Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $63,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000, now trading at $63,010, with a 3.93% drop over the past 24 hours.

Analyst: The proportion of Bitcoin long-term holders transferring their holdings to trading platforms is approaching its historical peak.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a recent post that the volume of Bitcoin (BTC) holdings transferred by long-term holders to trading platforms has recently hit a high. Currently, long-term holders make up 5.1% of total Bitcoin inflows to these platforms — a figure near an all-time high, with only 2020 recording a higher rate, around 5.5%. This shift came after Bitcoin’s sharp price drop. As the metric relies on 90-day moving average data, it carries a degree of lag, meaning changes won’t immediately reflect the latest market developments. While the trend is likely to gradually stabilize going forward, current data shows long-term holders have clearly stepped up their trading activity recently.

Can MicroStrategy (STRC) resume Bitcoin purchases? STRC falls again in US pre-market trading

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. pre-market trading for Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock (ticker: STRC) stands at $88.1, down 0.26%, after closing 1.65% higher yesterday. Separately, Strategy has not added to its Bitcoin holdings for the fifth consecutive week. Yesterday, Strategy founder Michael Saylor emphasized that the company will not issue new STRC shares when its price is below $100. The firm has repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC preferred stock for a total of roughly $25 million, at an average repurchase price of $86.52 per share. Strategy plans to continue acting as a "regular and disciplined buyer": it will maintain repurchases of STRC when the price is below $100, increase buying volume when the price is far from $100, and scale back repurchases when the price approaches $100. Currently, Strategy still has approximately $975 million available for preferred stock repurchases. Funds for STRC repurchases will not be drawn from U.S. dollar reserves; instead, they will be raised via methods including selling MSTR stock and Bitcoin, depending on market conditions, with the goal of stabilizing STRC’s price around $100.

Bitcoin spot trading volume hits its lowest level since the end of the 2023 bear market, plunging more than 75% from its end-of-2024 peak.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released data showing that Bitcoin spot trading volume continued its long-term contraction trend in July this year. Spot trading volumes on major exchanges have overall dropped by more than 75% from their end-of-2024 peak. Binance alone recorded over $35 billion in monthly volume, but this is still a sharp decline compared to the $246 billion in November 2024. Trading volumes across all platforms contracted simultaneously during the same period. The last time such low trading volume levels were seen dates back to the end of the 2023 bear market. The analyst attributes the weak demand for risk assets to multiple macroeconomic pressures: the ongoing escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has suppressed risk appetite, while high inflation has left persistent concerns about elevated interest rates—an environment extremely unfavorable for speculative assets. Meanwhile, the stock market has continued to absorb most available liquidity, with the tech sector’s strong performance driving this liquidity siphon effect, though this narrative began to be questioned in July. For Bitcoin to return to an uptrend, a shift in the macro environment is needed, and more importantly, a recovery in demand, which is the only true driver of a rebound in trading volume.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $11.6 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $11.7 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $11.6 million yesterday. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net outflow of $8.8 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted a $2.8 million net outflow; all other Bitcoin ETFs had zero net flows for the day. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, saw a total net inflow of $11.7 million yesterday. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for the full $11.7 million daily net inflow, with all other Ethereum ETFs registering zero net flows for the day.

Bitcoin pullback hits crypto treasury firms: TD Cowen slashes Nakamoto’s target price by 58% while retaining a Buy rating.

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has cut the price target for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), slashing the post-stock-split adjusted target from $40 to $17—a 58% reduction—while retaining its "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts said the adjustment is mainly driven by pressure from Bitcoin price declines on Nakamoto’s highly leveraged capital structure. While the new target still implies around 275% upside from the current share price of $4.65, the stock is highly sensitive to Bitcoin price swings. TD Cowen forecasts Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, roughly 25% below its all-time high of $126,000 set last October. The firm also expects Nakamoto to pause further Bitcoin purchases before 2027. Analysts noted that Nakamoto’s core value still stems from its Bitcoin holdings: the company currently holds 4,467 BTC worth approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among public companies globally in Bitcoin holdings. However, its debt and preferred stock financing structure has eroded the asset value available to common shareholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying roughly $45 million in debt, extending the maturity of $105 million in principal to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million share repurchase program. Additionally, the company has shut down its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and advisory services going forward. Data shows NAKA’s share price has fallen more than 71% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has dropped around 26% over the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuous BTC purchases" to the balance sheet structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a 3-month high, with Ethereum rebounding in performance relative to Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC trading pair has recently risen to a nearly three-month high, signaling Ethereum’s improving performance relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC exchange rate gauges Ethereum’s strength against Bitcoin, not its U.S. dollar-denominated performance. Data shows ETH/BTC fell by roughly 80% cumulatively between 2021 and 2025, staying in a long-term weak position. As ETH/BTC rebounds recently, the market is starting to focus on whether Ethereum is entering a recovery trend relative to Bitcoin. Analysts point out that the rise in ETH/BTC usually reflects higher investor risk appetite and improved market outlooks for Ethereum’s ecosystem, application demand, and future growth prospects.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see $329.91M daily outflows, turn positive weekly

July 27 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,824 $BTC(-$246.68M)?? 7D NetFlow: +253 $BTC(+$16.65M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -43,284 $ETH(-$83.23M)?? 7D NetFlow: +46,190 $ETH(+$88.82M)??

Yi Lihua: Bitcoin's resistance level is around $67,500, and he insists on gradually accumulating positions in July and August.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yilihua stated, "Bitcoin’s resistance level remains around $67,500; only a strong breakout will kick off a sustained rally. I maintain my earlier view that investors should gradually accumulate positions in July and August to wait for the next bull market cycle. It is not meaningful to analyze market trends during range-bound periods or calculate entry prices in bottom ranges. For AI U.S. stocks, our research report covers computing power firm AGPU, which announced a new $1.5 billion contract overnight, bringing its total contracts to over $3 billion. The firm is on track to hit $10 billion in total contracts this year. Notably, AGPU’s financing method is not at-the-money (ATM) equity, which safeguards investors’ interests. These contracts will soon be reflected in its upcoming financial reports."

Strategy’s unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings narrowed to $8.85 billion, and its U.S. dollar reserves are sufficient to cover 25 months of interest expenses.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy now holds a total of 843,775 BTC, valued at $54.63 billion, with an average cost of $75,476 per BTC, resulting in an unrealized loss of $8.85 billion (-13.9%). Strategy did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week, and its U.S. dollar reserves rose to $3.75 billion, enough to cover 25 months of interest expenses. Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine purchased 9,946 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,897 last week, totaling $18.87 million. It now holds a total of 5,787,414 ETH, worth $11.274 billion, with an average cost of $3,373 per ETH, leading to an unrealized loss of $8.247 billion (-42.2%).

MicroStrategy has not increased its Bitcoin holdings for three consecutive weeks, and its US dollar reserves have risen by $1.2 billion.

Following MicroStrategy's official sale of 3,588 BTC on July 6 to pay dividends on its digital credit securities, the firm has not added to its Bitcoin holdings for three consecutive weeks. However, over the same period, its U.S. dollar reserves have increased by $1.2 billion via activities including the sale of MSTR stock, bringing the company's current U.S. dollar reserves to $3.75 billion.

MicroStrategy did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week, and its U.S. dollar reserves rose to $3.75 billion.

Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin holdings last week, with its U.S. dollar reserves rising to $3.75 billion, an increase of $525 million.

Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, with institutional demand recovering but remaining cautious.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of gains since early May. However, the inflow pace slowed significantly due to outflows ahead of the weekend. In the week ending July 24, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $33.79 million. The prior two weeks posted inflows of $197 million and $75.67 million respectively. Data shows that on July 23 and 24, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $225.2 million and $240.1 million respectively, ending a seven-day consecutive inflow streak. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the bulk of these outflows, with roughly $415 million exiting the product. Market analysts note that institutional funds are returning to Bitcoin ETFs, though demand remains weaker than during bull market periods. Crypto data firm BRN stated that after massive outflows in May and June, the market entered a recovery phase in July, but institutional investors remain cautious. On the price front, Bitcoin briefly rose above the July high of $66,500 on Tuesday, then pulled back as investors took profits and U.S. tech stocks weakened, falling below $64,000 by the weekend. The Nasdaq 100, weighed down by falling chip stocks, further pressured risk asset performance.

U.S. national debt approaches $40 trillion, with investors turning to Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets, betting on the U.S. dollar’s depreciation.

As U.S. government debt continues to surge, investors are refocusing on scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold as hedges against the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. Data from the U.S. Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny” shows that as of last Friday, U.S. federal debt has hit a record $39.7 trillion. Market observers point out that U.S. government debt is currently increasing by around $70 billion daily, an incremental volume that exceeds most crypto assets when calculated by market capitalization. The founder of LondonCryptoClub stated that the pace of U.S. debt growth is driving so-called “currency devaluation trades,” in which investors buy assets with limited supplies—such as gold and Bitcoin—to hedge against long-term fiat currency depreciation risks. The firm argues that in an environment of “fiscal dominance,” Federal Reserve policy may be influenced by the government’s financing needs, requiring interest rates to stay low and continuous liquidity provision to support debt refinancing. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok previously warned that U.S. debt as a share of GDP has exceeded 120%, leaving limited fiscal stimulus room in the event of a future economic recession. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will struggle to cut interest rates sharply as it did in the past, as such moves could exacerbate inflation and push down Treasury yields, hampering government financing. Currently, Bitcoin’s price holds above $65,000, supported by easing U.S.-Iran tensions and falling oil prices, which have lifted market risk appetite. Meanwhile, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin recently, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, leading market participants to believe that altcoin momentum may be building. However, analysts note that since its launch in 2010, Bitcoin’s price movements have resembled those of tech stocks more than traditional safe-haven assets, leaving its safe-haven status a subject of debate.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score falls to a multi-year low, with the market entering an undervalued territory but not yet completing bottoming out.

Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in a post that Bitcoin’s valuation metric, the MVRV Z-Score, has dropped to a multi-year low but remains above negative territory, signaling the market is undervalued rather than in the full capitulation phase typical of a cycle bottom. Data shows BTC’s MVRV Z-Score is currently around 0.42, far below its historical average of 1.7, and has hovered near zero for 30 consecutive days. Since the end of 2025, the metric has trended downward, hitting a phase low of roughly 0.185 on June 30, but has not entered negative territory which would indicate widespread selling. Meanwhile, BTC’s 7-day realized profit/loss metric has turned positive, standing at approximately +$239 million. For most of the prior month, this metric was negative: losses hit $8.5 billion in June, and a weekly loss of around $3 billion was recorded in mid-July. The rebound in realized profit/loss shows selling pressure is easing, but the MVRV Z-Score has yet to break below zero to trigger capitulation selling, meaning the market is currently closer to an “undervalued + stabilizing” phase rather than a confirmed cycle bottom. If the MVRV Z-Score later rebounds toward its historical average of 1.7 and realized profit/loss stays positive, this could signal a market upturn; conversely, a drop below the June low of 0.185 and entry into negative territory would likely indicate a new round of pressure release.

A Bitcoin-focused whale opened a $3.53 million short position in CXMT, marking its first cross-asset position move.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, whale address 0x004e—who had traded only Bitcoin (BTC) for over three months—has for the first time stepped outside the crypto space to target Changxin Technology (CXMT). The whale began building CXMT short positions in batches at noon; as of press time, it holds 500,000 CXMT short contracts with 2x isolated margin, with a position value of roughly $3.533 million and an average entry price of $7.47. As CXMT has fallen to $7.0669, the short position has generated an unrealized profit of about $204,900, a return of ~10.96%; its liquidation price stands at $13.58, and the address has allocated ~$3.599 million in margin to the isolated position, with no outstanding pending orders currently. Data shows CXMT is trading at $7.06 on Hyperliquid, with a 24-hour gain of 15.7%; converted at a USD/CNY exchange rate of 6.7939, this equals approximately 48.01 yuan. Historical trading records show the whale traded only BTC over the past three months, marking its first recent entry into stock futures. It still holds a 40x leveraged BTC short position worth $6.6 million.

Tensions between the US and Iran ease, TACO’s prediction holds true once again, oil prices fall while equities rise, Bitcoin accelerates its rebound, and markets await Changxin’s listing.

Overnight to this morning, tensions between the US and Iran have continued to ease. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that information exchanges between Iran and the US remain ongoing, and mediators are continuing their related efforts. All of this is based on Trump's suspension of strikes against Iran. It can be said that against the backdrop of rising US Treasury yields and oil prices, TACO has come true again. Affected by this, international oil prices opened lower. As of press time, according to Bitget's market data, WTI crude oil is trading at $83.608, down 6.26% in 24 hours. Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher on Monday, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.76%. The 10-year US Treasury yield also fell, now at 4.632%, down 1% in a single day. Separately, according to HTX's market data, Bitcoin started an accelerated rebound this morning, now trading at $65,416.76, up 1% in 24 hours. In addition, Changxin Technology listed on China's STAR Market today. As of press time, the stock's contract on tradexyz is trading at $6.5424.

Michael Saylor once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, possibly indicating he has not increased his Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy’s founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor has once again released updates related to its Bitcoin Tracker, captioned “We need another color.” Per its established pattern, Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements are made.

Prominent Trader: Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders in loss has exceeded levels recorded during the FTX collapse

Renowned trader Killa posted that roughly 80% of cycle top indicators never triggered during the last Bitcoin bull run, and a similar situation could occur with bottom indicators in the future, meaning market bottoms cannot be judged by mechanically relying on historical signals. He noted that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded levels seen during the FTX collapse and is approaching those of the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $50,000; in every past cycle, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so a return to this region remains possible. However, Killa said it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will definitely drop back to this level. Many top indicators failed to trigger in the last cycle, and some bottom indicators may also become invalid in the future. Regardless, the current level of market loss is already comparable to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.

PlanB speaks out against Bitcoin BIP-110: Fork supporters fail to grasp the essence of decentralization.

Renowned analyst PlanB has voiced opposition to Bitcoin’s BIP-110 proposal: “I oppose the BIP-110 fork. In my view, supporters of the fork fail to grasp three key points: Bitcoin is a decentralized bearer asset; Bitcoin enthusiasts hate spam more than they do; and why the previous BCH fork failed.” BIP-110 is a temporary soft fork proposal that would add seven consensus limits over its roughly one-year validity period, including restrictions on new script public key lengths, the size of certain push data and witness items, and disabling some Taproot extension paths. The proposal aims to drastically reduce arbitrary non-payment data (such as inscriptions and runes) embedded in transactions, thereby lowering node burdens, curbing spam, and refocusing Bitcoin on its monetary use case. Currently, BIP-110 only has around 1% miner support, far below the 55% threshold required for adoption. Its prospects are dim, making it nearly impossible to become an official rule on Bitcoin’s main chain. The final outcome will be revealed after the mandatory signaling window opens around August 7-8.

A whale holding a 40x leveraged long Bitcoin position worth nearly $40 million was stopped out after just 18 hours.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a whale that opened a 40x leveraged long BTC position worth $38.67 million starting last night cut its losses after holding the position for just 18 hours, suffering a single loss of $368,000. The whale’s entry price was $64,469, with a stop-loss set at $63,859, triggering an immediate stop-loss after BTC dropped by just 1%.

A prominent trader says Bitcoin’s cycle is accelerating, and firmly believes this cycle will still hit a new high before the halving.

Renowned trader Killa (@KillaXBT) stated in a post that Bitcoin’s cycle is accelerating. The previous cycle took just 476 days to rise from its bottom to a new all-time high (ATH), far faster than the two prior cycles. He forecasts this cycle will also hit a new high ahead of the next halving. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, accurately predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 before switching to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Bitcoin plummeted sharply, with $117 million in liquidations across the network in the past hour; Maji once again quickly closed out long positions.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin plummeted after 8 PM tonight, briefly falling below $64,000 and currently trading at $64,157.87. As a result, $117 million in liquidations were recorded across the network in the past hour, with $114 million stemming from long positions. Separately, HyperInsight monitoring shows that trader "Ma Ji" urgently closed long positions during the market decline to avoid liquidation. As of press time, he still holds 3,100 ETH in 25x long positions, with a liquidation price of $1,841, which remains 1% away from the current market price.

Is the 'Binance Buy Wall' Well-Founded? Bitcoin Slips Below $64,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000, currently trading at $63,981.00, with a 24-hour decline of 1.51%. Earlier, prominent trader Killa (@KillaXBT) noted, “Binance’s plunge protection team is back. Typically, when large buy orders start lining up just below the price, market makers and algorithms tend to temporarily front-run them.” His screenshot shows multiple horizontal lines appearing below Bitcoin’s current price starting around $62,000, with the densest and most prominent buy wall located near and below $58,000. A similar scenario occurred during the market-wide crash night on June 6.

Bitcoin ETFs outflow $225M today but gain $389.93M weekly; Ethereum up $184.78M

July 24 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,507 $BTC(-$225.56M)?? 7D NetFlow: +6,063 $BTC(+$389.93M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +12,522 $ETH(+$23.32M)?? 7D NetFlow: +99,239 $ETH(+$184.78M)??

Bitcoin plunged sharply in nearly 10 minutes ahead of the US stock market’s opening, dropping over 0.6%.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin plunged sharply ahead of the US stock market open, falling more than 0.6% in nearly 10 minutes after 9 PM, and is currently trading at $64,395.54. Earlier, prominent trader Killa (@KillaXBT) noted, “Binance’s crash protection team is back. Typically, when large bid orders start clustering just below the price level, market makers and algorithms tend to temporarily front-run them.” His screenshot shows multiple horizontal lines forming below Bitcoin’s current price starting around $62,000, with the densest and most obvious buy wall appearing near and below $58,000. A similar scenario occurred during the market-wide crash night on June 6.

Well-known trader: Bitcoin’s 'protective' buy wall reappears on Binance

Well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted screenshots describing the situation as "textbook-like". Binance’s plunge protection team is back. Typically, when large bid orders start clustering just below the price, market makers and algorithms tend to temporarily front-run them. The screenshots show multiple horizontal lines appearing below Bitcoin’s current price starting around $62,000, with the densest, most prominent buy orders forming from roughly $58,000 downwards. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $64,803.44 according to HTX data, with a 0.46% drop over the past hour. After Bitcoin plunged below $60,000 on June 6, large buy orders emerged below BTC’s market price on Binance, an event Killa referred to as the "plunge protection team" returning. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, previously predicted the peak of this bull run in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and shifted to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

BlackRock, Coinbase and others launch $15 million Bitcoin Quantum Defense Fund.

BlackRock, Coinbase, Strategy, Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, Block, Blockstream, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Galaxy have formed the Bitcoin Security Consortium, pledging a combined $15 million over three years to fund Bitcoin security research and open-source development focused on quantum computing defense. The consortium does not hold or allocate funds; each member will directly select developers and researchers to support. It noted that it will not guide Bitcoin development or take positions on protocol changes. Mike Schmidt of Brink, a nonprofit developer funding organization, will coordinate the work on a volunteer basis. Currently, no quantum computer exists that can crack Bitcoin’s cryptography. Approximately 6.9 million BTC, worth $450 billion, are held in addresses that could be affected if such quantum computers emerge. Fixing this issue will require coordination among wallets, exchanges, miners, and users. Relevant efforts include proposals like BIP 360, which designs a new output type to limit public key exposure and pairs with post-quantum signature schemes. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that Core developers do important work, and the organization will provide additional funding for Bitcoin’s long-term security.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has deposited 3,126 bitcoins worth $203 million into Coinbase Prime.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF deposited 3,126 Bitcoin into Coinbase Prime over the past hour, valued at $203 million.

Glassnode: Defensive positions in Bitcoin options are being unwound, and demand for bearish hedging is weakening.

Glassnode released Bitcoin options market data showing that the Bitcoin put/call open interest ratio has dropped sharply from around 0.76 at the end of June to 0.52, indicating that defensive positions are being unwound, while BTC price remains stable near $67,000. At-the-money (ATM; BlockBeats note: An at-the-money option refers to an option whose strike price is closest to the current price of the underlying asset) implied volatility remains compressed: 34.3% for 1-month tenors and 40.8% for 6-month tenors, with the term structure sloping upward, signaling that short-term event risks are being underestimated by the market. The short-term 25-delta skew has plummeted to around 4%, reflecting weakened recent demand for bearish hedging, though medium- and long-term skew still holds at a defensive premium level of 11-12%.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings currently have an unrealized loss of $8.8 billion.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin is currently priced at $65,010. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are currently showing an unrealized loss of 13.9%, amounting to approximately $8.8 billion. As of July 20, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoin, with a total cost of $63.7 billion and an average cost of $75,476 per Bitcoin.

Analyst: Bitcoin holders as a whole have returned to profitability, but it is still too early to confirm the formation of a new bull market.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s profitable supply ratio has rebounded from 46.2% on June 30 to 57.5% as of July 22, crossing back above the 50% threshold and nearing 60%. However, analysts note that while Bitcoin holders as a whole are back in profit, this is not enough to confirm the start of a new bull market. CryptoQuant analysts state that past bear market ends typically require two conditions to be met simultaneously: the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains consistently above 1, and Bitcoin’s profitable supply ratio rises above 64%. This cycle saw a failed breakout earlier: between April 28 and June 1, the average SOPR of long-term holders stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the profitable supply ratio hit 67%, but both metrics subsequently fell. Since then, the 30-day SMA of long-term holders’ SOPR has remained below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, indicating that on-chain transfers by long-term holders are still predominantly unprofitable. Meanwhile, spot market demand remains weak, while institutional Bitcoin allocations have seen a slight rebound. Analysts add that while current profitability metrics are improving, whether the recovery can be sustained remains to be confirmed.

The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this month is 13%.

Prediction market platform Polymarket puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 in July at 13%. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $75,000 is 1%, while the probability of it falling to $60,000 stands at 14%.

Crypto whale sets 10 key targets, forecasts Bitcoin will retest the $100,000 level around March next year.

Whale "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" stated in a post that after closing its short positions, it quickly re-established long positions, as its medium- to long-term bullish view on Bitcoin remains unchanged. It believes the key dividing zone of the last bull market is around $60,000, and Bitcoin’s current mainstream mining cost is also concentrated between $50,000 and $60,000. Last month, Bitcoin dipped to $58,000 before rebounding rapidly, further confirming the support capacity of this zone. Over the past month, Bitcoin has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover in the $58,000–$63,000 range, and has re-stabilized near $66,000 after a pullback. Provided there are no systemic risks or major fundamental changes, the risk-reward ratio of chasing short positions at current levels is no longer favorable, and the market may see a volume-driven rally that breaks through $72,000. If the market structure does not change significantly, Bitcoin has a high probability of retesting $100,000 around March next year. Currently, US stocks—especially AI-related sectors—are trading at relatively high valuations and may face significant volatility going forward. Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks has decreased notably compared to previous cycles, and it is gradually moving toward an independent trend. The whale has set a trading invalidation zone for its current positions: if the market falls back to $61,500–$64,000 and the trend proves its judgment wrong, it will immediately close positions to control losses. It emphasized: "Views can be adjusted, but discipline must remain unwavering." Additionally, the latest public data shows that the whale "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" has set the position of its Binance real futures account "Jason leo133" to private.

BitMEX was hit with a lawsuit involving 623 Bitcoin (BTC) on the same day it announced its shutdown, and is accused of manipulating liquidations for profit.

Crypto derivatives trading platform BitMEX faced a class-action lawsuit on the same day it announced it would cease operations in September, accused of manipulating users’ forced liquidations and profiting via internal trading privileges and system mechanisms. BKX Services Inc. and David Namdar filed the suit Thursday with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging BitMEX fraudulently designed its liquidation mechanism, resulting in total user losses of 622.66 BTC. BKX claims losses of at least 305.81 BTC, while Namdar says his losses exceed 316.85 BTC. The plaintiffs allege BitMEX’s internal trading team accessed users’ private transaction data and continued trading while regular users were unable to close positions due to server freezes, profiting from forced liquidations. Court documents state BitMEX allowed users up to 100x leverage; when a user’s position triggered liquidation, the platform executed automatic liquidation even if collateral value remained higher than actual losses, transferring the remaining BTC to its insurance fund. The plaintiffs are seeking return of the withheld BTC, compensatory and punitive damages, and aim to represent U.S. users who traded BitMEX’s BTC swap products since July 23, 2018. The lawsuit has reignited longstanding external controversy over BitMEX’s liquidation mechanism. Previously, a class-action lawsuit over similar allegations was filed by users in 2020; that case was voluntarily dismissed on June 30, 2025, and does not preclude future filings.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of 225.1 million U.S. dollars yesterday.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of $225.1 million yesterday, ending a streak of seven consecutive trading days of net inflows. Breakdown by fund: IBIT saw a net outflow of $202.5 million; FBTC recorded a net outflow of $5.6 million; BITB’s net outflow stood at $7 million; ARKB’s net outflow hit $4.3 million; EZBC’s net outflow came to $5.6 million; BTCW’s net outflow totaled $5.1 million; while MSBT posted a net inflow of $5 million.

Bitcoin drops below $65,000, logging a 0.8% decline over the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, posting a 0.8% drop in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin treasury firm Empery makes a $20 million strategic preferred stock investment in AI data center developer CDP.

Crypto treasury firm Empery Digital (EMPD) disclosed that it has completed a strategic $20 million preferred equity investment in AI data center developer Cardinal Data Power (CDP). Post-transaction, EMPD holds an approximately 8% stake in CDP. The investment is a key component of CDP’s total $70 million Series A funding round, with all raised capital earmarked for launching its first AI data center campus in West Texas, the U.S.

Bitcoin Security Alliance Launched! Nine major firms including Strategy, BlackRock, and Coinbase have joined, committing $15 million to fund core developers and quantum-resistant research.

Nine financial institutions and crypto firms have jointly announced the launch of the Bitcoin Security Alliance, whose founding members include Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity, Galaxy, and Strategy, covering end-to-end entities across custody, trading, infrastructure, payments, and asset management. The alliance has pledged a total of $15 million over the next three years to fund developers and researchers working on Bitcoin security, including long-term efforts such as preparing Bitcoin for the future quantum computing era. Each member independently decides which developers, researchers, or organizations to allocate funds to. The alliance’s day-to-day operations are coordinated on a voluntary basis by Mike Schmidt, executive director of Brink, a nonprofit that funds Bitcoin open-source developers. The alliance clarifies that it will not develop or dictate Bitcoin protocols, take stances on specific protocol changes, or represent Bitcoin or its developers—Bitcoin’s development remains the work of its global, decentralized contributor community. It positions itself to follow the model of industry organizations that have long supported open-source software, providing resources and attention to developers without controlling underlying work. Strategy CEO Phong Le stated, “As long-term holders, ensuring Bitcoin’s security for generations is our biggest motivation”; BlackRock Global Head of Digital Assets Robert Mitchnick noted that the work of Bitcoin’s core developers is “extremely important,” adding that the pledge will provide “significant additional funding” for Bitcoin’s long-term security needs. The alliance will also serve as a trusted source of information on Bitcoin security for investors, the public, and media, with plans to release and regularly update Bitcoin security-related materials in the coming months.

CryptoQuant Founder: Bitcoin Spot Demand Is Weakening

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated in a post that spot demand for Bitcoin is weakening, while demand in the futures market remains positive but has dropped significantly compared to levels during the market rebound three months ago.

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders have been in a losing position for roughly nine consecutive months, with $65,000 emerging as a key level.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s short-term holders—defined as those holding coins for no more than 155 days—have been in a state of realized loss for roughly nine consecutive months, a characteristic typically aligned with bear market environments. Estimates put the average cost basis of these short-term holders at around $68,800, leaving the group under notable pressure. As Bitcoin attempts to establish a foothold above $65,000, short-term holders are projected to continue selling at a loss of approximately 4%.

Bithumb’s Mistaken Bitcoin Transfer Recovery Case to Get First Verdict on August 27

Digital Asset reports that a South Korean court will issue its first-instance ruling on August 27 regarding Bithumb’s accidental Bitcoin distribution incident. The involved users are accused of selling the mistakenly received BTC and holding approximately 194 million won in cash. Bithumb has previously filed unjust enrichment lawsuits against four users, with the highest case amount reaching around 500 million won. In February this year, Bithumb mistakenly recorded won points as Bitcoin when distributing event rewards, then launched a recovery process, stating that as of March 10, it had recovered 99% of the 1,788 BTC that remained unrecovered.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $69.1 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $72.7 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a total net inflow of $69.1 million yesterday. BlackRock’s IBIT led with a $38.8 million net inflow, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $21.5 million, Bitwise’s BITB at $5.4 million, and MSBT at $3.8 million. Grayscale’s GBTC, however, saw a net outflow of $38.3 million, while all other products had zero net flow. In the same period, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a total net inflow of $72.7 million: BlackRock’s ETHA took in $53.5 million, Fidelity’s FETH added $19.2 million, and all other products recorded no net flow.

Upbit will list o1 Exchange (O) trading pairs against KRW, Bitcoin, and USDT.

According to official announcements, Upbit will list o1 Exchange (O) trading pairs against the Korean won (KRW), Bitcoin, and USDT, with the launch scheduled for 3 PM local time on July 23.

Institutional buying demand for Bitcoin has dropped to a low, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net outflow of $2.1 billion over the past 30 days.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $2.1 billion over the past 30 days. New demand from Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury firms has stayed near zero for several consecutive weeks. He estimated that monthly demand from such treasury companies peaked at around $6.6 billion in August 2025, when BTC traded at roughly $115,000. Now, with BTC at about $65,000, this related demand has largely vanished.

Japan plans to launch a Bitcoin ETF in 2028, with individual funds likely to become the main source of inflows.

According to a report by the Nikkei, Japan is expected to launch a Bitcoin ETF as early as 2028. With the revised Financial Instruments and Exchange Act bringing crypto assets under the regulatory scope of financial products, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to adjust rules related to investment trusts to allow funds and ETFs to hold crypto assets as their primary investment target, with multiple asset management firms already considering participation. Interest in crypto assets among Japanese institutional investors is on the rise: a survey by Nomura Holdings and Laser Digital shows that around 79% of institutional investors and family offices plan to invest in crypto assets over the next three years. However, unlike U.S. Bitcoin ETFs which are driven primarily by institutional capital, Japan’s institutional investor base is relatively small, and household financial assets in the country have a high cash proportion, meaning funds from individual investors are likely to be the main source of inflows. Analysts project that Japan’s Bitcoin ETF could attract up to 3 trillion yen in inflows by fiscal 2028.

Tesla’s Q2 Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at 11,509, with the company confirming an impairment loss of $112 million.

Tesla’s Q2 financial report shows the company neither increased nor decreased its Bitcoin holdings, continuing to hold 11,509 BTC. Due to Bitcoin’s roughly 14% decline during the quarter, the automaker recorded a $112 million after-tax impairment loss on its digital assets. As a result, Tesla has not traded Bitcoin since 2022.

Analyst: Bitcoin shows signs of recovery, but its uptrend remains unconfirmed.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that since the 250th anniversary of U.S. Independence, Bitcoin has risen around 8% cumulatively, outperforming most assets. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have started to rebound, with net inflows of roughly $750 million in the past week. Balchunas noted that it is still hard to fully believe this rally has established a stable trend, but it is not unexpected that Bitcoin has rebounded after its prior pullback, adding that its future trajectory remains to be seen. Early Bitcoin holders have been continuously selling assets over the past nine months, which has been weighing on prices; if these holders cease selling, Bitcoin could rally.

Analyst: $68,000 is a key resistance level for Bitcoin, which may face significant selling pressure.

Bitcoin rose above $65,800, hitting a new high in over a month. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the sixth consecutive trading day, with $203 million flowing in on Tuesday, bringing the cumulative inflow since July 13 to roughly $779 million; spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $37.5 million on the same day, marking the third straight day of inflows. Bitfinex analysts note $68,000 is Bitcoin’s next key level, where the cost basis of short-term holders and the Q2 opening price converge. Investors who bought in the past five months and are still in the red may sell when prices return to their cost lines, so the first test of this level could trigger significant selling pressure. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin remains in a seasonal low-volume phase: as of July 19, its 30-day spot trading volume was only 62.4% of the full-year average. CME Bitcoin open interest for July has stayed below 100,000 BTC, hitting its lowest since October 2023, indicating weak institutional participation. ETF inflows have improved in the same period, but are mainly driven by BlackRock’s IBIT. Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn views $63,000 as the near-term support level. If Bitcoin holds above this level and reclaims the $65,000–$66,000 range, it could boost upward momentum for further tests; if it breaks below support, a new round of profit-taking may be triggered.

A prominent trader has noted that Bitcoin has completed its five-wave adjustment, with the technical structure indicating a potential bottom may have formed.

Renowned trader Killa (@KillaXBT) published an analysis noting that Bitcoin’s historical bear markets typically complete a 5-wave correction and form two key peaks. The first peak often occurs during the first sharp rebound after the market top—this is the "complacency peak" where the market widely believes a bull market has returned—after which prices usually go on to hit new lows. He points out that a similar structure has been observed in the 2014, 2022, and 2026 cycles. After the complacency peak forms, the market typically sees a "dead cat bounce" that establishes a temporary bottom; as market sentiment worsens and short positions become concentrated, a short squeeze then drives a price rebound, with the final bottom usually forming after a second key retest. Killa argues that BTC has now swept through the bottom formed by the dead cat bounce and completed a 5-wave correction structure similar to past cycles. From a structural perspective, the correction wave is complete, and the low point may already be in place. However, he remains cautious about the timeline: past bear markets typically lasted around 365 days to form their final bottom, but if the current cycle’s low has already emerged, it has only taken roughly 260 days—about 100 days ahead of historical timelines. He currently holds a 50/50 outlook, but believes the likelihood of a higher low forming next is greater than that of a significant new low.