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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 7944 updates and counting.

2026.06.25 12:37

The crypto market is under pressure due to intensified tech stock sell-offs, with Bitcoin once hitting its lowest level since October 2024.

According to a report by the Financial Times, driven by intensified sell-offs in tech stocks, Bitcoin has plunged to a 20-month low as market risk sentiment continues to weaken. Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, with an intraday drop of up to 5.4%, hitting its lowest level since October 2024. Over the past two years, traders have viewed $60,000 as a key support level. This sell-off follows widespread selling of large-cap tech stocks this week. Traders are betting the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates to tackle inflation; higher rates are likely to suppress risk appetite, prompting investors to re-evaluate overvalued assets and shift toward relatively safe assets. In recent years, crypto assets have been highly correlated with stock market moves, but this relationship is now under strain. Bitcoin and Solana have fallen 32% and 47% respectively this year, with no significant recovery even amid stock market rebounds. Part of the reason is declining retail investor demand for crypto, as they turn to chasing volatility in AI-related stocks. Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at crypto asset management firm Hashdex, noted that with large IPOs and AI stocks dominating the market, sentiment remains weak. Analysts currently do not see major catalysts for the crypto market. U.S. capital markets are still digesting SpaceX’s world’s largest IPO, which listed on Nasdaq earlier this month, with AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow. Meanwhile, the U.S. digital asset regulatory bill Clarity Act remains stalled in the Senate. The bill faces strong opposition from the banking sector and has not yet secured enough bipartisan support.

2026.06.25 08:11

Analysis: Bitcoin miners face profit pressure, with around 20% of mining firms now operating below the break-even point.

Bitcoin miners' revenue continues to decline, with the current 7-day average daily income dropping to around $30 million, a notable pullback from the over $50 million level seen last summer. Meanwhile, on-chain transaction fee revenue has fallen to less than $250,000, accounting for an extremely small share of miners' total income. Data from JPMorgan Chase shows the average production cost is approximately $78,000, and Bitcoin’s price has remained below this level for five consecutive months — the longest such stretch in the current cycle. An estimated 20% of miners are already operating at a loss; some high-cost miners have begun frequently powering their mining rigs on and off in response to price fluctuations, leading to a stronger correlation between network hash rate difficulty and Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty was adjusted down by roughly 10% in the second week of June, marking the second pullback of the same magnitude this year. Publicly listed mining companies, meanwhile, are relying more on their balance sheets to sustain operations, selling over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone to cover operating costs. Analysts note that against the backdrop of continuously shrinking block subsidies and stagnant fee revenue, a recovery in miners’ profits will primarily depend on a rise in Bitcoin’s price.

2026.06.24 23:20

Bitcoin falls below the bottom of the Rainbow Chart, entering the "Bitcoin Is Dead" zone.

Bitcoin has fallen below the lower range of the long-popular valuation model, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, marking only the second time in history it has dipped into the purple zone labeled "Bitcoin is Dead" in the original framework. Developed by Reddit user Azop in 2014, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart uses logarithmic growth curves to track Bitcoin’s long-term price trends, with distinct color zones corresponding to different market sentiment phases. Some Bitcoin holders view the current plunge into this zone as a key buying opportunity, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s 2022 drop to around $15,000, which later formed the cycle’s bottom. However, analysts are divided on this signal. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said the price’s first break below a range that has held for over a decade signals a structural shift in the model. He does not believe this means Bitcoin is dead; instead, he argues the Rainbow Chart has become invalid. Emad Shahin, COO of Ethra, noted that the Rainbow Chart acts more as a sentiment indicator than a predictive tool. Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, added that the "Bitcoin is Dead" zone does not actually mean Bitcoin is defunct—historically, it typically reflects extreme panic and undervaluation, often followed by a recovery. As institutional investors, ETF flows, derivatives activity, and macro factors carry increasing weight in Bitcoin pricing, the validity of relying solely on historical valuation models is waning. Lee stated that Bitcoin’s current position at the Rainbow Chart’s lower levels points to weak market sentiment, but does not guarantee another sharp new low. If risk appetite deteriorates further, Bitcoin still cannot rule out a drop to the $50,000 range.

2026.06.24 19:50

21Shares: Bitcoin Could Rebound to $100,000 by End of Year, Current Trend Aligns With Post-Halving Cycle Characteristics

Asset management firm 21Shares has released its mid-year crypto market report, revisiting its 2026 industry forecast and setting a base-case target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end. Bitcoin previously hit an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, and is currently trading at roughly $62,300, approximately 50% below that peak. 21Shares noted that Bitcoin’s post-halving price trajectory “still looks familiar”, with the current pullback aligning closely with historical post-halving patterns, though the decline is far smaller than the over 80% pullbacks seen in prior cycles. The report points out that Bitcoin remains above the $54,000 aggregate investor cost basis, with no signs of the capitulation sell-offs observed in previous bear cycles, signaling a more mature market and stickier capital flows. The report also shows that as of May 2026, global crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) stood at around $140 billion, down roughly 15% year-to-date; ETPs hold approximately 1.25 million BTC, about 8% below their prior peak. 21Shares attributes the decline primarily to price movements rather than widespread liquidations. While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around $3 billion, underlying BTC allocations remain near cycle highs. Additionally, the report states that prediction market trading volume reached $57.5 billion by the end of May, already exceeding half of the firm’s full-year forecast. Full-year volume is on track to hit $100 billion, and could challenge $200 billion in the second half, driven by events including the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm congressional elections. Total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) remains around $140 billion, below 21Shares’ earlier forecast of $300 billion. Public on-chain tokenized assets amount to $31 billion, including $15 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries.

2026.06.24 14:57

Analysis: Bitcoin OG Selling Drops to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years, Market Bottom Signs Multiply

On-chain data shows that selling activity by Bitcoin long-term holders (commonly known as "OGs") who have held coins for over five years has plummeted to its lowest level in nearly two years. According to CryptoQuant data, the 90-day average daily selling volume of these veteran investors has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024, falling below the 1,000 BTC threshold for the first time. This shift is significant. Since the start of the current bull market in early 2023, selling pressure from the OG cohort has reached an all-time high for Bitcoin, with massive sell-off peaks in May 2024, February 2025, and September 2025. Daily selling volumes once exceeded 142,000 BTC, exerting notable downward pressure on prices and considered one of the key reasons why Bitcoin struggled to sustain gains after breaking through the $100,000 mark last year. CryptoQuant analysts note that this slowdown in selling is no coincidence: Bitcoin’s current price of around $63,000 is nearly at the break-even point of the most expensive coins likely purchased by OGs five years ago. Holding rather than selling is now the rational choice, meaning a major core selling pressure that had been weighing on prices is substantially easing. Meanwhile, net outflows from spot ETFs have also narrowed significantly over the past two weeks, aligning with the slowdown in OG selling. Multiple contrarian indicators collectively point to a potential market bottom. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,776, with little change over the past 24 hours.

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