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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 9185 updates and counting.

2026.09.23 15:09

Analysis: Bitcoin’s price has diverged from its demand, with ETF inflows and coin hoarding via transfers out of trading platforms acting as short-term support.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that while Bitcoin’s price is rising, sustained buying pressure has yet to reestablish, leaving mixed market signals. As of the 30th, cumulative spot demand stood at -180,000 BTC, remaining negative; futures demand was +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly down. Total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still in negative territory overall. A recent divergence has emerged between price and total demand: Bitcoin’s price is up, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating the rally is driven more by easing selling pressure than strong buying. Breaking down by segment, demand recovery is uneven. For institutional players, while geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable, the volume-weighted Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, signaling U.S. spot prices occasionally trade at a premium to other markets, with institutional selling pressure easing notably. ETFs have been the biggest change in this cycle: demand has flipped completely compared to this summer, with recent net purchases of roughly 70,000 BTC. Cumulative inflows for 2026 still stand at around -17,000 BTC, but are close to turning positive. For trading platforms, net outflows dominated throughout September, a trend pointing to accumulation rather than distribution—Bitcoin leaving exchanges typically translates to lower near-term selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost concludes that the current price rally is not driven by stronger buying, but rather by investors refraining from adding more selling pressure at higher price levels, leaving the market structure still fragile.

2026.09.23 12:23

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin’s rebound has seen spot buying stepping in, with its sustainability hinging on ETF inflows and leverage levels.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud noted that Bitcoin bottomed out amid dual pressures of interest rate hikes and stalled legislative clarity, then rebounded rapidly, gaining roughly 16% in a week. On September 21, its intraday price rose to $87,307 (Huobi HTX spot price), marking a new high since January. This rally was driven by three factors: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of about $1 billion on September 21, the largest such daily inflow this year; short positions worth around $650 million were liquidated within 24 hours; and falling oil prices cooled inflation expectations. Unlike last week’s rebound dominated by passive covering, this week saw spot buying take the lead. Whether the rally can sustain depends on two points: whether ETF inflows can shift from a one-day pulse to a continuous trend, and whether leverage can remain at a non-overheated level. Currently, the funding rate is around 0.01%, sitting in the neutral range, but Bitcoin’s derivatives open interest has rebounded to over $61 billion. If market sentiment weakens, high leverage will amplify drawdowns. Market sentiment has entered the extreme greed zone, a historical precursor to short-term trend reversals. On the technical front, $87,500 is the immediate resistance level, while the first support zone ranges from $84,000 to $85,000. The trend has conditions to continue, but the phase of peak sentiment also brings the highest short-term volatility risk. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

2026.09.23 08:34

CryptoQuant Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Rise 3 to 5 Times in This Bull Run, With Extreme Volatility to Ease

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated in a post that he expects Bitcoin’s current bull run to surge 3 to 5 times, rather than another parabolic rally of over 10x, followed by a more moderate bear market. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization expands and institutional holdings rise, the extreme rallies once dominated by retail investors and hot money, along with 80%+ crashes, are being suppressed. Factors limiting upside are also mitigating downside risks. The PNL index shows that the extremes of Bitcoin’s cycle tops and bottoms are decreasing, while overall position profitability during bottom formation continues to rise. In this cycle, the MVRV ratio never fell below 1; even at market lows, Bitcoin’s price remained above holders’ average on-chain cost basis. Moreover, realized market capitalization keeps climbing, signaling new capital inflows. Early whales have ceased selling, and futures market whales have built substantial long positions near the bottom. The 365-day moving average of the PNL index is also forming a clear inflection point. This does not mean Bitcoin has an upside cap, but rather that the market’s risk-reward structure is evolving. Giving up a 10x+ parabolic rally also means avoiding an 80% extreme drop—this lower volatility could attract more long-term-focused capital instead of short-term hot money. He added that Bitcoin’s development path may gradually approach Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision: becoming a stable enough asset to truly function as a currency. As Bitcoin matures further, internet-native capital could reshape the global economy in ways exceeding expectations.

2026.09.22 05:56

Analysis: Bitcoin could test $90,000 after a short squeeze, but leverage risks are on the rise.

Bitcoin surged past the key resistance level of $82,000 to hit a high of $87,300, triggering liquidations of around $750 million in bearish crypto derivative positions, with buying pressure from short covering further fueling the price rally. Since the breakout, Bitcoin’s derivative open interest has added roughly $2 billion, indicating a rapid return of market leverage. Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted that “prices are turning bullish faster than position adjustments.” U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had faced headwinds from the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve rate hikes, saw a combined outflow of $746 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by inflows of $160 million and $433 million on Thursday and Friday respectively. The average cost basis for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders is around $82,200; with Bitcoin breaking above this level, ETF investors as a whole have returned to profitability. Looking ahead, Sondergaard identifies $87,000 as the next key level, with $90,000 and $92,000 as subsequent targets; Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere also believes Bitcoin could test $90,000. However, he pointed out that breaking above the 50-week moving average is merely a positive signal, and significant volatility could still occur in the short term. The market is now closely watching whether spot and ETF inflows can sustain the rally. Sondergaard warned that if spot demand fails to keep pace with the growth in derivative leverage, the rally could become leverage-driven and reverse rapidly amid rising U.S. Treasury yields or geopolitical shocks. Wintermute advised focusing on ETF flows, perpetual contract open interest and funding rates in the coming days, as well as the options expiration this Friday.

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