Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.4 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $69.7 million.

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.4 million yesterday, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $69.7 million, marking three consecutive trading days of net outflows.

Fidelity: Correlation Between Bitcoin's Market Cap and US Treasury Yields Hits All-Time High

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while the size of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments exceeding Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Fidelity pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. real interest rate was long low, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped more than 10% in the same period. Fidelity argues that amid rising government debt, higher financing costs and growing concerns over fiscal intervention, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins may boost its appeal as a potential hedge against currency devaluation and a portfolio diversification tool. If current debt and interest rate trends persist, government interest payments could even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future. U.S. Treasury data shows that the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 rose to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, military spending, Social Security expenditures and Treasury interest payments continue to climb, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further expanding the fiscal deficit.

TD Cowen raises Strive’s price target by 27% to $56, bullish on its continued Bitcoin accumulation.

TD Cowen analysts raised the target price of Bitcoin reserve company Strive (ticker: ASST) from $44 to $56, a roughly 27% increase. The analysts noted that Strive’s Bitcoin purchases over the past two weeks have already surpassed its full fourth-quarter forecast. As of now, Strive holds 35,595 BTC, valued at around $2.9 billion at current prices—an increase of nearly 7,600 BTC from the 28,000 it held at the end of September, exceeding TD Cowen’s prior Q4 target of 4,750 BTC added. Its Bitcoin holdings now rank fourth among public listed firms, slightly higher than MARA’s reported position. On the financing front, Strive expanded its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares, priced at $90 per share, with a planned raise of $630 million, expected to close on October 20. TD Cowen believes this offering will fund further Bitcoin purchases while avoiding common stock issuance. The analysts also pointed out that prior warrant exercises had increased diluted share counts, pressuring Bitcoin yields, but with the $27 strike price warrants now exhausted, the related pressure is expected to ease.

Perspective: Bitcoin may need to rally above $350,000 before entering a deep bear market, with a projected 70% to 80% price drop.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently stated in a post that Bitcoin could enter a deep bear market in the coming years, with a potential decline of 70% to 80%. However, due to strong support in the $100,000 to $125,000 range, he believes Bitcoin may first need to rally to $350,000 or even higher to create space for the next significant correction. Hyland also pointed out that this cycle could last 8 years instead of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle. He added that the macroeconomic headwinds of this cycle have lasted twice as long as those of prior cycles, leading to a corresponding extension of Bitcoin's cycle timeline, and he projects Bitcoin will peak in 2028.

Bitcoin drops below $81,000, Ethereum falls below $2,400

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $81,000, with a current price of $80,936. Ethereum has fallen below $2,400, now priced at $2,397.

Bitcoin mining difficulty rises by 5.92% to 140.58 T.

According to data from mempool.space, Bitcoin completed its latest mining difficulty adjustment at block height 971712 at 20:37:31 Beijing Time today, with the difficulty rising by 5.92% to 140.58T.

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for MSTR to $208, and forecasts Bitcoin will climb to $112,000 over the next 12 months.

Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald today raised its price target for Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) from $186 to $208, while maintaining an Overweight rating. Analyst Ramsey El-Assal upgraded his 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from $98,000 to $112,000 in the latest report. The report also updated the company’s latest Bitcoin holdings data (approximately 848,000 coins) and lifted its enterprise value valuation from around $97 billion to roughly $110 billion. The adjustment reflects the analyst’s more optimistic assessment of the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves, though the market remains focused on related risks such as whether the company may be removed from some MSCI indices.

Bitcoin ETFs See $15.86M Inflow, Ethereum ETFs Lose $60.84M in Single Day

Oct 16 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +194 $BTC(+$15.86M)?? 7D NetFlow: -1,643 $BTC(-$134.56M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -24,792 $ETH(-$60.84M)?? 7D NetFlow: -119,753 $ETH(-$293.85M)??

Lightning Labs unveils LayerTree, a Bitcoin scaling solution that allows up to around 1 million users to share a single UTXO.

Lightning Labs has proposed a Bitcoin scaling solution called LayerTree, a non-custodial architecture that allows up to around 1 million users to share a single UTXO and connect to the Lightning Network. Balances are recorded in an off-chain Merkle-sum tree, with the shared output committing to the tree’s root, enabling users to exit unilaterally via a single transaction. The scheme depends on as-yet-unactivated Bitcoin consensus layer changes—such as covenant-related opcodes—and cannot be directly deployed on the mainnet at this time. The project team states that LayerTree is a design and reference implementation, and the opcodes it uses remain proposals rather than active consensus rules.

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders’ holdings rise to 4.08 million coins, up 422,000 from July’s low.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders currently hold approximately 4.08 million bitcoin, the highest level since mid-June. Since the July 29 low, this holding has risen by around 422,000 units, a 12% increase. Of that total, some 154,000 bitcoin were added in the first two weeks of October, and a further 48,000 in the past week. He added that most new buyers entered the market in the $82,000 to $86,000 range. As of press time, the average cost basis for short-term holders stands at roughly $74,900, with their unrealized profit buffer narrowing from about 16% to around 10%. Adler noted that $74,900 is the breakeven point for this group, and bitcoin prices have remained above this cost level since August 20. A drop below this threshold would push the group into overall unrealized losses, potentially intensifying selling pressure.

Analyst: As interest rate hike expectations rise, short positions in the Bitcoin derivatives market have regained dominance.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted in a post that the BTC funding rate on Binance has turned negative, currently standing at -0.0073%. A negative funding rate typically signals strong market short demand, with the overall derivatives market sentiment clearly leaning bearish. The last time this occurred was in June this year, when BTC traded around $62,000. It is important to note that Binance’s funding rate formula uses a 0.01% interest rate parameter, so the neutral funding rate is not 0% but 0.01%. The current rate falling below zero means short positions have clearly gained the upper hand. This signal warrants attention, especially against the backdrop of this week’s underperforming macroeconomic data: both U.S. CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, further stoking market expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, BTC has seen a notable correction since breaking above $87,000 a few days ago. Historically, when the market forms a highly consistent bearish outlook, prices sometimes move in the opposite direction, which may indicate a trend reversal, though the duration of such reversals varies widely. While this signal has reference value, traders still need to carefully develop entry strategies in combination with key technical levels. Two key price levels to monitor currently are $80,000 and $74,000.

Analyst: The recent sell pressure driving Bitcoin’s decline mainly stems from short-term holders, with the intensity of such pressure easing.

Crypto market analyst Murphy noted that the volume of Bitcoin (BTC) transfers from short-term holders (STHs) to trading platforms has risen significantly recently, with an average of around 2,200 BTC moved per hour over four hours, marking the fourth highest peak since the start of this year’s August market rally. However, the transfer volume on October 15 was lower than that on October 8, indicating that selling pressure from STHs has eased somewhat. In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred a smaller amount to trading platforms yesterday, with an average of only around 480 BTC per hour over four hours—less than one-fifth of the STHs’ volume. This shows that amid recent market declines and rising expectations of macro headwinds, LTHs as a whole remain relatively stable. It is worth noting that LTHs’ transfer volume on October 8 once hit 3,700 BTC per hour. While it cannot be ruled out that some holders temporarily moved assets due to hardware wallet-related issues, the large transfers from both LTHs and STHs that day, paired with Bitcoin’s rapid price drop, confirm there was indeed actual selling pressure in the market at that time. During the recent Bitcoin downturn, the main entities transferring assets to trading platforms were STHs, with LTHs staying stable overall, and STHs’ transfer scale has decreased compared to October 8.

Capital B posted a net loss of approximately 69.5 million euros in the first half of the year, primarily due to impairment of Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin treasury firm Capital B released its H1 2026 financial results, reporting revenue of €5.846 million, a 3.5% year-over-year rise; net loss reached approximately €69.5 million, compared to a net loss of €1.9 million in the same period last year. The loss was mainly driven by an additional impairment charge of around €67.5 million booked based on BTC prices as of June 30, which had no cash impact. As of September 30, the company’s strategic reserve held 3,538 BTC, a 25.3% increase from January, with a total acquisition cost of €310.6 million, averaging €87,805 per BTC. The announcement confirmed that as of October 15, the strategic reserve count remained at 3,538 BTC, with an extra 61 BTC held for operational use, which are not included in strategic reserve-related metrics. The company announced about €27.5 million in financing during H1, and another €31.7 million in financing between the end of the first half and the announcement date. As of September 30, the company’s available cash stood at €4.6 million, which, combined with the operational BTC, totaled roughly €9.1 million in value.

A whale that shifted its holdings from Bitcoin to Ethereum has purchased another 9,820 ETH.

According to Yuqing Monitoring, whales and institutions that sold BTC to buy ETH continued their activity over the past day: they sold 288.9 BTC for 23.48 million USDC, then used the proceeds to purchase 9,820 ETH. Over the past five days, these entities have collectively sold 1,601.1 BTC for 132 million USDC, and in turn bought 53,095 ETH at an average price of $2,497.

Justin Sun on Quantum Threat: Market Severely Underestimates Potential Devastating Impact of Q-Day on Bitcoin’s Price

Justin Sun recently discussed the potential threat of quantum computing to the crypto industry in an interview, noting, "Mathematics is extremely critical to the crypto sector, and right now everyone is focused on quantum attacks. Tron is advancing and implementing NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) post-quantum encryption standards to enable blockchains to resist quantum attacks. This technology is already live on the testnet, and is expected to roll out on the mainnet as early as the start of next year. Many people have severely underestimated the destructive power of Quantum Threat Day (Q-Day). Most in the crypto industry have no clue how slow the Bitcoin network’s consensus mechanism is. I’ve been part of the Bitcoin community since 2012, and the entire community’s technological progress has been very gradual. Even if the entire network clearly knows a certain disaster will strike in two years, getting the entire Bitcoin network to reach consensus and complete an upgrade in just that timeframe is an almost impossible task. Fund managers at major U.S. financial institutions like BlackRock simply haven’t spent enough time researching this issue. In their traditional mindset, this might seem like a bug in Apple’s iOS system: two minutes later, Apple releases an update patch, everyone clicks to upgrade, and the problem is fixed. But the technological evolution of public blockchains is nothing like that. These institutions have invested tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in Bitcoin, yet they don’t actually participate in its development, don’t understand its underlying technology, and don’t care about its technical evolution—just like a fund manager who buys Apple stock won’t study iOS’s underlying code daily. Quantum Threat Day will definitely be a major headache, and the market has severely underestimated the potential devastating impact Q-Day could have on Bitcoin’s price."

Crypto mining firm Hut 8 reportedly sold 1,589 Bitcoin over the past two days.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet linked to crypto mining firm Hut 8 has deposited 1,589 BTC (valued at $130 million) to a centralized exchange (CEX) over the past two days, likely for sale. The company holds a total of 10,278 BTC, worth $845.6 million.

Bitcoin rebounds from its recent low, while previously strong cryptocurrencies have rallied rapidly, with NEAR surging nearly 10%.

After Bitcoin bottomed at $80,000 and rebounded, previously strong altcoins have posted notable gains overnight into this morning. According to HTX market data: NEAR is trading at $5.3281, up 9.9% over 24 hours; ZEC is at $1234.78, up 8.53% over 24 hours; PYTH is at $0.09335, up 10.5% over 24 hours, hitting a new high since last November; INJ is at $8.563, up 11.98% over 24 hours, also hitting a new high since last November.

A whale opened max leveraged long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum 4 hours ago, with positions worth $187 million.

According to Yu Jing Monitoring, a whale address (0x30afce2f6842bf183c7e3fe7162e279ff0b6393e) opened a maximum-leverage long position worth $187 million four hours ago. The position includes 1,822 BTC (valued at $150 million) with an entry price of $82,409 and a liquidation price of $80,634, plus 15,270 ETH (valued at $37.33 million) with an entry price of $2,455 and a liquidation price of $2,406. The whale’s most profitable previous trade netted $14.8 million: it opened a long position in NEAR at $2.14 in late August and took profits at $4.88 in late September.

Bitcoin briefly surpassed $82,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $82,000 mark, with a 0.02% increase in the past 24 hours.

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO): Bitcoin Likely to Benefit Long-Term, Regardless of AI Boom or Its Bubble Burst

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in a client report that Bitcoin is likely to benefit in the long run regardless of whether AI drives an economic boom, an investment bubble bursts, or the economy grows only moderately. In the scenario where the AI bubble bursts and triggers a recession similar to 2008, given AI’s geopolitical significance, he puts the probability of subsequent government bailouts at “nearly 100%”. Bitcoin may first face a sell-off before rallying sharply amid a surge in the money supply. If AI significantly lifts productivity and GDP while cutting costs in sectors like software and legal services, Hougan forecasts that scarce assets such as Bitcoin will appreciate. Should the economy sustain 3% growth, 4% interest rates and a near soft landing, Bitcoin will still be supported by ETF inflows, adoption by financial advisors, and allocations on corporate and sovereign balance sheets. He cautioned that Bitcoin will not rise in a straight line, with some scenarios potentially involving difficult initial phases. Threats including quantum computing, coordinated government crackdowns, or renewed fiscal austerity by Western governments could also undermine his thesis; he considers these scenarios unlikely but not impossible.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $81,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $81,000 level, with a 1.29% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $80,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, recording a 3.48% drop in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see massive outflows: $257.7M BTC and $91.19M ETH in 24 hours

Oct 15 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,209 $BTC(-$257.7M)?? 7D NetFlow: -5,250 $BTC(-$421.57M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -38,915 $ETH(-$91.19M)?? 7D NetFlow: -133,537 $ETH(-$312.9M)??

Analyst: Bitcoin may pull back to test $74,600, medium-term trend remains bullish.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals have not seen material changes: the 5th sub-wave of Wave 1 has ended at the expected level, and a Wave 2 correction may follow. This correction could dip to $74,600, aligning with the standard 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below the 21-period EMA and is trading at the support of the 50-period EMA, which he considers a strong support level; the 200-period EMA stands at around $75,800, still some distance from the current price. The RSI has returned to the neutral 50 level, though the gap with the 14-period SMA has widened. Darkfost opined that this suggests a corrective B-wave rebound may occur before the final C-wave arrives. He added that there are currently no concerning signals, and Bitcoin’s medium-term trend remains positive.

A prominent trader says Bitcoin is testing the support of the 50-day moving average, and is bullish on it rising further from current levels.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit posted that Bitcoin previously bottomed out, rallied sharply after reclaiming its 50-day moving average, and had not retested this level since. It has now retested this support, and he believes the support will hold, with Bitcoin continuing to rise from its current level.

Analysis: Bitcoin faces higher risk of long liquidations on the downside than short squeezes on the upside.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is currently near a support level, but a large cluster of long liquidations lies below. A further price drop could trigger a cascade of liquidations, with another liquidation cluster around the $75,000 mark. In contrast, short liquidation positions have continued to accumulate above the $85,000 level over the past week. For now, the long liquidation zone below is more vulnerable than the short liquidation zone above.

Bitcoin falls below $81,000, driven by higher-than-expected inflation and intensified selling of AI stocks.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly rallied to nearly $84,000 on Wednesday before a sustained pullback, falling to around $80,400 by early Thursday, marking a 2.6% 24-hour drop and approaching last Thursday’s low of roughly $80,430. The U.S. September core inflation rate rose to 2.6%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%, further stoking Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets. Meanwhile, selling pressure on AI stocks intensified, with Nasdaq 100 Index futures down 1.2%. Data disclosed by Anthropic to potential investors shows its third-quarter revenue grew by $16.8 billion, a figure reflecting a slowdown in growth momentum. The crypto market weakened in tandem: ZEC dropped 11% to around $1,100, while ETH fell 5% to roughly $2,370. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $261 million on Wednesday. Analysts noted that if Bitcoin closes below $80,400 on a daily basis, it will lose the key level that buyers have defended twice since last Thursday.

Bitfinex: Long-term Bitcoin holders have an unrealized profit of approximately 64%, while recent buyers only log a 9% unrealized gain.

Bitfinex stated in a report that the average holding cost of long-term Bitcoin holders is approximately $49,300, with an unrealized profit of around 64% at present. The average cost for recent BTC buyers is roughly $74,400, translating to just a 9% unrealized gain. Bitfinex pointed out that if Bitcoin’s price drops further, recent buyers may be the first to face heavier selling pressure, while long-term holders have a larger unrealized profit buffer.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $81,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $81,000 level, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 2.89%.

Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $129.5 million.

According to data from Farside, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $261 million yesterday. Of this total, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net outflow of $110 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted a net outflow of $152.7 million. Additionally, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $129.5 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s ETHA registering a net outflow of $110 million.

Arthur Hayes: If an AI trading crash ultimately triggers a trillion-dollar market rescue, it will be favorable for Bitcoin's bull run.

Arthur Hayes posted on social media that if AI trading eventually crashes, it could trigger a trillion-dollar-scale market bailout, a scenario that would drive up Bitcoin and Ethereum’s prices. “Will AI eventually crash? I don’t know, and I won’t bet on either side. Instead, just trade for that upcoming trillion-dollar-scale market bailout: go long on BTC and ETH.”

Bitcoin falls below $81,000, dropping over 3% in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $81,000, currently trading at $80,742, with a 3.04% drop in the past 24 hours.

Speculative trading cools, Bitcoin nears its near-term low, Nasdaq closes down nearly 2%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen 2.02% in 24 hours, currently trading at $81,480 and approaching the lower edge of its recent trading range. While cryptocurrency analysts have largely turned bullish, Bitcoin remains weighed down by a broader pullback in risk assets. As the largest crypto asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin is trading near $81,700. Due to higher-than-expected inflation data and renewed selling pressure on chipmaker stocks, market interest in speculative trading has cooled, dragging down the crypto market. The Nasdaq 100 index dropped 2%, and the U.S. dollar rose to its highest level since May 2025. After September’s consumer price growth hit a new high since April, traders have further increased bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones fell 0.09%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.88%. Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 4%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) slid 6%, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) dropped 3%, Coreweave (CRWV.O) plunged over 15%, and Dell (DELL.N) fell more than 11%.

Bitcoin falls below $82,000, with a 1.4% drop in the last 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $82,000, with a 1.4% decline in the past 24 hours.

K33: MicroStrategy’s preferred stock financing could lead to it ‘losing’ Bitcoin, with annual dividend obligations rising by roughly $725 million

Research firm K33 notes that while Strategy’s financing via preferred shares (STRC) enabled it to acquire nearly 100,000 Bitcoin in the first half of 2026, ongoing dividend costs could offset those gains. K33 estimates STRC has increased Strategy’s annual dividend obligations by around $725 million, equal to roughly 8,740 BTC at a Bitcoin price of $83,000 per coin. Excluding the approximately $7.5 billion raised via STRC in H1 2026, and reallocating dollar reserves, STRC repurchases, and most dividend spending to Bitcoin purchases instead, Strategy’s holdings would only be about 4,947 BTC higher than in that hypothetical scenario. At the above annualized cost, this gap would be wiped out in roughly seven months. K33 labels the preferred share financing model "a mistake" and favors Strategy raising funds via methods such as common stock ATM offerings.

Bitcoin ETFs see $167.62M inflow, Ethereum ETFs outflow $350.36M in 7 days

Oct 14 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +2,033 $BTC(+$167.62M)?? 7D NetFlow: -7,502 $BTC(-$618.43M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -674 $ETH(-$1.66M)?? 7D NetFlow: -142,133 $ETH(-$350.36M)??

Bitcoin drops below $83,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, with a 0.6% decline in the past 24 hours.

After the release of September's CPI data, the three major U.S. stock index futures plunged and turned negative, Bitcoin fell below $83,000, and spot gold and silver declined.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), after the release of September CPI figures, the three major US stock index futures plunged and turned negative: Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Spot gold dropped nearly 1%, while spot silver fell nearly 2%. Bitcoin declined to break below $83,000.

Strive increases its Bitcoin holdings by another 2,822 coins at an average price of approximately $83,266.

Bitcoin treasury firm Strive filed an 8-K document today disclosing that it added 2,822 Bitcoin to its holdings between October 12 and 13, at an average price of approximately $83,266 per coin. The acquisition cost $235 million, bringing its total Bitcoin position to 35,600 coins.

Data: More than half of Bitcoin's supply remains unaccounted for, with the majority likely held in personal self-custody.

Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn noted in a recent post that despite the growth of institutional and centralized Bitcoin holdings in recent years, more than half of the cryptocurrency’s supply remains in addresses with unknown ownership. He argues that a significant portion, possibly even the majority, of Bitcoin is still held by individuals via self-custody. Per Galaxy Research’s supply attribution map, based on block height 971,382 and an unspent Bitcoin supply of roughly 20.098 million BTC, "unattributed" addresses account for 55.1% (about 11.1 million BTC). Among attributed holdings, exchanges make up 17.9%, ETFs and funds 6.0%, Patoshi (linked to Satoshi Nakamoto’s early mining patterns) 5.6%, followed by custodial institutions, miners, and corporations, among others. Top attributed holders include Coinbase, BlackRock’s IBIT, Binance, Fidelity Custody, and Strategy.

Analysts: Market indices show crypto trading activity has not yet seen a clear recovery, with Bitcoin stuck in a consolidation range awaiting a directional shift.

Crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a social media post that Bitcoin has seen limited price volatility recently. The index tracking market activity— which integrates price volatility, exchange inflow/outflow ratios, and active buy-sell ratios— remains below its one-year average, indicating trading activity has not yet clearly recovered. The index’s 30-day moving average (MA) crossed below its one-year MA on September 12, hitting a low on October 6. It currently stands at 1768 points, lower than the one-year average of 1828 points. The analyst notes that given significant daily fluctuations, the 30-day MA is more meaningful for reference. As long as this indicator stays below its one-year MA, the market will remain in a low-activity state, aligning with Bitcoin’s recent narrow-range consolidation. If the index climbs back above its one-year MA, it could signal a resumption of trading activity; whether Bitcoin’s price breaks out of the Bollinger Bands will confirm the subsequent trend. Between October 6 and 13, the Bollinger Band width narrowed from 11.6% of the average price to 4.9%. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell from $85,800 to $83,200, with little movement in recent days. The current upper Bollinger Band is at $86,000, while the lower band is approximately $81,900. The analyst argues that a sustained price hold above $86,000 will send an upward signal, while a break below and sustained stay under $81,900 could confirm a downward trend.

Strive has made large-scale purchases of 11,417 Bitcoin over the past two months, at an average price of $82,281.

Per Lookonchain data, Strive (@Strive) bought 3,311 BTC (worth $276 million) here last week at $84,500 per BTC. In under two months, Strive has accumulated 11,417 BTC (about $952 million), at an average price of $82,281.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $175.7 million, while Ethereum ETFs registered a net inflow of $24.8 million.

According to Farside Investors’ monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $175.7 million yesterday. Of that total, IBIT recorded a net inflow of $65.9 million, while FBTC posted a net inflow of $103.1 million. Ethereum ETFs logged a net inflow of $24.8 million, with FETH bringing in $8.1 million and Grayscale’s Ethereum product seeing a net inflow of $16.7 million.

A trader is bucking the trend to double down on their forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall to $70,000 by year-end, holding a $2.25 million short position.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, against the backdrop of widespread market expectations that the Fed will pause interest rate hikes in October, cross-market trader greater-fools is still increasing its bearish bets on Bitcoin (BTC). The account has cumulatively invested around $4,381 since yesterday, adding two new bearish BTC predictions in the prediction market: - "BTC will fall to $65,000 by the end of the year" (Yes): Added around 11,000 contracts, invested about $2,639; current total position stands at roughly 136,100 contracts, with an implied probability of around 22.5% and a position value of approximately $30,600. - "BTC will fall to $70,000 by the end of the year" (Yes): Added 4,510 contracts, invested about $1,742; current total position is around 55,800 contracts, with an implied probability of roughly 35.5% and a position value of about $19,800. Meanwhile, the account still holds 26.97 BTC short positions on Hyperliquid, with a notional value of around $2.2528 million, an average entry price of roughly $69,962, and is currently facing an unrealized loss of approximately $365,200. After the release of U.S. September CPI data tonight, if inflation comes in higher than expected and prompts the market to reprice the monetary tightening path, this could become a short-term pressure factor for BTC.

A prominent trader notes that Bitcoin has significant buying interest at the $81,000 level, and it still has the potential to rally back to $87,000 this month.

Prominent trader Killa stated in a post that Bitcoin has seen significant buying interest in the $81,000 range, triggering two rounds of stabilization after its decline. As a result, after a full correction, Bitcoin could still rally to $87,000 this month. Killa, a quantitative trader specializing in BTC, previously predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and shifted to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's trend awaits CPI data to determine direction, with the $81,000 lower support level likely to be tested first.

Bitcoin has pulled back from around $86,000 since early October, trading in a range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields stay at high levels. Against this backdrop, Cloud, chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes the range is more likely to break downward. The September ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, while the University of Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectation for October rebounded to 4.7%. The concurrent rise in price sub-indexes and inflation expectations signals a high probability that this Thursday’s CPI will exceed market expectations. If that materializes, bets on a year-end interest rate hike will strengthen further, and the $81,000 lower bound will be tested first. Only if CPI comes in below expectations will a breakout above the $84,000 upper bound be sustainable. Recent sustained declines in chip stocks mainly stem from a repricing of AI capital expenditure timelines and hardware profit expectations within the sector, an industry-specific alpha event. In contrast, Bitcoin’s pullback has been far smaller, indicating its current pricing anchor leans more toward macro liquidity, with its connection to AI narratives weakening—their respective drivers are diverging. However, this divergence is temporary; once the U.S. dollar and long-term rates regain pricing dominance, their correlation will strengthen rapidly, with Thursday evening’s CPI release serving as the latest test window. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

A crypto whale purchased 1,162 Bitcoin via Wintermute, valued at $96.77 million.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a crypto whale purchased 1,162 BTC worth $96.77 million via Wintermute. Over the past 12 hours, five newly created wallets received this asset from Wintermute.

Progress of Qian Zhimin's 40-billion-yuan illegal fundraising case: Prosecutors have applied to confiscate over 61,800 Bitcoin and other assets, and the court has accepted the application.

According to reports from The Paper, the Qian Zhimin case — involving over 40 billion yuan in illegal fundraising and more than 60,000 Bitcoin — has seen new progress in China’s judicial process. On October 13, the Tianjin No.2 Intermediate People’s Court announced that it had accepted on September 28 the application by the Second Branch of the Tianjin Municipal People’s Procuratorate to confiscate illegal gains from suspect Qian Zhimin. Per the court’s released property confiscation list, in addition to Bitcoin, the virtual currencies involved include 72,745.79502 Bitcoin Cash, 72,745.78555 Bitcoin Gold, 72,745.7845 Bitcoin Satoshi Vision, 3,605,989.9995 Ripple, and 70,081,208.62553222 Dogecoin (converted by UK authorities and deposited in an interest-bearing account). Other properties targeted for confiscation include US dollar, euro, and British pound cash, jewelry, bank balances, investment portfolios, and more. The Second Branch of the Tianjin Municipal People’s Procuratorate stated that Qian Zhimin is suspected of illegal fundraising fraud, was placed on a wanted list after fleeing, and has failed to appear in court for over a year. Evidence confirms that more than 61,800 Bitcoin and other assets seized in the UK are illegal gains and their proceeds. The procuratorate requests that these illegal gains, as well as their converted, transformed, and derived properties and proceeds, be recovered and confiscated, with the exception of those legally returned to defrauded fundraising participants.

Michael Saylor says a new bull market has started, and predicts Bitcoin will return above $100,000.

Strategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor stated in an interview that Bitcoin has bottomed out and rebounded, and is projected to retake the $100,000 mark. He noted Bitcoin previously hit a low just below $60,000, has now climbed back to the $80,000 range, and is on track for further gains. Saylor attributed the market’s momentum to an improved regulatory landscape and accelerating Bitcoin adoption by banks, which are driving a new bull run. He forecast Bitcoin’s long-term annual return will reach 20% to 30% over the next several years, adding that Strategy may increase its Bitcoin purchases during the bull market and issue more securities to fund these acquisitions. Separately, on MSCI’s consideration of adjusting index rules that could exclude companies whose primary business is asset accumulation from global stock indices, Saylor expressed opposition, warning the move could set an unfavorable precedent for the digital asset sector. MSCI is scheduled to announce its decision this Friday. Last November, JPMorgan estimated that Strategy could face up to $2.8 billion in capital outflows if it were excluded from the indices.

Metaplanet plans to issue 52 billion Japanese yen in zero-coupon convertible bonds, with part of the funds used to repay credit loans and unlock pledged Bitcoin.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich announced in a post that the company will issue zero-coupon yen-denominated convertible bonds totaling 52 billion yen, maturing in 2031, while simultaneously advancing its share repurchase program. Of the proceeds from the bond issuance, up to 28.3 billion yen will be allocated to share buybacks: up to 25.3 billion yen will be used for over-the-counter (OTC) block trades covering up to 96,934,800 shares, or roughly 7.1% of the company’s outstanding issued shares; the remaining amount will be acquired via open market purchases. Separately, the company will use approximately 23.6 billion yen to partially repay its credit line, unlocking the Bitcoin currently held as collateral for the facility. Gerovich explained that Metaplanet’s current share price trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, so the repurchase is designed to create shareholder value by leveraging this discount. The convertible bonds’ initial conversion price is set above both the bond’s issuance price and 1.0 times its market net asset value (mNAV). Though the issuance will increase the company’s total debt, Metaplanet intends to replace some secured, interest-bearing loans with unsecured debt that carries no periodic interest payments. This move is expected to lower interest costs, extend debt tenors, and boost financial flexibility for future Bitcoin acquisitions.