Goldman Sachs: The narrative around AI capital expenditure has been overstated by the market, with its actual impact on U.S. GDP growth being very limited.
1 hours ago
Goldman Sachs believes the macro narrative surrounding AI capital expenditure (capex) is being amplified by the market. As the Q2 U.S. earnings season draws to a close, large tech firms continue to increase their AI infrastructure investment, while investors keep trading around data centers, chips, cloud services, and power demand. However, Goldman economist Jessica Rindels notes that AI capex’s direct contribution to U.S. GDP may not be as large as the market expects. The bank’s core view is that many AI devices are imported and not fully reflected in U.S. GDP statistics; meanwhile, the transmission of AI-related activities to economic data is incomplete. Goldman estimates that when factoring in AI investment’s crowding-out effect on other capital expenditures, stock market wealth effects, and rising costs such as electricity prices, AI-related factors will contribute a net impact of only around 0.1 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in 2026.
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