Viewpoint: Kalshi’s valuation may reach $42.1 billion, with a baseline case of $30.4 billion.

Financial investment data firm PitchBook’s latest 46-page report has valued prediction market platform Kalshi, projecting a base-case valuation of roughly $30.4 billion, a high-case valuation of up to $42.1 billion, and a bear-case valuation of $22.8 billion. Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series F funding round in May this year, with a post-money valuation of $22 billion. PitchBook forecasts Kalshi’s revenue will hit $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profit reaching $3.7 billion, adding that its partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and Susquehanna, plus market makers, will help solidify its market share. However, regulatory risks in the sports prediction market remain a key variable weighing on Kalshi’s valuation. PitchBook data shows the sports segment currently contributes around 69.9% of Kalshi’s event fee revenue; when including "exotic" products such as multi-event parlays, that share rises to 82.4%. Multiple U.S. states and Native American tribes have filed lawsuits challenging the legality of Kalshi’s sports prediction products, with related cases creating splits among federal appeals courts; the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to take up the matter next year. PitchBook notes that even if the final ruling is unfavorable to Kalshi, the firm could adjust its business model by securing state-level licenses and expanding non-sports prediction products, though a sharp decline in sports revenue would still significantly impact its growth outlook.