Micron Earnings Preview: Expected 940% YoY EPS Growth, Poised to Outperform NVIDIA as S&P 500’s Top Profit Growth Contributor

Micron Technology is set to release its Q4 fiscal 2026 results after U.S. stock market trading closes on Wednesday. FactSet data shows analysts expect Micron’s earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter ending in August to rise roughly 940% year-over-year. If the forecast is met, Micron could for the first time in at least two and a half years surpass NVIDIA to become the largest single contributor to S&P 500 third-quarter profit growth. FactSet projects S&P 500 third-quarter profit growth of 29.1% year-over-year; excluding Micron, that figure would drop to 24%, meaning Micron’s earnings growth alone lifted the index’s overall growth rate by roughly 5 percentage points. Rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other storage products from AI servers, paired with relatively limited supply expansion, has driven improvements in memory chip prices and profitability. Micron’s ranking as a contributor to S&P 500 profit growth has climbed from ninth place in last year’s third quarter to sixth in the fourth quarter, and to third in the first half of this year. Another key focus of this earnings report is the mass production progress of HBM4. Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst at Susquehanna, forecasts that mass production and shipments of NVIDIA’s Rubin platform will likely be concentrated after April 2027, meaning HBM4’s significant revenue boost for Micron will mainly materialize in 2027. He projects HBM4’s average selling price (ASP) will be over 50% higher than the current HBM3e, and sets Micron’s fiscal 2027 EPS forecast at roughly $200, above the consensus market estimate of around $165. Micron’s stock has rallied nearly 280% so far this year, with a market capitalization of about $1.2 trillion.