Citigroup: SEC's new rulemaking will be the next key watch point for the crypto market.

Citigroup said in its latest market strategy presentation that the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act to formal consideration has not halted Bitcoin’s rally. After the bill’s procedural vote stalled, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating capital has begun reducing reliance on a single legislative node and is instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue moving forward. Citigroup believes the legislative setback will limit the CFTC from gaining more comprehensive crypto market regulatory authority in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rulemakings under its existing powers. For the market, this means the crypto industry’s compliance process still has room to proceed, with the subsequent focus on the SEC’s actual implementation pace of rules for trading, tokenized assets, and market access. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin’s rally. Citigroup’s economic team’s baseline assessment is that this round of interest rate hikes is likely near a “one-and-done” scenario; however, its quantitative macro team warns that if AI investment continues to underpin growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin’s break above its medium-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite, and notes its correlation with Nasdaq performance warrants continued monitoring.