$13 billion Bitcoin options set to expire, with bears in control, bulls may face continued pressure in June

On June 21, a roughly $13 billion Bitcoin options contract set to expire on June 26 is facing an open interest structure that leans heavily bearish, stoking concerns that this month’s Bitcoin decline may continue. The cryptocurrency has fallen around 14% so far in June, with most call options concentrated at $68,000 and above, setting the stage for widespread long squeezes. Options market data shows the Deribit platform holds $10.4 billion in open interest, accounting for 79% of the total market share. Of this, $6 billion is in call options, 78% of which are concentrated above $72,000. With less than a week remaining until expiry, the actual active positions are likely to shrink significantly. For the $4.5 billion in put options, only 28% are betting Bitcoin will drop below $57,000, indicating a broadly robust bearish overall structure. Based on current price trends, all four potential scenarios for the June 26 expiry will favor bears, with a net advantage ranging from $1 billion to $3.4 billion. Even if Bitcoin bounces 12% from its current level of around $63,000, it will still fail to reverse the outcome in bulls’ favor. Earlier, bullish optimism stemmed from a strategy firm’s large-scale purchase of roughly 62,841 Bitcoin in April and May, which pushed prices above $73,000. However, subsequent continuous outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and roadblocks to the digital asset tax bill have drastically shifted market sentiment. Analysts point out that while this options expiry will not dictate July’s trend, it will dampen bullish confidence.