Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Analysis: Bitcoin’s rally lacks trading volume and new capital support, with short-term investors opting to take profits during the upswing.

Glassnode’s report notes that Bitcoin’s breakout above the $85,000 sell wall occurred with low trading volume and limited new capital inflow, followed by a subsequent pullback. The 7-day average of combined daily trading volume on spot exchanges and U.S. spot ETFs stands at roughly $6.8 billion, lower than about 90% of trading days since January 2024. In the 30 days ending October 5, new capital from ETFs, stablecoin growth, and corporate treasury purchases totaled around $4.9 billion, less than 40% of the $12.8 billion realized market cap increase over the same period. On October 4, profitable short-term holders contributed approximately 86% of total inflows to trading platforms that day — a 1-year high — indicating recent buyers are taking profits. The options market has shifted back to a bullish bias, with the put-to-call open interest ratio at around 0.56. Recent liquidation levels are primarily concentrated below the current price; the nearest large liquidation cluster is at $81,700 to $83,300, while Binance’s largest buy order range sits at $81,000 to $81,250. If spot trading volume and ETF buying demand rebound, and Bitcoin firmly closes above $85,500, it will confirm the breakout has gained tangible support, potentially bringing the short liquidation cluster near $92,000 within reach. If the $81,000 buy level is broken, the underlying liquidation cluster could be triggered; altcoin leverage remains elevated, and a continued downturn may spark forced liquidations.

Genius Group restarts Bitcoin treasury purchases, buying 10 BTC at an average price of $85,364.

US public company Genius Group (GNS) has announced it is resuming Bitcoin treasury purchases. Between October 2 and 5, the firm acquired 10 BTC for approximately $854,000, at an average price of $85,364 per Bitcoin. The move follows the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals’ August 31 ruling to vacate a preliminary injunction that had blocked Genius Group from issuing stock, raising capital, and purchasing Bitcoin. This latest buy marks the next step in the company’s $1.2 billion dual treasury capital plan, unveiled on August 27, which targets allocating $827 million in Bitcoin and $800 million in AI assets by fiscal year 2031, pushing total assets to $2 billion. Genius Group plans to continue accumulating Bitcoin while increasing its AI stock holdings. The company will fund its dual treasury purchases via operating cash flow, its previously announced perpetual preferred securities issuance program, and an at-the-market (ATM) stock offering mechanism, with the goal of boosting net asset value per share. Currently, the firm has no plans to acquire assets through debt financing or to pledge its held Bitcoin and AI stocks. CEO Roger James Hamilton noted that while this purchase is modest in scale, it signals the company’s restart of its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Analysis: Overall Bitcoin buyers are still sitting on unrealized losses in 2025, with $88,000 emerging as a key resistance level.

Investors who bought Bitcoin in 2025 are the only annual buying cohort still holding an overall unrealized loss, with an average cost of roughly $88,000. Bitcoin hit $87,500 in September, then consolidated before falling back below $84,000 on Wednesday. As some more recent buyers may choose to sell once they break even, $88,000 could act as a key resistance level. Annual volume-weighted average cost (VWAP) has repeatedly functioned as either support or resistance in this cycle. Bitcoin rose to around $82,100 in May, hitting the average cost of the 2024 buying cohort and stalling, before dropping to $60,000 and only breaking that level in August. The 2023 buying cohort currently has an average cost of roughly $65,000, which largely acted as support during the 2026 bear market, though prices briefly dipped below it. The 2026 buying cohort’s average cost is around $73,500; since Bitcoin broke above that level in late August, most investors in this group have been in profit. The average cost of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings is roughly $82,300, with investors in these products only recently returning to overall profitability for the first time this year, and this level could serve as support during any further price pullbacks.

Ledger launches Bitcoin-collateralized lending, enabling users to borrow stablecoins without selling their BTC.

Ledger announced at Singapore’s TOKEN2049 conference the launch of its Crypto Loan feature, which allows eligible users to borrow USDC or USDT using cbBTC or WBTC as collateral, enabling them to access liquidity without selling their Bitcoin. The feature is powered by decentralized lending protocol Morpho via technical service provider Yield.xyz. Users can directly create and manage loans, monitor loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, add collateral, repay loans, or increase borrowing limits within the Ledger Wallet. Key operations still require physical confirmation via Ledger’s hardware devices, with private keys and final transaction authorization remaining fully under users’ control. Ledger also announced that its hardware devices will support direct connection to Morpho, eliminating the need for browser extensions or software wallets. The company noted that the Crypto Loan feature will be rolled out gradually to eligible users. This move further advances Ledger’s expansion from a hardware wallet provider into the financial services sector. Previously, Coinbase launched a Bitcoin-backed fixed-rate loan built on Morpho, while JPMorgan is also exploring using Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral.

Bitcoin fell to around $84,200, with its step-like uptrend structure remaining intact.

Bitcoin fell to around $83,500 at one point on Wednesday, and is now trading around $84,200 amid volatility. It has dropped more than 2% from Tuesday’s high of roughly $86,500, but remains within the $83,000–$87,000 range it has formed over the past two weeks, and its months-long "stepped" uptrend structure has not yet been broken. Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj noted that since July, BTC has formed a stepped trend via a series of sequentially rising sideways ranges: from mid-July to August 18, it fluctuated mainly between $62,000 and $67,000, then rallied 21% over three days; from late August to mid-September, it traded in the $76,000–$81,500 range, before climbing 6.6% between September 19 and 21, after which it has held in the $83,000–$87,000 range. Subburaj pointed out that $83,000 is the current key support level. A decisive break below this could signal a failed September breakout and a retest of the $80,000–$81,500 zone. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, takes a different stance, identifying the area around $84,000 as a more critical support level. A breach of this level could push BTC further down to $80,000.

Analysis: Excluding Bitcoin (BTC) that has been dormant for over 10 years, the market's profit supply ratio has remained at approximately 60% for several consecutive months.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since August, after excluding Bitcoin (BTC) that has not moved in over 10 years, the proportion of BTC supply in a profitable state has remained around 60%. These long-idle BTC are currently in deep profit and have low liquidity; a significant portion may have been lost, so excluding them provides a more accurate reflection of the current market. Most BTC have now returned to profitable territory, but in the medium to long term, the market is still far from overheating. Investors are currently facing choices: hold positions, take profits, or exit with limited losses, especially for some positions that have been held for nearly a year. Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that BTC continues to fluctuate around current levels, and its subsequent trend will still depend on supply-demand dynamics.

Santiment: Bitcoin's net outflow from centralized exchanges (CEXs) hit the highest level in nearly seven months this Monday.

Santiment released data this morning showing that on Monday, Bitcoin’s net outflow from centralized exchanges (CEXs) reached 24,073 BTC, marking the largest single-day outflow since March 1. CEX Bitcoin supply has fallen to approximately 6.50% of the total BTC supply. Santiment notes that large-scale outflows are typically a bullish signal, as assets leaving CEXs become less readily available for immediate selling. If demand remains strong while circulating supply shrinks, buyers will have fewer coins to absorb, which will push prices higher.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $118.8 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $118.8 million yesterday, with IBIT alone posting a net inflow of $122 million. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million, marking their sixth consecutive daily net outflow, and all of the outflows were attributed to BlackRock’s ETHA.

Robinhood adds $25 million worth of Bitcoin to its balance sheet.

Johann Kerbrat, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Robinhood’s International and Crypto Business, stated that Robinhood has added Bitcoin worth $25 million to its balance sheet.

Four newly created addresses opened a 40x leveraged short position on Bitcoin shortly before this morning’s market plunge.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, prior to this morning's market plunge, four newly created addresses deposited 1 million USDC into Hyperliquid, opening a 40x short position on Bitcoin, with the position valued at $12.5 million.

Bitcoin leads the market lower as celebrity trader Frank panic-sold over $1 million worth of altcoins.

As Bitcoin experiences a sharp pullback, the crypto market appears to be gripped by panic once more. Over the past half hour, prominent trader and DeGods founder @frankdegods has rapidly offloaded altcoins worth roughly $1 million on-chain, including $1 million worth of BP, $250,000 worth of EDEL, $70,000 worth of GP, and other tokens.

Bitcoin breaks below the $84,000 level

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin dropped below $84,000, with a 2.00% decline over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $85,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $85,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.93%.

Bitcoin ETFs see $91.72M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $215.37M over 7 days

Oct 6 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,059 $BTC(-$91.72M)?? 7D NetFlow: +1,074 $BTC(+$93M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -21,432 $ETH(-$58.29M)?? 7D NetFlow: -79,193 $ETH(-$215.37M)??

Analysis: S&P 500 and Bitcoin have a 100% probability of rising within 12 months after the U.S. midterm elections.

According to statistics from XWIN Japan, in the 12 months following all 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen, with an average gain of 15.4%. The third year of a U.S. president’s term has historically been its strongest performing period. In the crypto market, Bitcoin has posted gains of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections respectively. However, Bitcoin dropped 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. It should be noted that there are only three observed data points for the crypto market, which is insufficient to form a reliable pattern. Analysts suggest that after midterm elections are finalized, attention should be paid to whether yields stabilize, institutional buying persists, and regulatory progress is made. Political tailwinds may benefit Bitcoin, but sustained growth still requires favorable market conditions to align.

Binance Research: Bitcoin has confirmed a "golden cross", which may signal a strong market recovery.

Binance Research released its October market report, noting that despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2023 and the failure of the CLARITY Act, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose 11% in September to $2.99 trillion. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.49 billion that month, pushing their net flow in 2026 to positive territory for the first time on September 23. BTC confirmed a "golden cross" – where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average – on September 8, with the gap between the two indicators widening to around $7,500. Historically, such deep resets are often followed by strong recoveries.

Analysis: Bitcoin has logged sufficient turnover above $83,000, and may be gearing up to challenge $100,000.

According to analyst alicharts, Bitcoin has established a major support zone between $83,300 and $84,600. URPD data shows that 1.59 million BTC have been traded within this range, providing a defendable level for buyers. On the other hand, Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings by 14,335 BTC since October 1, worth approximately $1.22 billion. alicharts believes that if Bitcoin can hold the support level and break above $86,700, there will be no major selling pressure until around $105,000.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have cut their positions for seven straight weeks, but this has not halted the cryptocurrency’s price rally.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their positions for seven consecutive weeks, yet Bitcoin’s price has continued to rise, indicating current market demand is still able to absorb this new supply. Data shows the LTH position change indicator turned negative on August 17 and has remained so since. On September 28, the metric fell to -73,400 BTC, compared to just -1,100 BTC one week prior. However, the current scale of sell-offs remains significantly smaller than the peak of -1.07 million BTC recorded in November 2025. Meanwhile, the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been above 1 for two consecutive weeks, hitting 1.18 on September 28, meaning recently transferred Bitcoin held by long-term holders has generated an average profit of around 18% relative to their cost basis. Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders are currently primarily taking profits amid the price rally, and the real cause for concern is a further expansion of sell-offs paired with Bitcoin’s price halting its rise or even turning downward.

Analysis: If Bitcoin holds steady above $87,000, it could pave the way for the cryptocurrency to challenge record highs.

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $87,000 for the third time since September 23. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a trend of "rising local lows" since the start of last week, yet bulls have failed to build sufficient upward momentum. The cryptocurrency is now approaching the apex of a triangle pattern formed by a horizontal resistance line and an ascending support line; a breakout from this pattern could trigger higher market volatility. If bulls can absorb selling pressure at this level and push Bitcoin to hold above $87,000, it would signal easing selling pressure at the position, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to challenge its nearly 8-month high.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $89.8 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $18.9 million.

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $89.8 million yesterday. Among them, IBIT posted a net inflow of $6.99 million, while FBTC saw a net outflow of $74.5 million and ARKB a net outflow of $85.2 million; the remaining ETFs had zero capital flows. For spot Ethereum ETFs, total net outflows reached $18.9 million, with only FETH logging a net outflow of $18.9 million, and the rest of the ETFs showing no capital movement.

Analysis: Bitcoin bull market indicators remain in bullish territory, with a current lack of spot demand to drive gains.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index remains firmly in bullish territory, currently standing at 80/100, with multiple metrics continuing to support BTC’s upward momentum. Darkfost pointed out that the only relatively lagging factor at present is spot demand. As observed earlier, the market’s spot trading volume remains low, so there is no obvious spot buying demand at this stage. He believes spot demand is the missing key factor in the current BTC market trend, and this part is often the last to materialize.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 and is currently trading at $85,126.

Bitcoin ETFs see $164.22M inflow while Ethereum ETFs suffer $63.56M outflow

Oct 5 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +1,918 $BTC(+$164.22M)?? 7D NetFlow: +2,645 $BTC(+$226.41M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -23,533 $ETH(-$63.56M)?? 7D NetFlow: -52,114 $ETH(-$140.75M)??

Last week, Strategy added 334 Bitcoin to its holdings at an average price of $85,839, and repurchased $176 million worth of STRC.

According to official sources, Strategy last week purchased 334 BTC at an average price of $85,839 for a total of $28.7 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 848,000 coins, valued at $63.97 billion on a cost basis. The company repurchased $176 million worth of STRC, sold 92,894 shares of MSTR stock, and raised $15.7 million to finance the Bitcoin acquisition. Strategy projects its third-quarter digital asset revenue will reach $20.91 billion. As of September 30, the book value of its Bitcoin holdings stood at $70.82 billion.

Strive spent an additional $169 million to acquire 2,000 Bitcoin last week, bringing its total Bitcoin position to 29,462.

Strive CEO Matt Cole disclosed that the company purchased 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average price of $84,422 per token, with total spending of roughly $169 million, bringing its total BTC holdings to 29,462 coins. Sixty-one point five percent of the funds raised in this round originated from SATA, and the warrants generated an additional $56.7 million in proceeds.

Remixpoint increases its Bitcoin holdings by 7.45 BTC, bringing its total BTC position to 1,508.72.

Japanese listed company Remixpoint has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7.45 BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to 1,508.72.

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders continue to add to their positions, with their average cost rising to $74,100.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that as of October 4, Bitcoin holdings of short-term holders increased by 87,000 coins over the past 30 days to 3.94 million, marking the seventh consecutive week this metric has outpaced the prior month’s level. The indicator has remained positive since August 18, signaling a rise in Bitcoin supply that has changed hands over the past six months. Currently, short-term Bitcoin holders have an average cost basis of roughly $74,100, with an overall unrealized profit of around 15%—nearly unchanged from a week ago, but below the September 22 phase high of 19%. Meanwhile, their average cost has climbed by approximately $1,000 week-over-week, indicating that as Bitcoin’s price rises, the entry cost for short-term holders is also increasing. The $74,100 level is a key threshold to monitor now. If Bitcoin drops below this level, short-term holders as a whole will flip into unrealized losses; if the 30-day holding change also turns negative, it means this group’s position size is starting to shrink, which could further erode market structure.

Ansem is strongly bullish on the market outlook, predicting that major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin will reach new highs before Christmas.

Crypto KOL Ansem issued a prediction this morning that major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, ZEC, and HYPE will hit new highs before Christmas.

A prominent trader predicts Bitcoin will break through its previous high between April 26 and August 2 next year.

Well-known crypto trader Killa has published a prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will break its all-time high between April 26 and August 2, 2027. In an accompanying chart comparing historical market cycles, he pointed out that the bottom phases in 2022 and 2026 have shortened, implying the cycle rhythm has accelerated due to an earlier bottoming out, leading him to estimate BTC could hit a new all-time high as early as May to July 2027. Killa, a quantitative trader specializing in BTC, previously called the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then switched to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Glassnode: Bitcoin’s largest liquidation cluster above current levels is in the $90,000 range.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s largest liquidation cluster sits around $90,000. A price hit to this level would force leveraged short positions to liquidate. Looking back over the past two months, Glassnode notes smaller liquidation clusters are visible around $83,000 and $75,000. Whichever level the price reaches, it could accelerate the next round of market volatility.

Middle East conflict fears escalate, U.S. stock futures edge higher, Bitcoin once again tests the $87,000 mark.

This weekend, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi militants have escalated, while Trump has repeatedly hinted at further actions against Iran, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. However, early Monday, boosted by cooling expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, U.S. stock index futures edged higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.3%. Bitcoin also accelerated its rebound after U.S. futures opened, potentially retesting the $87,000 level. As of press time, per HTX market data, Bitcoin is trading at $86,371, with a 24-hour gain of 1.35%.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the company’s Bitcoin tracker, noting, “More orange than ever.” Following past patterns, the orange dots represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, and this move likely signals the firm will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements.

Bitcoin OGs Move First Funds in 13 Years: 1,346 $BTC ($115M) Now Worth 479x Initial Investment

Two Bitcoin OGs who bought 1,346 $BTC($115M now) 13 years ago have moved 0.0005 $BTC ($43) after years of dormancy as a test transaction. They bought 1,346 $BTC ($240K at the time) 13 years ago at an average price of $178, and are now sitting on a 479x return.

A dormant Bitcoin address inactive for over 13 years has reactivated, holding 801 BTC with an unrealized profit of more than $67 million.

According to on-chain data, a Bitcoin whale dormant for over 13 years has reactivated. When Bitcoin traded between $124.86 and $411.75, the whale accumulated 801 BTC. At 17:43:54 Beijing time today, it transferred BTC worth $43, likely a test transaction, and the unrealized profit of its holdings stands at $67.82 million.

Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders have remained profitable throughout this cycle, marking the first time since 2015.

Glassnode’s report indicates that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have remained profitable throughout this cycle. Since 2015, no previous bear market has seen this dynamic. In every prior bear cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio fell below 1 at the cycle’s low point, signaling the group as a whole was in unrealized losses. However, for this cycle, the LTH-MVRV ratio stayed above 1 even at its lowest level and has now started rising again.

Benson Sun: Bitcoin is seeing active capital support in the $83,000 to $84,000 range, with obvious buying response.

Coinkarma founder Benson Sun posted that around 11 PM on October 1, U.S. stocks and gold weakened simultaneously, but the Binance BTC/USDT spot market saw consecutive market buy orders of roughly 400 BTC, supporting the price above $84,000, with the final candlestick closing as a doji. Around 1:30 AM on October 3, within the same price range, the market briefly had market sell orders of around 1,400 BTC, which pushed the price down sharply to form a long lower wick before the level held. Candlestick data shows sell orders of roughly 100 BTC appeared every few seconds at the time, but every price dip was quickly reversed by buy orders. Benson Sun pointed out that this range highly overlaps with the $83,000-$84,000 zone where on-chain holdings have accumulated rapidly recently. Based on spot order flow and on-chain data, there is active capital support in this price range, and buy orders have responded noticeably once BTC enters this zone.

A Bitcoin whale has placed a $10.27 million long bet on Bitcoin, targeting a rebound, at an average entry price of $84,918.9.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (handle @ai_9684xtpa), address 0x799…15f4c opened its first position on Hyperliquid, betting on Bitcoin (BTC)’s rebound with 7x leverage. The address initiated a long position of 121.23 BTC in the early hours of today, with the position valued at approximately $10.27 million, an average entry price of $84,918.9, and is currently facing an unrealized loss of around $20,000.

Prominent Trader: Bitcoin short target remains at $79,000, deepest correction expected between $69,000 and $71,000

Renowned trader Doctor Profit posted that he has shorted Bitcoin at $86,200 and is adding short positions in the $86,500–$89,500 range to build a swing short position. His current target remains $79,000; once that level is hit, he will decide to either take profits or hold the short based on Bitcoin’s price reaction. He noted the deepest correction range he is considering is $69,000–$71,000, and does not expect prices to drop lower. While the short entered at $86,200 is working so far, he will assess the market at each price level rather than betting on a deep correction outright. His next step is to first monitor support performance near $79,000 to determine whether Bitcoin will continue falling, reverse to extend the bull market, or hit a new local high.

EntropyLab launches an offline Bitcoin wallet tool supporting completely offline key generation.

Bitcoin offline key tool EntropyLab has released its self-contained Bitcoin key and wallet calculation tool v1.0.0rc1, the project’s first release candidate. The tool runs entirely from a single HTML file, requires no internet connectivity, and does not generate random entropy on its own—users must supply their own entropy values to compute Bitcoin keys and wallets in a fully offline environment. It supports features including multi-signature, PSBT, BIP-85, Silent Payments, vanity addresses, read-only wallet exports, and nonce analysis. EntropyLab states that this release is reproducible and verifiable via signatures from four independent signers. The team advises users to verify the downloaded file before transferring it to an air-gapped computer for use. The official v1.0.0 version has not yet been released, as the project is currently testing this release candidate.

Analysis: 30-year US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, Bitcoin faces dual signals

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation. U.S. CPI has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1980s. Wealth concentration in the U.S. remains extreme: the net worth of the top 1% of U.S. households totals roughly $60.3 trillion, 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 23% since 2020. The 24-year high in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield puts direct pressure on Bitcoin, as higher discount rates tend to compress valuations of non-yield-bearing assets. On the flip side, persistent inflation and the dollar’s declining purchasing power could reinforce Bitcoin’s narrative as a hard asset and inflation hedge. The market is currently grappling with two conflicting signals; in the short term, the key question is whether support for BTC from inflation and a weaker dollar, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, will prevail.

Forbes: The narrative of Bitcoin as a "depreciation hedge" is heating up, Trump says a moderate level of inflation can quickly reduce $40 trillion in debt.

According to Forbes, U.S. President Donald Trump told Time magazine in an interview that "a certain level of inflation will also pay off debt very quickly," sparking market debate over whether the U.S. can reduce its real debt burden through nominal economic growth and inflation. The outlet notes that U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, more than doubling over the past decade, while interest payments have climbed steadily after Federal Reserve rate hikes. Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Elon Musk have all previously cited technology-driven economic growth as a critical solution to debt pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has rallied roughly 300% from its 2023 low, but remains about 30% below its 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Markets have recently refocused on the "debasement trade"—a strategy where investors hedge against fiat currency purchasing power erosion by allocating to assets like gold and Bitcoin. Forbes cited Bitfire Research’s analysis, which argues that Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against fiat depreciation remains valid, though short-term prices may still be swayed by interest rate policies and U.S. dollar liquidity. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, shows U.S. prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets assign a roughly 70% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its late-October policy meeting.

Glassnode: Bitcoin investors who bought at high levels are selling, with daily sell volumes from those who entered during the 2025 rally at their highest.

According to Glassnode’s monitoring, investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) at high levels are now selling. Two groups of investors are in unrealized losses: those who purchased BTC 1–2 years ago hold an average cost basis of around $97,000, while those who bought 6–12 months ago have an average cost of roughly $89,000. Glassnode states that investors who acquired BTC during the 2025 bull run have recorded the highest daily average sell volume this year, whereas investors who bought during market pullbacks have not exhibited similar selling behavior.

VanEck: Bitcoin may still continue to expand its market share going forward, and quantum computing is currently not a sufficient reason to sell.

VanEck Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel stated in an interview that with the rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the power resources and long-term power contracts held by Bitcoin miners are gaining new value. Sigel pointed out that in the past, miners’ core assets were primarily viewed as computing power and BTC production capacity, but AI data centers’ demand for large volumes of stable power is reshaping the market’s valuation of miners’ power contracts. He added that some miners have signed 10-to-20-year long-term power lease agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and these contracts are granting miners "optionality"—a value distinct from pure BTC exposure. The AI sector’s growth is making power an increasingly scarce resource, so miners with low-cost, long-term locked power supplies may unlock new business opportunities, including transitions to AI infrastructure. On the Bitcoin market front, current signs of seller fatigue suggest investors should focus on opportunities following pullbacks. Additionally, Sigel compared the roles of gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios, arguing Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share going forward. He also discussed the potential impact of quantum computing on the Bitcoin network, noting that quantum computing is a long-term risk to monitor but not yet a reason for investors to sell BTC. VanEck remains bullish on Bitcoin adoption trends, and views Bitcoin reaching a certain percentage of the gold market capitalization as one key future valuation reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin Pullback Eyes $82,500 Support; Rebound Opportunity May Emerge If Whales Resume Buying the Dip

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that BTC’s recent rally to near $87,000 has been capped, due to factors including whales taking continuous profits during the rise, and the $87,000 level being at the top of a channel that has been consistently suppressing BTC recently. Ali Charts said that during the overall sideways consolidation of the market over the past week, Bitcoin whale holdings decreased by about 30,000 BTC, worth around $2.52 billion, indicating that some large investors are reducing their risk exposure. Currently, Ali Charts is focusing on the support area near the lower edge of BTC’s channel, around $82,500. He noted that if BTC pulls back to this level and whales are seen resuming accumulation, this could signal a potential dip buy opportunity, with expectations of a subsequent rebound to test the resistance near $87,000.

Bitdeer sold 292.3 BTC this week, maintaining a zero Bitcoin position.

Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer stated in a post on X that during the week ending October 2, it mined 292.3 BTC, sold an equal amount of BTC in the same period, resulting in zero net new BTC, and currently maintains a zero Bitcoin position.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has made net purchases of Bitcoin worth $1.57 billion over the past month.

According to Arkham's monitoring, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has net purchased Bitcoin worth $1.57 billion over the past month. As of press time, IBIT holds more than 800,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $67.87 billion.

A well-known trader: Bitcoin’s annual high stands at $97,000; if it fails to hold the $80,000 level in the short term, it could bottom out at $74,000.

Prominent trader Killa posted that he expects Bitcoin to reach a yearly high of $97,000, with the majority of the year likely seeing the cryptocurrency trade sideways below that level. Killa noted Bitcoin’s short-term key level is $80,000–$83,000, a threshold more significant than many realize: if it breaks, the next likely zone would be $74,000–$77,000, which could mark the final capitulation bottom before Bitcoin’s push toward $97,000. However, if bullish momentum persists, pullbacks could be far shallower, potentially only dipping to the $80,000 low before the next upward rally. As a BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa correctly predicted the peak of the current bull run in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then shifted to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

US SEC approves 3x Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas ETPs

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a post that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 3x bull ETPs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas under the Securities Act of 1933.

Cooling jobs data dampens rate hike expectations, Nvidia’s new high leads U.S. stocks to close higher, and Bitcoin retreats again after failing to breach $87,000.

Overnight to this morning, U.S. employment data came in far below expectations: September added just 29,000 jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while July and August figures were revised down by around 60,000 jobs. Following the data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October cooled further. Driven by the above data, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.74%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.19%. For individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, SpaceX rose 7.35%, Tesla rose 4.65%, Dell rose 3.8%, Broadcom rose 3.35%, ASML rose 3.25%, and Nvidia rose 1.34% to hit another all-time high. Accenture fell 6.27%, and SanDisk dropped 3.79%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 after the employment data release before pulling back, currently trading at $84,643.39, with a 0.7% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $86,000, with its intraday gain narrowing to 1.31%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, currently trading at $85,990.62, with its intraday gain narrowing to 1.31%.