Standard Chartered: The suppression of gold by real interest rates has eased, with its average price expected to reach $4,650 in the fourth quarter.
55 minutes ago
Standard Chartered stated that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, gold did not continue to weaken, and the traditional inverse correlation between gold and real interest rates is fading. The bank forecasts that the average gold price in the fourth quarter of 2026 will reach $4,650 per ounce, higher than the current average of around $4,350 in the third quarter. Suki Cooper, head of global commodities research at Standard Chartered, noted that structural factors including de-dollarization, currency depreciation, and sustained official sector gold purchases are underpinning gold prices. Data shows that the correlation coefficients between gold and 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are currently near -20% and -10% respectively, while the inverse correlation between gold and 2-year and 5-year real yields has also weakened significantly. Meanwhile, capital inflows into gold ETFs have continued to recover, with August seeing inflows of 121 tons, the highest level since September 2025. Standard Chartered believes that speculative positions in gold are not currently overly crowded; profit-taking ahead of the September Fed meeting has partially reduced long positions, so further selling pressure after the rate hike is limited. However, Standard Chartered views the U.S. dollar as the main short-term risk facing gold. The bank’s economists forecast another Fed rate hike in December, followed by unchanged rates throughout 2027. Cooper added that the inverse correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar is currently significantly stronger than its correlation with real interest rates, and further strength in the dollar could exert short-term pressure on gold prices.
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