VanEck Analyst: This Round of Bitcoin Plunge Had No Single Catalyst, Predicting Market Bottom Will Be More Challenging

February 7 — Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets Research, noted that unlike past steep Bitcoin price drops with clear triggers, this latest sell-off lacks a single catalyst. That has made it harder to call a market bottom—but could also set the stage for a clearer recovery. Factors driving Bitcoin’s drop to $60k on Thursday include: leverage unwinding, miners forced to offload, fading AI hype, rising quantum computing concerns, and the psychological weight of Bitcoin’s unofficial four-year cycle. **Massive Deleveraging** Futures open interest hit a $90 billion peak in early October but has since plunged from ~$61 billion a week ago to ~$49 billion—meaning the market has unwound over 45% of its peak leverage. **Fading AI Hype** Investors now question whether firms like OpenAI and cloud providers can turn massive infrastructure spending into profits. With ROI on hundreds of billions in infrastructure uncertain and commercialization paths murky, this skepticism has hit Bitcoin miners hard. **Rising Quantum Computing Concerns** Investor interest in the topic has grown, and discussions on developer/community forums are more active—though most Bitcoin core devs still downplay the risk’s urgency. **Four-Year Cycle Psychological Impact** Bitcoin follows a strict (yet unofficial) four-year cycle: halvings cut new supply, usually pushing prices up; then investors take profits, shifting to a bear phase. “That four-year cycle narrative still looms large in investor psychology,” Sigel said.