TrendForce’s view that memory will face oversupply is refuted: Slowing average price growth is a normal signal, and the high-price market trend will continue until 2027.

FundaAI releases a memory market analysis, explicitly refuting TrendForce’s view that recent average memory price growth has flattened and the market will face oversupply in the future. FundaAI argues this is a structural normalization process driven by two major factors: First, price sensitivity in the consumer electronics segment. End devices such as smartphones have extremely limited ability to absorb further memory price hikes, while PC original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), due to their higher baseline average prices and rigid demand from education and commercial sectors, show greater tolerance for price increases. Second, the rising share of long-term supply agreements (LTAs). Cloud service providers are actively signing LTAs, with locked prices typically lower than short-term contract rates. As LTA share grows, overall average price growth naturally slows, but memory manufacturers are protected by advance payments and breach penalty clauses, leading to enhanced revenue stability. FundaAI interprets the current slowdown in average price growth as a healthy development for the memory market, not a precursor to oversupply between 2027 and 2028. It forecasts that, supported by a further rise in LTA share and a continued shift in product mix toward data centers, memory prices will remain at high levels through 2027 rather than collapsing after peaking.