Goldman Sachs warns: Hedge funds' short bets are approaching a five-year extreme, and could easily trigger a sharp short squeeze.
1 hours ago
Since October, global hedge funds have accelerated building short positions. Data from Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage division shows the ratio of short trades to long buys has reached around 5:1, global stock shorting leverage has risen to the 99th percentile of the past five years, while net leverage of fundamental long-short funds has fallen to a near three-year low. Goldman Sachs’ trading team has thus issued a “short squeeze risk alert”, noting that the extremely crowded short positions now have the technical conditions to trigger a sharp short squeeze. This extreme positioning has already cost hedge funds: global fundamental long-short funds fell 2.5% in October, while TMT funds focused on the tech sector plunged 7.4%. The round of short selling stems from U.S. inflation exceeding expectations and market concerns over the AI computing power return cycle, leading to the most severe net sell-off of global information technology stocks in over a decade, with the Nasdaq Composite plunging 5.5% last week. However, amid the indiscriminate sell-off in the tech sector, the market structure has shown extreme divergence: hedge funds’ net exposure to the U.S. Magnificent Seven tech giants hit a record high against the trend, while Europe was the only region with net buying. Goldman Sachs warns that once the market sees an unexpected rebound, the overloaded short structure could quickly turn into buying fuel that amplifies gains, triggering a short squeeze storm.
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