HODL Wave: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply at an All-Time High, Bear Market May Be Nearing Its End

June 17 — Bitcoin has rallied 6% over the past week, climbing to roughly $65,000 after notching two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines. Research and brokerage firm K33 reports that the share of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has hit an all-time high, a potential signal the bear market is nearing its end. Vetle Lunde, K33’s Head of Research, pointed out that a key feature of the 2024–2025 cycle is the reactivation and potential selling of large volumes of long-dormant Bitcoin as prices hit new highs. But since 2026, reactivations of BTC that’s been inactive for over two years have been unusually low. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC had been reactivated — in comparison, by that same date in 2024, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated. Lunde said this shows a significant weakening of on-chain selling pressure in 2026 relative to the past two years. Lunde added that the drop in old coin activity indicates long-term holders are less willing to sell, and patient investors are continuing to soak up supply — another indicator the bear market may be winding down. Right now, 79% of circulating BTC is held by long-term holders, an all-time high, reflecting ongoing accumulation and a gradual shift in the market toward a more constructive outlook. That said, not all analysts are equally optimistic. Firms including Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have recently warned that ETF inflows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand aren’t strong enough to confirm a sustained market reversal, with some even predicting Bitcoin could fall to $30,000. Lunde noted that following the SpaceX IPO and a temporary U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the market’s focus will turn to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. This is the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took over as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. Lunde added that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 is around 0.6, so any changes in Federal Reserve communication could have a major impact on BTC — which is typically particularly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts during a bear market.