Bitcoins Distribution Phase: Why a Drop to $90K is Imminent

Bitcoin – Stock Market What’s Next?

The Big Sunday Report: Everything You Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

Bitcoin:  The average retail entry price for longs and spot sits between 117k–122k, with most retail positions opened in the last 3 months. The majority of these entries are still underwater, sitting in loss, but short-term stress hasn’t broken them yet. Two weeks ago when BTC dropped to 107k we saw smaller panic sells and some longs closed in loss by retail, but not a significant realization of loss. Market makers know this. That’s why they continue to unload in the 115k–125k zone, aggressively but wisely, taking profits without leaving obvious footprints on the chart. Why else do you think we’ve been stuck in this sideways chop since July? Sideways markets usually speak two languages only, either accumulation or distribution! So lets answer this question wether the market is currently in an accumulation (Buying) or Distribution (Selling) market.

Take it to the next step: how many retail players entered here, and how many institutions? How many retailers are taking profits? How many institutions? The truth is clear: whales are unloading BIG! Big holders with 1,000–10,000 BTC have sold $13B of BTC in the last 30 days, this is the largest whale sell-off since July 2022 at previous ATH levels! They dumped about 116,000 BTC in that period. Meanwhile, after strong inflows in July, Bitcoin spot ETF flows have slowed hard since early August down to approx. 500 BTC/day. That means less new capital, less absorption, and more profit-taking pressure. Yes, flows remain positive in places, but the intensity has is no longer there as we have seen during this cycle. Without consistent inflows, demand can’t match supply. That’s why the 115k–125k zone is nothing more than a massive profit-taking area for whales and big players. No matter how long we move in this zone, the big move after this zone is to the downside, and yet retail celebrates every revisit to 120k like it’s a victory, blind to the fact they’re cheering inside a distribution range. Even if BTC spikes again into 120–125k, those same people will celebrate, not realizing they’re being used as exit liquidity for bigger hands. I will continue to add shorts, and I’ll short more agressive if market allows to visit higher into 125k! 

I warned in early August: market makers would pump altcoins to distract while they sell BTC. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Alts rally, BTC dominance drops, greed explodes which is the perfect distraction. Yet people act surprised to see alts moving this strong. I told you this weeks ago, if it’s a quick trade with quick profit-taking, fine. But to believe this is the start of a real altseason is stupidity. The so-called “altcoin index” shows 78 out of 100 alts outperforming BTC, but most of this “strength” comes from newly listed, exchange-pumped coins with no coin history and no fundamentals! You dont believe it? See the highest gainers and you will find out these are coins you never heard about and existing since few days or weeks only!

BTC funding is fairly neutral, slightly tilted long, but nothing extreme enough to force a squeeze. BTC also reclaimed the golden line, not because the market turned bullish, but because market makers want to manage sentiment, to keep fear out while they continue unloading above it. Our strategy remains the same: take profits only above 115k and enter shorts only in the 115k–125k range. Meanwhile altcoins are heavily in over-leveraged long, which makes the entire space dangerously fragile. Most of liquidity remains in the downside till the region of 90k! There is some small liquidity remaining in 117-118k but nothing compared to whats in the downside. Tons of liquidity starts from 106k, moves down till 90k!

My BTC position: As you can see on the chart, BTC is back in my short, sell zone, 115k–125k. Today I added the final 10% into USDT/shorts and closed out my entire spot positions. Profit-taking was a one month process as BTC barely moved inside the sell zone over the last 30 days. Now I stand 100% in Shorts/USDT, 0% Spot, 0% Stocks. All the take profit and short orders been executed between 115-125k! The only assets I hold are Gold & Silver.

And now comes the big lie: in the coming days you’ll hear endless hype about $7.5T.

The FOMC is about to cut 25bp, already priced in. What matters now is not the cut itself but what Powell says, because this time the cut is significant. I made it clear two weeks ago: this is the first real cut of the cycle where.

Look at the yields, exactly what I warned in my report. In 2024, yields crashed –16% into the Fed’s first cut. Markets rushed into bonds, betting on lower rates. 

Add to this the worst job market in the history of the USA. Today’s numbers are a shock, and if inflation data in the coming days comes in worse, fear will spike violently. The only ones celebrating these cuts are retail gamblers.