Goldman Sachs Asset Management: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to enter a sustained interest rate hike cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base has confirmed crossing above that of Active Long-Term Holders (LTH), signaling a shift in market momentum, leading him to conclude that Bitcoin’s bull market has been confirmed. This marks the 5th occurrence of this signal in history, though he stressed the relevant indicator still carries a risk of misjudgment. "Active LTH" is defined as long-term held Bitcoin that has moved at least once in the past seven years, to exclude long-term dormant or non-circulating BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this supply growing by an average of 8,000 to 30,000 BTC monthly. Since 2019, this indicator has only recorded one instance of negative growth, triggered by an early miner reactivating and transferring roughly 100,000 BTC—a relatively isolated event. Darkfost argues the current signal reflects positive shifts in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows serving as one of the driving factors.

According to market sources, the Season 2 points campaign of on-chain trading terminal Genius, in which YZi Labs has invested, has undergone adjustments. The platform originally promised to unlock 70 million GENIUS tokens on October 25 to incentivize user trading and points accumulation, but subsequent changes were made. Previously, official documents stated that Season 2 would run from April 10 to August 10, with 1.5 million points distributed daily; recently, the platform’s page has been updated to remove the season’s stated end date, and daily points have been cut to 50,000. CoinMarketCap data shows that the unlock time for the 70 million tokens has been delayed to February 2028. Some participants are demanding that tokens be unlocked as originally scheduled, or that relevant fees from Season 2 be refunded.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, after a one-week pause, Multicoin Capital has once again deposited 130,331 HYPE tokens into Coinbase Prime, valued at approximately $12.15 million. Since July 28, the firm has cumulatively deposited 4.23 million HYPE tokens into Coinbase Prime, with a total value of around $285 million.

After a one-week break, #MulticoinCapital deposited another 130,331 $HYPE ($12.15M) into #CoinbasePrime. Since July 28, #MulticoinCapital has deposited a total of 4.23M $HYPE ($285M) into #CoinbasePrime.

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl wrote that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s recent "Innovation Exemption" order is designed to bring on-chain trading of tokenized equities into the regulated U.S. financial system, shifting the market away from its current model dominated by offshore derivative-style "wrapped assets" toward tokenized securities that grant holders full voting rights and dividend entitlements. The order temporarily relaxes two key registration requirements: Eligible trading venues do not need to register as securities exchanges, and qualified liquidity providers are exempt from registering as broker-dealers. This means approved wallet addresses can trade tokenized equities using stablecoins via permissioned Uniswap liquidity pools. However, the exemption comes with multiple conditions: Relevant transactions must occur on public blockchains, participants must be pre-approved, and trading venues must publicly disclose information before commencing operations. Rules on fraud, market manipulation, anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and OFAC sanctions screening remain in effect. Additionally, the order is valid for five years and sets caps on the number of securities that can be listed and transaction volumes. U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins called the order a "temporary measure," noting that long-term regulatory rules still need to be developed. Grayscale argues the exemption will support the continued growth of the tokenized equities market and validate that blockchain transaction infrastructure can balance compliance requirements with investor protection. If the pilot is successful, regulatory scope may be further expanded, pushing the U.S. Congress to enact relevant bipartisan legislation.

Japan’s bond market reopened after a three-day holiday, immediately following a sell-off in US Treasuries. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose 10 basis points on Thursday to 3.075%, hitting its highest level since August 1996; the 5-year yield climbed around 9.5 basis points to 2.37%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.134%. United Overseas Bank (UOB) noted that the current global bond sell-off is mainly driven by a rebound in oil prices, stronger-than-expected US PMI data, and weak demand for the $70 billion 5-year US Treasury auction. As a result, the 5-year US Treasury yield broke through 5%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield also rose to a nearly 19-year high, driving a repricing of global long-term borrowing costs. Domestic factors in Japan further amplified bond market pressure. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its benchmark interest rate last Friday and hinted at possible further monetary policy tightening, though it did not specify the pace of future actions. Additionally, the Japanese government is considering raising its medium-term defense budget target to 3.5% of GDP, intensifying market concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt financing costs. Analysts point out that Japan has long been a key anchor of the global low-interest-rate environment. As Japanese government bond yields continue to rise, carry trades relying on low-cost yen financing may face adjustments, and volatility in global asset prices could further intensify.