite high interest rates, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and capital flowing into growth sectors like AI as the main downside risks. Additionally, some funds flag Strategy’s leverage financing model and quantum computing advancements as emerging risk factors in this cycle. On the year-end trend front, surveyed funds didn’t set a BTC target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to trade between $40,000 and $80,000 this year, pointing to improved rate cut expectations, warming liquidity, and progress on the U.S. "CLARITY Act" as key catalysts for market recovery.