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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 9185 updates and counting.

2026.09.20 21:30

Renowned trader: Bitcoin has successively digested interest rate hikes and the setback of the 'CLARITY Act', and the market trend may have shifted.

Renowned trader Killa said the "everything is priced in" chart tracks major catalysts across Bitcoin’s cycles and their post-event price behavior. He noted that during bear markets, negative news typically pushes BTC lower, leading traders to develop an inertia of shorting on any bearish headlines. But once high-timeframe trends shift, the same news may only spark temporary panic, after which Bitcoin absorbs selling pressure and resumes its rally. Recent market events include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, expectations around the CLARITY Act vote, and the bill’s failure to advance. Markets initially viewed these as reasons for Bitcoin to drop further, but BTC only briefly broke below its range low before bouncing back quickly, showing strong resilience. Even as narratives of a "third world war" gained traction, Bitcoin began reacting relatively positively to panic-inducing factors. Killa highlighted this performance as a key distinction between bull and bear markets: in bear markets, bad news drives prices down, while in bull markets, negative headlines may trigger trader capitulation, after which prices continue rising. He added that the key catalyst that confirmed the last cycle’s uptrend was the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and this cycle’s equivalent catalyst could be the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin’s recent ability to digest multiple bearish factors is a key basis for his judgment that the trend has shifted.

2026.09.19 10:13

Opinion: Bitcoin Could Rise to $1 Million If Quantum Computing Risks Are Addressed

Star investor Kevin O’Leary has stated that Bitcoin could eventually surge to $1 million if the crypto industry resolves security risks posed by quantum computing. In an interview with The Rollup, O’Leary pointed out that quantum computers may crack Bitcoin’s underlying encryption algorithms and digital signatures in the future—a risk that must be addressed, otherwise institutional investors may still view Bitcoin as a non-core asset. He noted that resolving market concerns over "Q-Day" is one of the prerequisites for Bitcoin to hit $1 million. O’Leary has also reversed his earlier bullish stance on Bitcoin and Ethereum. He previously believed that the two would capture most of the crypto industry’s market volatility, but now he no longer considers Ethereum to be the industry’s ultimate standard, citing its insufficient speed and security. Currently, he is betting that different sectors will eventually adopt distinct blockchains as infrastructure for asset tokenization. In the AI field, O’Leary is investing in power infrastructure supporting AI rather than specific AI models. He explained that AI development is inseparable from power, and he has already invested in power projects and uranium assets, wagering on small modular nuclear reactors to power U.S. data centers in the future. O’Leary also predicted that the Clarity Act will struggle to advance before the U.S. midterm elections, and Congress may reintroduce a bipartisan crypto market regulatory bill after the midterms.

2026.09.18 14:53

Willy Woo: Bitcoin’s Fisher Transform golden cross points to a bottom, marking the 4th bottom signal in history.

Renowned crypto analyst Willy Woo analyzed Bitcoin’s (BTC) monthly chart using the Fisher Transform indicator, noting that the current golden cross on the metric marks the 4th bottom signal in history, with no false breakouts in the prior three instances. However, Woo emphasized this is not an immediate reversal buy signal; prices may first consolidate sideways before moving in their original trend. He added that during bull markets, the Fisher Transform has previously triggered a bearish death cross followed by a bullish golden cross, with the uptrend still intact afterward. Woo distinguishes between market tops and bottoms: At tops, long-term investor buying dries up, while speculative buying continues to push prices higher. The rally relies on momentum rather than sustained long-term holding support, leading to frequent false turning points. As such, Woo’s strategy is to reduce positions gradually instead of predicting exact peak levels. At bottoms, price drops create a buying vacuum as speculative investors exit. When prices fall to levels long-term investors deem valuable, buying resumes. With speculative activity limited, reversals are cleaner, making many technical indicators more reliable at bottoms than at tops. The Fisher Transform is a technical indicator developed by U.S. quantitative researcher John Ehlers in 2002. It first compresses prices and applies a mathematical transformation similar to normalization to make price distributions closer to a bell curve. This causes the indicator to spike or drop sharply near extremes, with more distinct turning points. Traders typically use golden crosses/death crosses of the indicator’s two lines to identify potential turning points, though the Fisher Transform signals a possible shift in price rhythm rather than an immediate reversal.

2026.09.18 14:31

VanEck: Bitcoin Could Rise to $100,000 Next Year, Supported by Fiscal Concerns

VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel told CNBC in an interview that Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 next year, as concerns over government debt and fiscal sustainability underpin its price. Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared to four years ago, a clear indicator that this cycle differs significantly from the previous one. Widespread over-indebtedness among global governments has helped Bitcoin maintain its resilience, he added. Sigel also noted that put options are trading at a substantial premium to call options, and the U.S. Treasury’s repurchase (repo) program has triggered a large wave of short covering, making the current time window favorable for Bitcoin bulls. Policymakers are unlikely to resolve unsustainable fiscal conditions, and further easing of market liquidity would provide an even stronger boost to Bitcoin. Discussions between VanEck and institutional clients including investment advisors and sovereign wealth funds show that these entities are all buying Bitcoin. VanEck also forecasts that the stablecoin market will continue to grow. While stablecoin regulation has been enacted into law via the GENIUS Act, banking lobby groups are still attempting to renegotiate the relevant arrangements. Earlier, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, which aimed to establish a regulatory and market structure framework for crypto assets.

2026.09.13 17:34

Analysis: The majority of investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) in the past 3 to 6 months are reluctant to take profits at present, and have shifted to medium- to long-term trading.

Analyst Murphy says on-chain data can clearly reveal the trading sentiment of representative investors in the current phase. First, the group that bought BTC in the past 3–6 months has seen very little profit. In other words, most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at current levels. These are the STHs (Short-Term Holders) closest to LTHs (Long-Term Holders). Traders not selling now are likely targeting medium- to long-term positions. Additionally, the group that bought BTC in the past 6–12 months has suffered significant losses, almost covering all tokens accumulated during the entire bear market. Many LTHs in this group are not genuine believers; they only became long-term holders passively after incurring unrealized losses. Thus, they are the most volatile group during every major dip or rally. From a macro cycle perspective, BTC will not fully enter its next phase until this selling pressure is gradually exhausted. Recently, Murphy published an article discussing why Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $82,000 level. First, STHs’ (Short-Term Holders) tokens are concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000. A break above $82,000 would trigger profit-taking from some short-term speculative capital, creating the first layer of selling pressure. Second, the most concentrated price range for LTHs’ (Long-Term Holders) tokens is exactly between $81,000 and $82,000. LTHs tend to exit when prices approach their break-even point, forming the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst notes that breaking through $82,000 is indeed a short-term resistance, as the market needs time to resolve divergences and absorb supply. Once the market regains momentum and successfully breaks through, the path ahead will be clear.

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