US CFTC launches 3 new insider trading investigations into Polymarket, covering topics including Biden pardons, Iran war, and Google.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has secretly approved at least three insider trading investigations into Polymarket trades, targeting contracts related to Biden pardons, the Iran war, and Google-linked events. The investigative documents were obtained by WIRED via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Among these probes, CFTC Chair Michael Selig approved the investigation into Biden pardon-related contracts in May, after a trader earned over $300,000 in profits from the relevant market. That same month, the CFTC also greenlit an investigation into Iran war contracts, following reports that a group of suspicious accounts had reaped $2.4 million in profits with a roughly 98% win rate. In July, the CFTC launched an additional probe into Google-linked Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have traded using non-public information about Google’s 2025 search rankings. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation. It remains unclear whether the aforementioned accounts are linked to individuals previously under investigation. Polymarket stated it will refer the matter to law enforcement and cooperate with the probes. As prediction markets expand rapidly, U.S. regulators are significantly stepping up scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation.