Bernstein cuts Coinbase's price target to $250, raises earnings estimates for Robinhood and Circle.
1 hours ago
In its latest research note, Bernstein maintained its "Outperform" ratings for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, while revising the three firms’ earnings forecasts and price targets. As crypto spot trading growth slows, prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenization businesses are emerging as new growth engines for these players. For Coinbase, Bernstein cut its price target from $330 to $250, lowered its 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion, and projects an annual net loss of $2.60 per share, down from its prior forecast of $5.97 in earnings per share (EPS). The firm expects Coinbase’s prediction market and derivatives businesses to generate around $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from its earlier estimate of roughly $600 million. For Robinhood, Bernstein kept its $160 price target unchanged, forecasting its prediction market business will hit $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, slightly outpacing the $1.6 billion projected for its crypto business in the same period. The firm projects Robinhood’s third-quarter event contract volume will rise 21% quarter-over-quarter to around 16.4 billion contracts; its in-house blockchain, launched in July, generated roughly $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees in Q3. For Circle, Bernstein raised its price target from $140 to $145, and forecasts its third-quarter revenue will edge up to $770 million. While USDC’s circulation fell from roughly $77 billion in Q2 to around $73 billion, weighing on reserve-related revenue, Arc’s token presales, future transaction fees, and validator staking income are poised to provide new growth sources.
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