Analyst: New BTC whales' realized market capitalization share has risen to one-third; holding the BTC price above the $77,000 cost level is key.
1 hours ago
Analyst MorenoDV, citing CryptoQuant data, notes that Bitcoin’s bear market has reshaped the capital structure of its largest holders. New whales now make up roughly one-third of the total realized market capitalization of all whales, positioning recent large holders as increasingly critical to Bitcoin’s recovery. As of October 15, new whales hold $78.61 billion in realized market cap, while old whales hold $159.15 billion—translating to a 33.06% share, up from around 18% at the start of 2026. This metric reflects the value of tokens at their last on-chain movement, not their share of total Bitcoin supply. The growth is not merely a shift in relative weight: since September, new whales’ realized market cap has continued to climb, while old whales’ realized cap has remained largely stable. This means recent expansion has been concentrated among the younger holder cohort. The realized price chart backs this trend: new whales’ combined cost basis fell from roughly $110,000 near the previous cycle peak to around $68,000 at the end of August, before rebounding to roughly $77,000. This aligns with positions being re-priced to lower levels during the downturn, followed by renewed participation as prices recover. Data shows whales accumulated during market weakness and extended this accumulation into the recovery phase. This mirrors counter-cyclical positioning by "strong hands", though group turnover and transfers mean the rise in realized market cap does not equal an equivalent influx of new cash.
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