Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Bitcoin retail investor demand is near its highest level in two years, signaling renewed downside risk.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the combined 30-day demand for Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures has hit a new high of 10,883 BTC, marking the best performance so far this year. Additionally, the 30-day change in demand from Bitcoin retail investors (with trading volumes between $0 and $10,000) is surging, approaching the highest level in the past two years. Darkfost notes that small investors lack patience and tend to react to minor price fluctuations, which may signal a local top risk for BTC.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $189.3 million, while Ethereum ETFs registered a net inflow of $71.4 million.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $189.3 million yesterday, with IBIT contributing $143.6 million of that total. This marks the second consecutive day of net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs overall. Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $71.4 million, while ETHA recorded a net inflow of $64.7 million.

Tracking the Theft of Over 1,000 Bitcoin from Coldcard: Identities of Initial Attackers May Have Been Obtained by the FBI

New developments have emerged in the Coldcard hardware wallet theft incident that took place in July 2026. An investigation by Block’s Bitkey team revealed that first-round attackers used a paid account from a leading blockchain data service provider to query affected addresses. The platform’s internal logs align closely with the attack’s request volume, timing, and execution sequence, and the attacker’s identity may now be known to law enforcement. Galaxy Research previously tracked that the first-round attack transferred 1,082.65 BTC, which remains in the attacker’s addresses. Cumulative losses from the Coldcard vulnerability incident have surpassed 1,800 BTC, affecting over 5,000 addresses. The attack stemmed from a random number generation flaw in a portion of Coldcard’s firmware, which caused insufficient entropy in private keys generated by some devices, enabling attackers to crack wallets via computation. Coldcard has since released fixes and urged affected users to migrate their funds promptly.

Bitcoin’s volatility falls to a cycle low, as traders shift to AI stocks and prediction markets.

Bitcoin’s recent volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, with its 30-day realized volatility standing at around 42%, compared to the S&P 500’s roughly 18% — marking the narrowest gap in volatility between the two assets on record. The market is stuck in a stalemate between buyers and sellers: sell-offs by corporates and mining firms cap upside gains, while deleveraging and ongoing accumulation by long-term holders limit downside declines. As Bitcoin’s volatility eases, some short-term traders have shifted their risk appetite to assets like AI stocks, tokenized equities, stock perpetuals, and prediction markets. A NYDIG study notes that short-term traders tend to chase volatility, narrative momentum, and upside potential, with “traders targeting 5x or 10x returns” now having options including Bitcoin, Nvidia, gold, stock perpetuals, 0DTE options, and sports event contracts. Data shows that monthly trading volume of traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms has surged more than fivefold from $52 billion in January to $268 billion in June. Meanwhile, South Korean retail traders have clearly shifted from cryptocurrencies to AI-related stocks, with trading volumes on major South Korean crypto exchanges falling by up to around 80% year-over-year. CoinDesk points out that the Bitcoin market is currently more like in a “dormant” state, with falling trading participation, shrinking market depth, and regulatory uncertainty combining to suppress volatility. If U.S. crypto regulation makes substantial progress, the macro environment shifts, or a new market narrative emerges, the current low-volatility regime could be broken, and thinner liquidity may further amplify price swings.

Zhibao Technology has completed a $154.7 million Bitcoin PIPE financing, adding 2,380 BTC to its holdings.

Nasdaq-listed Chinese insurance technology firm Zhibao Technology (stock code: ZBAO) has completed its previously announced Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) financing, with investors subscribing to the company’s newly issued shares and warrants using 2,380 Bitcoin. At the agreed reference price of $65,000 per BTC, the transaction is valued at approximately $154.7 million. According to a 6-K filing submitted by Zhibao to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), investors transferred all 2,380 BTC to the company’s designated wallet at closing. In exchange, the company issued 442 million PIPE units, each priced at $0.35, comprising 1 Class A ordinary share and 1 warrant. The warrant has an exercise price of $0.35 and a two-year term. Zhibao stated it will hold Bitcoin as reserve assets, using them to support daily operations, business expansion, research and development, and AI-related applications. Following the transaction, Zhibao’s Bitcoin holdings rank 33rd among global public companies.

Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating their shift toward AI, with AI/HPC contract mining firms commanding significantly higher valuations than pure-play mining companies.

As Bitcoin prices fall and mining yields remain under pressure, Bitcoin mining firms that have pivoted to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (AI/HPC) are securing higher valuations and more stable revenue outlooks. Over the past year, shares of TerraWulf (WULF), IREN, and Cipher Digital (CIFR) have all more than doubled, while MARA Holdings (MARA), which pivoted to AI later, saw its stock drop around 40% over the same period. Bitcoin’s mining hash price has now fallen from roughly $63 per PH/s in July last year to about $31.8, prompting an increasing number of mining firms to shut down equipment. The Bitcoin network’s hashrate has also declined from 1.14 ZH/s to approximately 900 EH/s, a drop of around 21%. Data from CoinShares shows that as of the first quarter of 2026, the average enterprise value multiple for mining firms with AI/HPC contracts stood at roughly 12.3x, while pure Bitcoin mining firms had a multiple of just 5.9x. Over the same period, the total value of AI/HPC contracts signed across the industry has reached about $70 billion. Recently, mining firms’ AI transitions have accelerated further. Last week, Riot Platforms signed a 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic, valued at around $9.1 billion. The market believes that the truly scarce assets of mining firms are not Bitcoin itself, but low-cost power, data center infrastructure, and large-scale computing operation capabilities—resources that can be repurposed for high-growth computing businesses like AI. However, pure Bitcoin mining still has room for recovery. CoinShares estimates that if Bitcoin prices return to their all-time high of roughly $126,000 hit last October, the hash price could rebound to around $59 per PH/s, and mining firms’ profitability is expected to improve significantly.

Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, surging over 2% in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $65,000 mark, with a 2.20% gain in the past 24 hours.

August 18 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +4,436 $BTC(+$284.05M)🟢 7D NetFlow: +13 $BTC(+$819.51K)🟢 #Ethereum ETF...

August 18 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +4,436 $BTC(+$284.05M)?? 7D NetFlow: +13 $BTC(+$819.51K)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +16,091 $ETH(+$30.46M)?? 7D NetFlow: +27,042 $ETH(+$51.19M)??

Analysis: $1.8 Trillion 'Panic' Could Trigger 30% Volatility in Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been trading sideways recently, with markets closely monitoring surging global bond yields. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, noted that Bitcoin’s recent volatility is at an all-time low, suggesting extreme price swings could emerge in the coming months. Historical data shows that in similar scenarios, Bitcoin’s median absolute price swing over the subsequent 60 days is around 30%. Global bond yields have surged sharply this week: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, the 20-year yield notched a new high since 2006, and the 10-year yield reached its highest since 2007. Markets attribute the rise in long-term yields to factors including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, rising costs for AI infrastructure, high oil prices, and monetary policy uncertainty. Yardeni Research stated that while the market is not yet in a "panic" state, it is closely monitoring whether so-called "bond vigilantes" will reassert control over the market. Bitunix analysts pointed out that market focus has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise or cut interest rates to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation risks, and global risk premiums. Additionally, Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, said it is not ruled out that Bitcoin could experience another sharp drop in the coming months, even falling to the mid-$50,000 range. If historical patterns hold, the market may need to go through a final "panic-driven liquidation" to confirm the real bottom of this cycle.

Citigroup plans to launch Bitcoin custody services within the year, enabling institutional clients to hold the cryptocurrency alongside their traditional assets.

Citigroup plans to launch Bitcoin custody services later this year, enabling institutional clients to hold BTC alongside traditional assets such as stocks and bonds via its newly unveiled Custody+ platform. The exact launch date remains unannounced. The bank stated that Custody+ is designed to boost the efficiency of services including custody, settlement, foreign exchange, and cash management, with initial support for Bitcoin. Citigroup’s custody business currently spans over 100 markets, with a proprietary custody network in 62 of those regions. Once BTC custody is rolled out, institutional clients will no longer need separate independent crypto custody providers, as they can manage both traditional assets and Bitcoin uniformly through Citigroup. The firm added that its new system has already achieved real-time processing for more than 80% of relevant custody events, cutting processing time by up to 92%, with 96% of such events completed within two hours. As the U.S. regulatory landscape improves, large financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the crypto asset custody sector. The Bank of New York Mellon launched crypto asset custody services for some U.S. clients in 2022, while firms including Fidelity Digital Assets and Coinbase have also deployed institutional-grade digital asset custody offerings.

Metaplanet to Inject 2,100 BTC Into US Bitcoin Treasury Company

Metaplanet will inject 2,100 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at approximately $132 million, into Nasdaq-listed firm Super League (SLE), plus an additional $2.5 million in cash. Super League will be renamed "Superplanet", with its stock ticker proposed to be changed to SUPA. Upon completion of the transaction, Metaplanet is expected to hold roughly 95.7% of Superplanet’s shares, establishing a U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury platform to raise capital via the U.S. capital market. Superplanet plans to expand into the growing "digital credit" market, raise funds by issuing U.S. dollar-denominated perpetual preferred shares, use the proceeds to further purchase Bitcoin, and support dividend payments through U.S. dollar reserves and operating cash flow. Metaplanet noted that this strategy aims to increase the Bitcoin per share of Superplanet, as well as boost Bitcoin holdings per share of Metaplanet stock at the group level. This structure will form two listed Bitcoin treasury platforms under the group: one in Japan and one in the U.S., both leveraging their respective local capital markets to continue accumulating Bitcoin.

US-listed Super League surges over 20% in pre-market trading, as the company secures a 2,100 Bitcoin capital injection from Metaplanet.

According to market data from BIT (Bit.com), U.S. metaverse firm Super League’s pre-market shares surged over 20%, lifting its market capitalization to $5.11 million. The development follows news that Metaplanet will inject 2,100 BTC (valued at roughly $132 million) plus an additional $2.5 million in cash into Nasdaq-listed Super League (SLE). Super League will be renamed "Superplanet", with its stock ticker set to change to SUPA. Once the transaction closes, Metaplanet is projected to hold around 95.7% of Superplanet’s shares, establishing a U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury platform to raise capital via American capital markets.

Glassnode Warns: Bitcoin Faces 'Absence of Buyers', May Drop to $52,800 if It Falls Below $58,500

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says the Bitcoin market is in a "highly contracted" state, with selling pressure from sellers easing but buyers yet to enter noticeably. BTC is currently fluctuating mainly between $63,000 and $68,700, with market trading activity dropping to its lowest level since 2019. Glassnode data shows the 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to its lowest level since 2013, though a historic market bottom signal has not yet been confirmed. If BTC breaks below $58,500, the next support level could drop to $52,800. Crypto analyst CryptoBusy notes that the current degree of seller exhaustion is approaching levels seen in previous bear market bottoms, though deeper sell-offs have occurred in historical cycles, meaning Bitcoin may still need to release more selling pressure to complete market clearing. Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Group, predicts Bitcoin could bottom around $57,000 in October, and views complete seller exhaustion as a key signal for the end of the bear market. However, there is no consensus on market bottoming among analysts. Some analysts point out that only 2 of Glassnode’s 10 capitulation indicators have been triggered so far, putting BTC’s potential bottom at between $49,000 and $53,000. Analysts also add that before ETF inflows and spot trading volumes show a clear recovery, it is not enough to confirm the market has entered a sustained accumulation phase. Glassnode further warns that leveraged traders have already bet on a market recovery, but current on-chain and market data have not sufficiently supported this expectation.

Energy markets’ crack spreads expand to a record high, Bitcoin may face new pressure.

As crude oil prices pull back, refined product prices continue to climb. The U.S. diesel-crude oil crack spread has surged to $102.20 per barrel, hitting an all-time high. Disruptions to global energy supplies from the Iran and Ukraine conflicts have tightened diesel supplies, while the ongoing agricultural harvest season has boosted demand for fuel for farm equipment like tractors, further driving up diesel prices and potentially passing those costs to inflation via food, transportation, and heating expenses. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the downtrend line formed since their April peak, signaling the end of the four-month downward trend. Should oil prices rise further, market inflation expectations could reheat. Energy prices and inflation risks, paired with government debt concerns, are pushing up yields on U.S. Treasuries and other developed-market bonds, raising the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like Bitcoin and potentially limiting BTC’s upside potential. However, a weaker U.S. dollar is still providing some support for Bitcoin. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.29 on Monday, hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and breaking below its prior uptrend line. Currently, Bitcoin is being influenced by multiple factors including oil prices, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar’s movement, with the macro environment showing clear divergence.

Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will face overall losses, and selling pressure has now reached its lowest level in the cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis showing on-chain data that Bitcoin’s long-term holder cost base stands at $49,400, with a current price multiple of 1.3x. Bitcoin has spent 78 consecutive days in the low-risk zone between the long-term holder cost base and 1.5x that level, where the 1.5x threshold corresponds to a price of roughly $74,100. Long-term holder supply currently sits at 16.35 million BTC, just 58,000 BTC below the all-time high of 16.41 million BTC recorded on July 30. Only two days of supply decline have been seen in the past 15 days, indicating the group’s selling frequency has nearly hit its lowest level. The analyst noted these two signals together point to: valuation remaining low relative to the long-term holder cost base, and long-term holders showing almost no sustained selling signs. He emphasized this combination is a “constructive supply structure” but does not alone constitute an independent signal that a new rally has begun. Current conditions show long-term holders as a whole are still in unrealized profit (price is roughly 30% above the cost base), and the market remains in the lower end of its historical valuation range. However, for a new uptrend to unfold, further confirmation from both demand and price sides is needed. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will collectively shift into unrealized loss, entering a lower-risk zone from a valuation perspective, but meaning significantly rising pressure on long-term holders from a market condition standpoint.

Analysis: Bitcoin's low volatility may signal a major market move, with a potential 30% price swing in the next 60 days.

Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has recently fallen to a historic low, which may signal an upcoming major price swing. Fundstrat’s analysis of the past 8 similar low-volatility periods found that the median absolute price movement of Bitcoin over the subsequent 60 days reached 30.2%. Of these instances, 4 saw gains and 4 saw losses, indicating this metric only predicts the magnitude of price moves, not their direction. Calculated based on Bitcoin’s current price of around $64,000, a 30% rally would push it to roughly $83,200, while a 30% correction would bring it to about $44,800. Farrell pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent gains were partly driven by short covering rather than a surge in new buying demand. Since Friday evening, Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest has dropped by around 8%, showing some traders are exiting bearish positions. Additionally, Farrell argued that rising real bond yields could be a key factor driving Bitcoin’s next major move. If real yields continue to climb, they may break Bitcoin’s current low-volatility consolidation pattern. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $64,000, down nearly 27% since the start of 2026. The market may soon make a clear directional choice, though short-term trends remain uncertain.

Riot Platforms Sold 9,665 Bitcoins in the First Half of the Year

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Riot Platforms sold a total of 9,665 Bitcoin in the first half of 2026, with an average selling price of $75,785.

The US and Iran remain in a stalemate, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, and Bitcoin posted a minor gain.

International oil prices rose roughly 3% to close on Monday amid dim prospects for U.S.-Iran peace talks. Trump stated he has no intention of extending the upcoming expiring agreement with Iran. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. The two sides still have differences on multiple issues including the Strait of Hormuz. Other officials hinted that the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the nearly six-month conflict. U.S. Energy Secretary said the U.S. is engaged in a long-term game with the Islamic Republic of Iran, while Trump senior advisor Kushner noted that Trump will remain patient in reaching an agreement. Per market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks closed on Monday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.32%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 3%, Micron Technology (MU.O) gained 4%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) jumped 8.8%, and Nike (NKE.N) fell 4%. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,288, with a 2.13% gain in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin surges past $64,000, with a 1.23% gain in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $64,000 level, with a 1.23% gain in the past 24 hours.

Analysis: Bitcoin spot liquidity weakness and ETF outflows are weighing on the market, but slowing capital outflows show initial signs of stabilization.

Glassnode’s Bitcoin Market Pulse Report notes that Bitcoin rebounded slightly after pulling back from the $65,000 level over the past week, but remains in a clear range-bound pattern overall. Spot trading volumes and on-chain transaction throughput have continued to contract, reflecting weak market liquidity and low participation. Derivatives markets are also cautious: leverage has expanded moderately, but aggressive trading in perpetual contracts has consistently leaned toward sellers, indicating more aggressive distribution activity. Positive funding rates signal bullish sentiment remains intact, while the options market continues to price downside protection, with premiums still high relative to realized volatility. Institutional demand has weakened in tandem: spot ETF volumes coincide with net outflows, aggregate holdings are near cost basis, leaving regulated investors with limited unrealized profit potential, and institutional accumulation has stalled temporarily. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of Bitcoin supply in loss, and realized losses consistently outpacing realized gains. The report also points out that the pace of broader capital outflows has begun to slow, an early sign that selling pressure may be stabilizing. The overall market structure remains caught between persistent short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, soft institutional capital flows, and elevated realized losses all point to continued consolidation, while slowing outflows suggest the market may be approaching a more balanced state ahead of its next directional move.

Strategy did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week, selling $334 million worth of stocks and lifting its U.S. dollar reserves to $4.8 billion.

Last week, Strategy sold 3.46 million shares through an At The Market (ATM) program, raising $333.7 million. The company made no Bitcoin purchases, keeping its Bitcoin holdings unchanged at 840,447 BTC, with a total cost of $63.36 billion and an average cost of approximately $75,385 per BTC. The proceeds were allocated to paying preferred stock dividends, repurchasing $132.2 million in STRC, and increasing cash reserves. Its current U.S. dollar reserves total $4.8 billion.

Strive increased its Bitcoin holdings by 79 coins last week, bringing its total holdings to 20,246 Bitcoin.

U.S.-listed bitcoin treasury firm Strive bought 79 bitcoin last week at an average price of around $63,231. As of August 14, the company holds a total of 20,246 bitcoin, plus 505,000 shares of Strategy STRC preferred stock (with a fair value of approximately $47.86 million) and roughly $154.8 million in cash.

Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin holdings last week, selling $334 million in stocks, lifting its U.S. dollar reserves to $4.8 billion.

Last week, Strategy sold 3.46 million shares via an ATM program, raising $333.7 million. The company made no Bitcoin purchases, leaving its Bitcoin holdings unchanged at 840,447 BTC, with a total cost of $63.36 billion and an average cost of roughly $75,385 per BTC. The proceeds were used to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase $132.2 million worth of STRC, and increase cash reserves. Its current U.S. dollar reserves stand at $4.8 billion.

A Bitcoin short whale holding $125 million in positions has triggered stop-loss for the fourth time, with cumulative realized losses totaling nearly $990,000.

According to monitoring by @ai_9684xtpa, a whale holding approximately $125 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) short positions stopped out 300 BTC 40 minutes ago, incurring a loss of $9,065. This marks the fourth stop-loss for the whale since it opened the position on August 5, with total realized losses reaching $988,000 so far. The whale currently still holds 1,700 BTC short positions, valued at around $108 million, with an unrealized profit of approximately $96,000 and a liquidation price of $63,710.5.

2,782 Bitcoin transferred out of Bitstamp, valued at approximately $177 million.

According to Whale Alert monitoring, 2,782 Bitcoin (valued at approximately $176 million) were withdrawn from Bitstamp and transferred to an unknown wallet.

Capital B adds 5 Bitcoins to its holdings, bringing total holdings to 3,145 BTC.

According to official announcements, French listed company Capital B announced it has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 5 coins, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 3,145.

Glassnode: Bitcoin is being sidelined amid the ongoing capital rotation, as risk capital continues to flow into U.S. stocks and AI assets.

Glassnode noted in a recent post that as U.S. consumer confidence has plunged to an all-time low, U.S. stock markets have continued to hit new all-time highs, creating a stark contrast between market sentiment and asset performance. Weak consumer confidence is driving capital to accelerate shifting from cash assets to stocks, artificial intelligence (AI)-related assets, and commodities, as investors seek higher returns by allocating to risk assets. Notably, Bitcoin has been noticeably overlooked in this round of capital rotation. While stocks, AI, and commodities continue to attract inflows, Bitcoin has not benefited in tandem, indicating that current market capital allocation remains concentrated primarily on traditional risk assets and AI themes, with BTC’s participation in this round of asset rotation being relatively limited.

The crypto market is in sideways consolidation with minor fluctuations, with Bitcoin continuing to accumulate positions around $63,000, as the market awaits a directional breakout.

According to HTX market data, the crypto market remains in sideways consolidation, awaiting a directional shift. Bitcoin is trading at $62,800, down 0.3% in 24 hours; Ethereum stands at $1,876, with a 0.35% 24-hour drop. The total crypto market cap fell 0.3% over the same period to $2.226 trillion. Multiple crypto firms and analysts have recently reached a collective consensus that major market volatility is imminent. BTC’s token accumulation at the $63,000 level has hit an extreme peak; technical indicators including Bitcoin’s Average Directional Index signal volatility is set to return, as the sideways range has persisted for a considerable time. The massive short-term token accumulation near $63,000 acts as a potential volatility trigger, with any external event potentially serving as a catalyst. The market is now in a tense pre-directional phase, with significant swings ahead, and investors are urged to exercise high caution. Some altcoins are seeing unusual movements: PORTAL rose 51.3% in 24 hours to $0.0165; ALICE gained 11.7% to $0.1376; DODO climbed 11.4% to $0.022.

CZ refutes claims that Bitcoin will go to zero, stating that many have made incorrect judgments about cryptocurrencies.

Binance founder CZ has commented on the World Gold Council (WGC) CEO’s assertion that Bitcoin’s value will fall to zero. CZ noted that many people have previously made incorrect judgments about cryptocurrencies, adding that understanding this field takes time, and he himself cannot be 100% certain he is right—after all, we are only human. The WGC CEO said in a recent interview: “Personally, my view is that Bitcoin will drop to zero, but this stance is not because Bitcoin is opposed to gold.”

CZ refutes claims that Bitcoin will go to zero, pointing out that many people have made incorrect judgments about cryptocurrencies.

Binance founder CZ has commented on the World Gold Council (WGC) CEO’s assertion that Bitcoin’s value will fall to zero. CZ noted that many people have previously made incorrect judgments about cryptocurrencies, adding that understanding the sector takes time, and he is not 100% certain he is right—after all, we are all human. In a recent interview, the WGC CEO stated, “My personal view on Bitcoin is that it will drop to zero, but this stance is not because Bitcoin is opposed to gold.”

Bitcoin falls below the $63,000 mark, posting a 0.04% drop over the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.04%.

Analysis: Bitcoin fails its first momentum push, can stay range-bound if it holds the $62,300 level

Blockchain analytics platform Swissblock has released a report stating that Bitcoin’s first momentum ignition has failed, meaning the previously projected trajectory pointing to March to April remains valid. The firm noted that the momentum indicator briefly rose above the zero line but lacked sufficient strength to complete a full ignition, and has since returned to the "Transition Area". Swissblock added that as long as Bitcoin holds the $62,300 to $62,500 range and the momentum indicator stays within the Transition Area, the current trend will remain in sideways consolidation. It emphasized that a failed momentum ignition is not uncommon, and the real focus is whether Bitcoin will break below the Transition Area. If this area is breached, Bitcoin will exit its current consolidation structure and face renewed risk of falling into a capitulation phase.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s first momentum attempt failed; if it defends the $62,300 level, it can still maintain sideways consolidation.

Blockchain analytics platform Swissblock has released a report stating that Bitcoin’s first momentum ignition has failed, meaning the earlier trajectory pointing to the March-April period remains valid. The firm explained that the momentum indicator briefly rose above the zero line but lacked sufficient strength to complete a full ignition, and has now returned to the "Transition Area". Swissblock added that as long as Bitcoin holds the $62,300-$62,500 range and the momentum indicator stays within the Transition Area, the current sideways consolidation will persist. It noted that momentum ignition failures are not uncommon; the key point to monitor is whether Bitcoin breaks below the Transition Area. If this level is breached, Bitcoin will exit its current consolidation structure and face renewed risk of falling into the capitulation phase.

Michael Saylor: MicroStrategy’s digital credit tool has outperformed Bitcoin over the past year, and financial engineering can mitigate downside risks.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor said that over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen by 47%, while Strategy’s digital credit instruments have delivered performance ranging from a 27% decline to a 9% gain over the same period, with STRC rising 9%. Financial engineering can convert highly volatile "digital capital" into financial instruments designed to generate returns, provide stability, and reduce downside risks.

Analysis: The potential 'lost' Bitcoin supply hits an all-time high, accounting for approximately 17.7% of the circulating supply.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that the amount of Bitcoin supply considered "lost" has reached an all-time high, currently standing at 3.56 million BTC, accounting for roughly 17.7% of the circulating supply. His metric refers to BTC that has not moved for over 10 years. While a tiny number of long-dormant Bitcoin does reactivate in rare cases—such as in July 2025—this long-unmoved supply as a whole continues to grow. More than 14,000 BTC have joined this long-dormant supply category over the past 30 days. This trend naturally reduces the amount of Bitcoin actually in active circulation.

Prominent crypto trader: If Bitcoin reclaims the $69,500 level, it will officially confirm a shift to a bull market.

Well-known trader Killa posted that Bitcoin has returned above the 0.8 level of the Mayer Multiple, after its price briefly dipped below that threshold earlier. He pointed out that in 2022, BTC also briefly fell below this level before reclaiming it. Killa stated that the real confirmation signal in 2022 came when Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average, following which the bull market began. Currently, BTC’s 200-day moving average is approximately $69,500. He believes that all that’s needed next is for Bitcoin to break back above and hold the 200-day moving average; once that happens, the market can be considered to have officially entered a bull market.

Analyst: Bitcoin may bottom out in October, suitable for dollar-cost averaging in the range of $48,000 to $62,000

Crypto analyst Ali Charts published a post stating that based on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, he predicts BTC will hit the bottom of this market cycle between October 6 and 16. He argues that before the final capitulation phase arrives, investors should implement a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy within the $62,000 to $48,000 range to gradually accumulate Bitcoin. He judges the current bear market is nearing its end, adding that now is the time to start turning bullish.

Harvard’s endowment fund discloses holding $2.21 billion worth of SpaceX shares, while its Bitcoin ETF holdings remain unchanged.

Harvard University’s endowment fund’s latest 13F filing shows that as of June 30, its holdings of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) remained at 3.0446 million shares, valued at approximately $101.4 million — matching the exact number held at the end of the first quarter, ending two consecutive quarters of reductions. Harvard had cut its IBIT position by 21% in Q4 2025, followed by a 43% reduction in Q1 2026. Currently, IBIT accounts for roughly 2.4% of Harvard’s disclosed $4.26 billion U.S. equity portfolio. Its gold-related product holdings are worth more: as of the end of Q2, its combined positions in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) total approximately $171.2 million. Harvard previously liquidated its BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF holdings worth $86.8 million, and added no new Ethereum-related positions in the second quarter. Harvard’s largest holding is SpaceX, with 12,935,100 shares valued at $2.21 billion, making it the largest single stock position disclosed in the filing. The total U.S. equity assets Harvard disclosed in this filing are approximately $4.3 billion, meaning SpaceX’s stake accounts for 52% of that total. Among other institutions, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council each maintained their IBIT positions unchanged at 14.7219 million shares and 8.2187 million shares respectively, for a combined value of approximately $764 million. JPMorgan Chase increased its IBIT holdings from roughly 8.3 million shares to 10.4 million shares; Morgan Stanley cut its IBIT position from 17.3 million shares to approximately 16.5 million shares, a 4.5% reduction.

Analysis: Bitcoin is in the "extreme discount" zone of the Rainbow Chart, with its downward deviation surpassing that of the previous bear market bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that Bitcoin is currently trading in the lowest range of the Rainbow Chart model — "basically a fire sale price". This represents an extreme discount relative to the cryptocurrency’s long-term price trajectory, and is not merely a measure of how much Bitcoin has declined. The Rainbow Chart model compares Bitcoin’s current price to its long-term trend, so the gap reflects the market’s deviation from historical patterns. The volatility-adjusted Z-Score now stands at -2.293, the lowest reading since 2016 and lower than the -1.979 recorded at the 2022 bear market bottom. This metric accounts for volatility differences across distinct market cycles, meaning the current downward deviation from the model is more severe than that seen at the last bear market’s trough. Bitcoin is now in an extreme discount zone, with the volatility-adjusted Z-Score hitting a 10-year low. This signals significant undervaluation relative to the model, but it does not alone confirm the final market bottom. Extremely low valuations point to a potentially attractive entry range, though a market reversal would need separate confirmation. Note: The Z-Score is a widely used standardized statistical metric that quantifies how far a data point lies from the mean, measured in units of standard deviation.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s apparent demand has improved significantly, but structural hoarding volumes remain insufficient to fully absorb new supply.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s apparent demand has improved notably but remains negative at -32,000 BTC. When Bitcoin entered its current consolidation range in early June, demand was estimated at -272,000 BTC. This is a positive development, though not yet robust enough. Similar patterns were observed in February and May 2026, after which demand weakened again. This may also be tied to falling average mining output, as hash rate has declined, leading to lower production. Thus, this is not yet strong positive momentum, but the trend merits close monitoring. Note: Apparent demand is calculated as the number of newly mined BTC minus supply that has not moved for over a year. In other words, this metric assesses whether structural hoarding is sufficient to absorb new supply generated by the network.

CZ: Bitcoin is a deflationary asset, with only approximately 4.4% of its total supply remaining to be mined.

Binance founder CZ posted on social media, stating, "As of August 2026, over 20.07 million Bitcoin will have been mined, leaving only roughly 4.4% of its total supply left to mine. I estimate that 10% to 20% of existing Bitcoin has been lost, is inaccessible, or cannot be recovered. It is a deflationary asset."

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs attracted $1.1 billion in capital last week, ending a net outflow trend that persisted for most of 2026.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together recorded combined net inflows of $1.1 billion last week, ending a trend of sustained net outflows that has persisted for most of 2026, as institutional capital flows back to the crypto market. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF IBIT was the main source of these inflows, accounting for roughly 80% of total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, market trading activity remains relatively subdued, with BTC ETF volumes hitting their second-lowest level since October 2024 last week. Prior to this, BTC and ETH ETFs had faced persistent net outflow pressures. As market sentiment improved, institutional investors resumed increasing their digital asset allocations, resulting in a clear reversal in ETF fund flows. Market analysts note that IBIT has remained the primary channel for institutional capital to enter the Bitcoin market, showing that traditional financial institutions still prefer gaining crypto exposure via regulated ETF vehicles.

Cboe applies to the SEC for approval of the first U.S. 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The Cboe BZX Exchange, a unit of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), has filed a rule change application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch the U.S. market’s first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Per the filing, Cboe plans to list ETFs including 3x Bitcoin ETFs, 3x Ethereum ETFs, and 3x leveraged ETFs for gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. These products aim to deliver 3x the daily returns of their underlying assets by holding futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), with cash and cash equivalents serving as collateral. The proposed ETFs will operate as "commodity pools" regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than the traditional ETF structure overseen by the SEC under the Investment Company Act of 1940. As leveraged products do not meet the exchange’s existing general listing standards, Cboe is required to file a special rule change application with the SEC and plans to concurrently submit an S-1 registration statement under the Securities Act of 1933. Cboe stated that this structure will provide an additional federal regulatory layer. The funds will be issued by Volatility Shares LLC and operated under VS Trust. Market analysts note that 3x leveraged ETFs are primarily targeted at short-term trading and professional investors, and are not suitable as long-term holding instruments. Previously, Volatility Shares had launched 2x Bitcoin and Ethereum strategy ETFs in the U.S., while Europe saw the launch of the first 3x and inverse 3x Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products last year.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of $56.2 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net outflows.

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $56.2 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded no net inflows or outflows yesterday.

Jump Crypto transferred 1,560 BTC to Binance this week, worth approximately $99.2 million, sparking speculation that the crypto firm may have sold the Bitcoin.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Jump Crypto has continued transferring Bitcoin (BTC) to Binance this week, with total deposits reaching around 1,560 BTC valued at approximately $99.2 million, suspected to be for a sale operation. The latest data shows Jump Crypto transferred an additional 286.83 BTC to Binance just two hours ago, worth roughly $18.01 million. As of now, Jump Crypto’s wallet still holds around 1,410 BTC valued at about $88.58 million. The market will continue to track its subsequent transfers and changes in holdings.

Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term panic sentiment has eased, with the $60,000 to $70,000 range emerging as a key battleground.

Glassnode stated in a report that Bitcoin’s native options market remains generally sluggish overall, with implied volatility (IV) and skewness continuing to narrow, while positions are gradually concentrating around key strike prices, making the options market structure more distinct. Data shows Bitcoin’s short-dated IV has continued to decline, with the 1-period at-the-money (ATM) IV dropping to around 26%, while the 6-month tenor remains at roughly 39%. The term structure has steepened further, indicating traders’ low expectations for short-term price volatility, while still pricing in longer-term uncertainty. Demand for downside protection in the market has weakened, and overall option positions are no longer as defensive as they were previously. On the gamma exposure front, negative gamma is primarily concentrated in the lower $60,000 range, while positive gamma has gradually shifted to around $70,000. This means BTC is more likely to see larger price swings during downward moves, while upward approaches to the $70,000 level may be stabilized by market maker hedging. The options market’s defensive posture has eased somewhat, though it has not yet entered excessive complacency. The decline in implied volatility and skewness reflects easing short-term panic, while the concentration of gamma and strike positions indicates that the $60,000 to $70,000 range remains the key zone for Bitcoin’s next directional move.

Morgan Stanley significantly increased its holdings of Circle to 8.32 million shares in Q2, and added to its positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Morgan Stanley’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that as of June 30, it held approximately 16.5 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT, a 23% increase from the 13.4 million shares held in the first quarter. However, due to a decline in Bitcoin prices during the quarter, the position’s market value fell to $549 million from $667 million, a roughly 18% drop. During the same period, Morgan Stanley also held 2.57 million shares of MSBT worth around $43.3 million, and increased its holdings in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity’s FBTC, with FBTC positions rising nearly 38%. For Ethereum-related assets, its holdings of ETHA surged approximately 202% to 4.6 million shares, while its stake in Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF rose by around 26% to 5.1 million shares. Additionally, Morgan Stanley established new positions in Grayscale’s Solana Staking ETF and Fidelity’s Solana Fund, with respective market values of roughly $4.25 million and $2.26 million. In terms of individual stocks, Morgan Stanley’s holdings in Circle (CRCL) jumped from approximately 1.46 million shares to 8.32 million shares. It also expanded positions in crypto mining and infrastructure firms including Cipher Digital, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Bitdeer. Conversely, it trimmed its Coinbase stake by around 550,000 shares, cut holdings in CleanSpark by more than 3.1 million shares, and liquidated its entire position of roughly 8 million shares in Bitfarms.

August 14 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -2,015 $BTC(-$126.06M)🔴 7D NetFlow: -3,890 $BTC(-$243.38M)🔴 #Ethereum ...

August 14 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -2,015 $BTC(-$126.06M)?? 7D NetFlow: -3,890 $BTC(-$243.38M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -277 $ETH(-$517.08K)?? 7D NetFlow: +22,908 $ETH(+$42.74M)??

JPMorgan boosted its holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Q2: its stake in IBIT rose by 25%, while its position in ETHA increased more than threefold.

JPMorgan Chase’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveals that as of June 30, the firm held approximately 10.4 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT—up roughly 25% from the 8.3 million shares it held in the first quarter, with a disclosed holding value of around $356 million. Over the same period, its position in BlackRock’s ETHA rose from roughly 267,000 shares to about 1.17 million shares, an increase of more than three times and exceeding four times its prior holding size. The filing also disclosed small holdings in XRP-related investment products for the first time, including 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP product and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF. Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, pointed out that this 13F covers 18 investment management entities under JPMorgan, with some positions potentially linked to client trades or inventory management. Since 13F filings do not disclose short positions, it is impossible to assess JPMorgan’s net exposure or directional views on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) solely based on these long positions. Separately, JPMorgan cut its holdings in multiple Bitcoin mining companies during the second quarter. Randin noted that as some mining firms expand into AI and high-performance computing, their status as proxy assets for Bitcoin prices is weakening.

Strategy responds to reports that it may face removal from MSCI indices: Bitcoin does not need MSCI, and neither does Strategy.

Strategy issued a statement responding to the possibility of being removed from MSCI indices, stating: "Digital assets are assets. Index providers should measure the market, not decide which assets companies can hold." The firm added that MSCI’s relevant proposal is inconsistent with the direction of regulators, the market, and its own clients, emphasizing: "Bitcoin does not need MSCI, and neither does Strategy." Earlier reports noted that MSCI is soliciting feedback on a new non-operating company identification methodology, which could result in Strategy and Metaplanet being excluded from the MSCI All Country World Investable Market Index (ACWI IMI). Based on MSCI’s simulation using May 2026 data, Strategy, Metaplanet, and uranium investment firm Yellow Cake would be removed from MSCI ACWI IMI, while entities including SharpLink would be placed on the public watchlist.