Traders anticipating an escalation in the conflict flipped their positions overnight: they went short on $10 million worth of crude oil, and cut their Iran-exposed holdings by 75%.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), Polymarket trader "xm39"—who had previously bet on both "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" and gone long on crude oil—began scaling back positions on both sides of the "escalating war" thesis yesterday, flipping to short crude oil this morning. Yesterday, its associated address 0x40f liquidated 175,900 WTI crude oil long positions for ~$14.253 million, incurring a $282,000 loss. About two minutes later, "xm39" sold its Polymarket war prediction positions in bulk: 1.1823 million "Yes" contracts for "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" via 50 trades. At sale, the market-implied probability of the event was ~14.1%, generating ~$166,700 in proceeds. The sale covered 75.5% of its position, leaving 383,100 contracts. As of press time, the market-implied probability of the U.S. invading Iran before 2027 has fallen further to 12.5%. The average entry probability for its remaining contracts is ~23.28%, with a current value of ~$47,900, an unrealized loss of ~$41,300, and a 46.3% loss rate. Early today, the address opened 122,500 CL (crude oil) short positions, currently holding a $10.183 million full-position short with 20x leverage, ~$30,000 in unrealized profit, a 5.9% return rate, and a $93.09 liquidation price. It set 7 stop-loss orders at $83.522–$84.001, covering ~91.3% of its current short. WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, driven by cooling U.S.-Iran talk expectations and resurgent supply risks, though prices are still down ~4.3% this week. The 0x40f short was built right after the overnight rebound. Earlier context: Trader "xm39" had predicted crude oil would keep rising, boosting his position to $48 million in on-chain perpetual contracts. Perpetual and address analysis tool TradingBeats is now live, supporting real-time Hyperliquid data viewing, address-based whale operation tracing, and in-depth analysis at a glance.