Analysis: Bitcoin cycle indicators suggest the correction may not be over yet, and the rebound does not mean selling pressure has been exhausted.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $74.6 million yesterday. Breakdown: FBTC saw a net inflow of $236.7 million, IBIT posted a net outflow of $201.2 million, ARKB a net inflow of $19.9 million, BITB a net inflow of $15.2 million, and BTCO a net inflow of $4 million; EZBC, BRRR, HODL, BTCW, MSBT, GBTC, and BTC had no capital inflows or outflows. Separately, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a total net inflow of $53 million yesterday. Breakdown: ETHA saw a net inflow of $32.8 million, FETH a net inflow of $19.2 million, ETH a net inflow of $13.6 million, ETHE a net inflow of $9.7 million; ETHB recorded a net outflow of $22.4 million, TETH a net inflow of $0.1 million; ETHW, ETHV, QETH, EZET, and MSSE had no capital inflows or outflows.

In his latest article titled "D is for Dilution", Arthur Hayes notes that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, insiders and early investors may unlock and sell large blocks of shares, creating sustained equity dilution pressure that pushes down stock prices and erodes market confidence in the AI sector’s profit outlook. According to his estimates, SpaceX will have roughly 860 million shares set to unlock by the end of June 2027, equivalent to an additional ~50% of its outstanding shares; Anthropic’s early IPO investors could face around 83% dilution. For OpenAI, Hayes predicts its IPO will likely follow a similar structure, gradually releasing holdings from employees and early investors post-listing. Persistent stock price pressure will impact these firms’ financing capabilities: investors may demand higher bond yields or even refuse to provide capital, driving up financing costs for the AI industry and spilling over to upstream data center, chip, and related businesses. If AI-related credit markets cool or freeze, the expansion of the U.S. banking system’s balance sheets may slow, leading to a contraction in dollar liquidity that weighs on the crypto market. Eventually, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks may inject liquidity to address the crisis, a move that would benefit Bitcoin and crypto assets. Prior to that, Hayes said Maelstrom will remain on the sidelines for now, adding that as data centers come online, increased computing power supply could drive down computing costs, with AI projects like FLOP Network and Genlayer poised to benefit.

Binance founder CZ has retweeted a warning from security researcher Anurag, alerting that fake Trust Wallet websites have recently emerged, tricking users into connecting their crypto wallets under the pretense of "censoring transfers". The malicious JavaScript script supports Trust Wallet, Phantom, and OKX wallets; it can scan wallet balances via a backend API and is preloaded with a fixed receiving address to induce users into transferring assets. The related transaction signing function has been disabled. The identified phishing domain is trastwallet.cam. CZ specifically reminded users to watch for domain discrepancies: .cam is not .com, urging them to avoid accessing fake websites.

Goldman Sachs has described the U.S. midterm election results as a "Blue Wave", which could have a significant impact on artificial intelligence and data center regulation. In its report, the firm stated: "Given that the Democrats won far more seats in the House of Representatives and Senate than expected, we anticipate the Democratic Party will leverage the upcoming fiscal deadline to seek policy concessions, particularly regarding curbs on the Iran war, the repeal of certain tariffs, and the reversal of recently implemented spending-cut measures."

According to TradingBeats monitoring, cross-market trader frenchlaundry has cashed out six major winning predictions, generating approximately $97,200 in profit; all of his short positions on Tesla have also been closed, yielding around $36,900 in profit. On Polymarket, these six positions centered on election results including Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress and multiple states, with a total cost of about $382,200 and a return of roughly 25.4%. Among them, around 100,000 "Democrats control both the Senate and House of Representatives" Yes positions earned ~$31,000 in profit; approximately 306,400 "Democrats win Texas Senate seat" Yes positions yielded ~$50,200. On Hyperliquid, frenchlaundry opened a new Tesla short position yesterday, with a total notional position of around $1,832,900 at an average price of ~$394.32, and closed all positions in the early hours of today. Both legs of this pair trade—betting on Democratic election wins and shorting Tesla—have now been exited.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, on the early morning of November 5, a crypto whale entered the market ahead of Arm's earnings report. Starting at 04:36 Beijing time, it built a short position; by the close of the US stock market at 5:00, it had shorted approximately $1.8368 million, with an average entry price of $190.82. At 05:03, the entire short position was forcibly liquidated at an average price of around $202.12, resulting in a loss of roughly $108,800. Only about 27 minutes passed between the whale's first entry and full liquidation. Notably, Arm's stock subsequently pulled back. As of press time, Arm's contract on Hyperliquid trades at $188.17, which is below the whale's original average entry price of $190.82. Arm's latest earnings report shows its quarterly revenue reached $1.443 billion, up 27% year-on-year, with data center royalty revenue doubling annually.