Analysis: Bitcoin’s bear market cycle has run for 396 days, and it may now be in its final stages.
41 minutes ago
CryptoBoost founder stated in a post that the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market began on October 6, 2025, from its all-time high. As of publication, the bear market has lasted 396 days, slightly longer than the average 391 days it takes for a bear market to bottom out since 2014. Historically, BTC’s bear market drawdowns have been steeper: the 2014 bear saw a maximum drop of around 86%, 2018 around 84%, 2022 around 77%, while the current pullback is approximately 53% — relatively mild. The growing participation of institutional players including spot ETFs, corporations, and funds may strengthen the market’s holding structure, thus mitigating downside risk. BTC whales have been steadily accumulating since July. That said, a cycle hitting the historical average length does not signal the bear market is over; BTC must reclaim and hold above the $80,000–$82,000 range to further confirm a market trend shift. Against a backdrop of recent market moves — declines in U.S. tech and semiconductor sectors, capital rotating into bank stocks, the Dow Jones rising after the U.S. midterm elections, and falling oil prices — he noted Wall Street’s capital flows remain unclear, suggesting BTC may be nearing the tail end of its bear market cycle.
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