Amid growing calls for regulation of prediction markets, Polymarket has rolled out a series of user protection and anti-addiction measures.

US September ADP employment came in at 90,000, versus an expectation of 70,000 and a prior figure of 38,000.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, focusing on prediction market trades conducted between December 2024 and January 2025 via a Kalshi account linked to him. Kinzinger admitted he bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon and participated in another contract regarding whether President Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. Hours before Biden left office in January 2025, he pardoned Kinzinger and other members of the House Select Committee that investigated the U.S. Capitol riot. Screenshots provided by Kinzinger show he earned $823 from the relevant trades; he noted he made around 25 total trades during the period, most of which were unprofitable. Kinzinger denies any wrongdoing, stating he had been out of office for two years at the time of the trades, was neither a sitting congressman nor a candidate, had no access to material non-public information, and never discussed pardons with anyone. He added that he reviewed Kalshi’s rules before trading—Kalshi prohibits users from participating in contracts where they are a direct party, while the CFTC also bans the use of material non-public information in regulated markets. Kalshi is reviewing the trades in question, but both the platform and the CFTC declined to comment; Kinzinger said neither has contacted him regarding the investigation.

CryptoQuant’s latest data shows that the 7-day cumulative number of deposit transactions of altcoins flowing into trading platforms rose to 78,000 on September 28, up roughly 160% from around 29,800 on September 14, marking the highest level since October 2025. During the same period, the number of addresses depositing altcoins to exchanges increased from approximately 17,600 to 51,600, nearly tripling, also hitting a new high in nearly a year. CryptoQuant stated that this round of exchange inflows is widespread, and noted that holders transferring tokens to trading platforms typically signals preparation for selling, so the relevant data may indicate potential selling pressure. Meanwhile, altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance has fluctuated between 58% and 60.4% since May 27, and remains below 60% as of press time; crypto assets outside the top 10 by market cap accounted for 9% of the total market cap on September 27, the highest level since February this year.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, stated in a post that he wishes Strive and all well-managed issuers of Bitcoin-driven digital credit every success. Strategy and Strive are built on the same framework: BTC is digital capital, STRC and SATA are digital credit, and MSTR and ASST are digital equity. The two entities have independent securities structures and decision-making processes; while they will compete for individual capital allocations, they can also jointly expand long-term market opportunities. Saylor cited SIFMA data showing that as of the end of 2025, global stock market capitalization reached $157.8 trillion, and fixed-income debt balances stood at $160.7 trillion—meaning 0.1% of either market is roughly $160 billion. He outlined a three-fold amplification mechanism: Corporate financing to purchase Bitcoin, which has a limited supply, can boost demand and improve the asset coverage of related companies; more issuers launching digital credit products can build research, trading, and liquidity infrastructure, reduce the premium investors demand due to unfamiliarity, and potentially narrow credit spreads and financing costs; and more companies proving the model works across different market environments could enhance market recognition of digital equity. He also emphasized that individual Bitcoin purchases do not guarantee price increases, Bitcoin itself generates no interest, and the profit margin between long-term asset returns and financing costs must be achieved through disciplined management; more issuers do not automatically translate to higher valuations. The model depends on a robust capital structure, prudent liquidity, transparent disclosure, and useful products. Weak issuers could undermine confidence in the entire category, while more credible issuers can meet institutional diversification needs and attract funds that would otherwise not enter this space.

A stronger U.S. dollar is generally seen as a headwind for U.S. dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and debt-denomination currency; when it appreciates, repayment costs for U.S. dollar debt borrowers rise, typically leading to reduced exposure to risk assets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen roughly 2.6% since September 9, hitting a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday. Bitcoin, after approaching $87,500 on September 21, has pulled back to the $83,000–$84,000 range. A stronger dollar may cap its upside, but the impact remains relatively limited for now. TradingView data shows that over the past 90 trading days, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY is -0.41, the lowest since February 2023, indicating the two tend to move inversely. However, the corresponding coefficient of determination is only 0.17, meaning the DXY explains roughly 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return volatility. The 30-day correlation coefficient between the two is -0.45, but this result is largely skewed by two exceptional sessions on August 19 and September 3, when Bitcoin rallied over 5% while the DXY fell. Excluding those two days, the correlation drops to -0.19. Looking at a longer timeline, since January 2020, the average 90-day correlation coefficient between the two is just -0.14, and it once rose to +0.22 in November 2024. Bitcoin also shows no significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, indicating its movements are largely driven by its own factors. Technically, the DXY has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud, but has not yet broken through the 101.80 resistance level. A breakout could end the sideways consolidation that has persisted since May 2025 and trigger an accelerated rally.

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. pension funds may sell roughly $33 billion in stocks around late September, a capital flow size at the 98th percentile since 2000. Meanwhile, systematic CTA capital flows could partially offset the pension selling pressure. If the stock market remains flat, CTAs are projected to buy $11.5 billion in global stocks; if the market rises, the purchase volume could approach $30 billion. If the market declines, CTAs may instead offload an additional $15.8 billion in stocks.